Lima: Zdenek Kolar vs Joao Lucas Da Silva
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Joao Lucas Da Silva (60%) · Joao Lucas Da Silva at 65¢ · $275 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
Joao Lucas Da Silva
5
Joao Lucas Da Silva 60%
$275.1
$4.52
69¢ → 64.5¢
-7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralJoao Lucas Da Silva at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Joao Lucas Da Silva. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 69¢ | $134.78 | $127.94 | -$6.84 | 50% 1383-1403 (2786) |
CI cigarettesCTR | Zdenek Kolaravg 31¢ | $93 | $106.5 | +$13.5 | 52% 5311-4816 (10127) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 69¢ | $30.85 | $29.29 | -$1.56 | 29% 157-376 (533) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 69¢ | $10.35 | $9.83 | -$0.52 | 48% 214-230 (444) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Zdenek Kolaravg 32¢ | $1.6 | $1.55 | -$0.05 | 24% 201-642 (843) |
Invested
$134.78
Value
$127.94
PnL
-$6.84
Record
50%
1383-1403 (2786)
Invested
$93
Value
$106.5
PnL
+$13.5
Record
52%
5311-4816 (10127)
Invested
$30.85
Value
$29.29
PnL
-$1.56
Record
29%
157-376 (533)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$10.35
Value
$9.83
PnL
-$0.52
Record
48%
214-230 (444)
Invested
$1.6
Value
$1.55
PnL
-$0.05
Record
24%
201-642 (843)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.