Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jonas Forejtek, while the market favors Moise Kouame (69%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Monastir: Moise Kouame vs Jonas Forejtek

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Jonas Forejtek (100%) · Jonas Forejtek at 32¢ · $668 held · ends Nov 18

Moise Kouame69¢Jonas Forejtek31¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jonas Forejtek

Consensus Traders

Jonas Forejtek 100%

Total Value

$667.6

Combined PnL

-$0.11

Smart Money Entry

28.4¢ → 31.5¢

+11% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralJonas Forejtek at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jonas Forejtek

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Moise Kouame 69%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Moise Kouame69%

Jonas Forejtek32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jonas Forejtek8 traders

Total Value$667.6

Total Shares2,307

Combined PnL-$0.11

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Jonas Forejtekavg 29¢	$143.01	$172.6	+$29.59	57% 4029-3044 (7073)
38 38791873984189CTR	Jonas Forejtekavg 28.8¢	$128.57	$156.33	+$27.77	48% 1332-1446 (2778)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Jonas Forejtekavg 29.3¢	$169.4	$117.18	-$2.22	42% 110-152 (262)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Jonas Forejtekavg 29¢	$164.37	$111.86	-$52.51	51% 1833-1787 (3620)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Jonas Forejtekavg 25¢	$90.16	$86.55	-$3.61	31% 379-844 (1223)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Jonas Forejtekavg 30¢	$19.5	$20.15	+$0.65	23% 120-406 (526)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Jonas Forejtekavg 29¢	$1.45	$1.75	+$0.3	32% 285-613 (898)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Jonas Forejtekavg 24¢	$1.25	$1.17	-$0.08	30% 373-864 (1237)

RN1CTR

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$143.01

Value

$172.6

PnL

+$29.59

Record

57%

4029-3044 (7073)

38791873984189CTR

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$128.57

Value

$156.33

PnL

+$27.77

Record

48%

1332-1446 (2778)

thirdt1meCTR

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$169.4

Value

$117.18

PnL

-$2.22

Record

42%

110-152 (262)

FlaznorpCTR

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$164.37

Value

$111.86

PnL

-$52.51

Record

51%

1833-1787 (3620)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$90.16

Value

$86.55

PnL

-$3.61

Record

31%

379-844 (1223)

babybellsCTR<$100

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$19.5

Value

$20.15

PnL

+$0.65

Record

23%

120-406 (526)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.75

PnL

+$0.3

Record

32%

285-613 (898)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Jonas Forejtek

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.17

PnL

-$0.08

Record

30%

373-864 (1237)

Research grade

NeutralJonas Forejtek at 32%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Jonas Forejtek

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Moise Kouame 69%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jonas Forejtek wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.6%

31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$197.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

297.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.