Charlottesville: Stefan Kozlov vs Andres Martin

12 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Stefan Kozlov (60%) · Stefan Kozlov at 93¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 10

Stefan Kozlov93¢Andres Martin7¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Stefan Kozlov

Consensus Traders

Stefan Kozlov 60%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$19.81

Smart Money Entry

61¢ → 92.5¢

+52% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralStefan Kozlov at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Stefan Kozlov

12 of 20 top traders (60%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Stefan Kozlov93%

Andres Martin8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Andres Martin8 traders

Total Value$996.01

Total Shares2,940

Combined PnL-$19.01

Stefan Kozlov12 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares4,213

Combined PnL+$38.82

Andres Martin — 40%Stefan Kozlov — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Stefan Kozlov. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleStefan Kozlov 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpAndres Martin 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrStefan Kozlov 50% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedStefan Kozlov 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Stefan Kozlov 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99CTR	Andres Martinavg 48.1¢	$843.41	$815.61	-$27.8	46% 8241-9613 (17854)
FL Flaznorp	Stefan Kozlovavg 81.3¢	$734.45	$756.7	+$22.25	51% 23396-22163 (45559)
VeryLucky888	Stefan Kozlovavg 53¢	$556.5	$561.75	+$5.25	58% 44584-32454 (77038)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	Stefan Kozlovavg 49.1¢	$505.55	$556.52	+$45.82	50% 511-508 (1019)
TH thestingsnake	Stefan Kozlovavg 90.5¢	$367.56	$271.5	-$67.41	60% 4217-2820 (7037)
OM omnibus-076daa	Stefan Kozlovavg 52.7¢	$125.84	$188.2	+$62.36	50% 20158-20505 (40663)
65 6512395314597884	Stefan Kozlovavg 69¢	$207	$160.5	-$46.5	51% 4502-4378 (8880)
LI Limousin	Stefan Kozlovavg 48¢	$142.76	$153.74	+$10.98	56% 935-734 (1669)
NA NatoAlfista	Stefan Kozlovavg 51¢	$120.87	$127.98	+$7.11	50% 4085-4059 (8144)
NO NotJumpCTR	Andres Martinavg 10¢	$100	$95	-$5	44% 10214-13265 (23479)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Andres Martinavg 30.8¢	$33.54	$50.69	+$17.14	54% 901-783 (1684)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Andres Martinavg 52¢	$12.48	$11.16	-$1.32	56% 7597-6087 (13684)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Andres Martinavg 50¢	$10	$9.3	-$0.7	74% 2369-821 (3190)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Stefan Kozlovavg 79¢	$7.9	$7.95	+$0.05	52% 14113-12889 (27002)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Andres Martinavg 50¢	$7.5	$6.98	-$0.53	45% 10626-12799 (23425)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Andres Martinavg 52¢	$6.99	$6.25	-$0.74	48% 14365-15858 (30223)
TRCM<$100	Stefan Kozlovavg 58.2¢	$5.82	$5.35	-$0.47	55% 3997-3226 (7223)
PA pauleta23<$100	Stefan Kozlovavg 60.2¢	$5.82	$5.17	-$0.65	66% 23815-12054 (35869)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Stefan Kozlovavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.68	+$0.02	52% 8449-7707 (16156)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Andres Martinavg 21.8¢	$1.09	$1.03	-$0.07	48% 6153-6559 (12712)

nigiri99CTR

Andres Martin

Invested

$843.41

Value

$815.61

PnL

-$27.8

Record

46%

8241-9613 (17854)

Flaznorp

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$734.45

Value

$756.7

PnL

+$22.25

Record

51%

23396-22163 (45559)

VeryLucky888

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$556.5

Value

$561.75

PnL

+$5.25

Record

58%

44584-32454 (77038)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$505.55

Value

$556.52

PnL

+$45.82

Record

50%

511-508 (1019)

thestingsnake

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$367.56

Value

$271.5

PnL

-$67.41

Record

60%

4217-2820 (7037)

omnibus-076daa

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$125.84

Value

$188.2

PnL

+$62.36

Record

50%

20158-20505 (40663)

6512395314597884

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$207

Value

$160.5

PnL

-$46.5

Record

51%

4502-4378 (8880)

Limousin

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$142.76

Value

$153.74

PnL

+$10.98

Record

56%

935-734 (1669)

NatoAlfista

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$120.87

Value

$127.98

PnL

+$7.11

Record

50%

4085-4059 (8144)

NotJumpCTR

Andres Martin

Invested

$100

Value

$95

PnL

-$5

Record

44%

10214-13265 (23479)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Andres Martin

Invested

$33.54

Value

$50.69

PnL

+$17.14

Record

54%

901-783 (1684)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Andres Martin

Invested

$12.48

Value

$11.16

PnL

-$1.32

Record

56%

7597-6087 (13684)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Andres Martin

Invested

$10

Value

$9.3

PnL

-$0.7

Record

74%

2369-821 (3190)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$7.9

Value

$7.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

14113-12889 (27002)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Andres Martin

Invested

$7.5

Value

$6.98

PnL

-$0.53

Record

45%

10626-12799 (23425)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Andres Martin

Invested

$6.99

Value

$6.25

PnL

-$0.74

Record

48%

14365-15858 (30223)

TRCM<$100

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$5.82

Value

$5.35

PnL

-$0.47

Record

55%

3997-3226 (7223)

pauleta23<$100

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$5.82

Value

$5.17

PnL

-$0.65

Record

66%

23815-12054 (35869)

ameisgoat11<$100

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.68

PnL

+$0.02

Record

52%

8449-7707 (16156)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Andres Martin

Invested

$1.09

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$0.07

Record

48%

6153-6559 (12712)

Research grade

NeutralStefan Kozlov at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Stefan Kozlov

12 of 20 top traders (60%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Stefan Kozlov. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleStefan Kozlov 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpAndres Martin 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrStefan Kozlov 50% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedStefan Kozlov 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Stefan Kozlov 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Stefan Kozlov wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.