Kobe: Yuta Kikuchi vs Taisei Ichikawa

11 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Taisei Ichikawa (65%) · Taisei Ichikawa at 83¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 22

Yuta Kikuchi18¢Taisei Ichikawa82¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Taisei Ichikawa

Consensus Traders

Taisei Ichikawa 65%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.3K

Combined PnL

$11.21

Smart Money Entry

81.1¢ → 82.5¢

+2% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralTaisei Ichikawa at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Taisei Ichikawa

11 of 17 top traders (65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yuta Kikuchi18%

Taisei Ichikawa83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Taisei Ichikawa11 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares9,234

Combined PnL+$25

Yuta Kikuchi6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares7,254

Combined PnL-$13.79

Taisei Ichikawa — 65%Yuta Kikuchi — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Taisei Ichikawaavg 82¢	$6.2K	$6.3K	+$113.85	38% 1272-2102 (3374)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Yuta Kikuchiavg 18¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$33.77	50% 2792-2794 (5586)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Yuta Kikuchiavg 42.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$0.54	50% 1055-1041 (2096)
└ Taisei Ichikawa leg	Taisei Ichikawaavg 50¢	$525	$866.25	+$341.25
└ Yuta Kikuchi leg	Yuta Kikuchiavg 42.4¢	$582.3	$240.51	-$341.79
FL Flaznorp	Taisei Ichikawaavg 77¢	$623.17	$557.74	-$65.43	49% 4528-4804 (9332)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Taisei Ichikawaavg 81¢	$338.51	$351.04	+$12.53	49% 605-633 (1238)
BA babybells	Taisei Ichikawaavg 76.8¢	$272.71	$286.84	+$18.42	33% 246-508 (754)
38 38791873984189	Taisei Ichikawaavg 81¢	$290	$229.64	-$60.35	48% 3837-4187 (8024)
RN1CTR<$100	Yuta Kikuchiavg 34¢	$72.9	$98.63	+$25.73	54% 5924-4982 (10906)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Taisei Ichikawaavg 81.8¢	$49.92	$50.93	+$1.01	32% 281-611 (892)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yuta Kikuchiavg 17¢	$26.37	$25.87	-$0.5	38% 1296-2132 (3428)
PA Pan9X<$100	Taisei Ichikawaavg 53¢	$24.38	$23.92	-$0.46	50% 2084-2112 (4196)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Taisei Ichikawaavg 65¢	$14.8	$18.2	+$3.4	83% 929-191 (1120)
EF efntrick<$100	Taisei Ichikawaavg 52¢	$17.23	$17.23	-$0	45% 107-129 (236)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Yuta Kikuchiavg 15.6¢	$19.51	$16.9	-$2.61	35% 233-442 (675)
TH thirdt1me<$100	Taisei Ichikawaavg 71¢	$48.01	$13.64	+$0.89	48% 354-381 (735)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yuta Kikuchiavg 20.4¢	$14.25	$11.53	-$2.72	38% 1297-2114 (3411)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Taisei Ichikawaavg 56¢	$3.1	$4.23	+$1.13	45% 440-539 (979)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Yuta Kikuchiavg 16¢	$0.8	$0.88	+$0.07	52% 203-184 (387)

Limousin

Taisei Ichikawa

Invested

$6,176.28

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$113.85

Record

38%

1272-2102 (3374)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Yuta Kikuchi

Invested

$1,215.68

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$33.77

Record

50%

2792-2794 (5586)

NotJumpARB<$100

Yuta Kikuchi

Invested

$1,107.3

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$0.54

Record

50%

1055-1041 (2096)

Both legs:

Taisei Ichikawa$52550¢+$341.25

Yuta Kikuchi$582.342.4¢-$341.79

Flaznorp

Taisei Ichikawa

Invested

$623.17

Value

$557.74

PnL

-$65.43

Record

49%

4528-4804 (9332)

CandleHammerDrums

Taisei Ichikawa

Invested

$338.51

Value

$351.04

PnL

+$12.53

Record

49%

605-633 (1238)

babybells

Taisei Ichikawa

Invested

$272.71

Value

$286.84

PnL

+$18.42

Record

33%

246-508 (754)

38791873984189

Taisei Ichikawa

Invested

$290

Value

$229.64

PnL

-$60.35

Record

48%

3837-4187 (8024)

RN1CTR<$100

Yuta Kikuchi

Invested

$72.9

Value

$98.63

PnL

+$25.73

Record

54%

5924-4982 (10906)

BillBenter2026<$100

Taisei Ichikawa

Invested

$49.92

Value

$50.93

PnL

+$1.01

Record

32%

281-611 (892)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yuta Kikuchi

Invested

$26.37

Value

$25.87

PnL

-$0.5

Record

38%

1296-2132 (3428)

Pan9X<$100

Taisei Ichikawa

Invested

$24.38

Value

$23.92

PnL

-$0.46

Record

50%

2084-2112 (4196)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Taisei Ichikawa

Invested

$14.8

Value

$18.2

PnL

+$3.4

Record

83%

929-191 (1120)

efntrick<$100

Taisei Ichikawa

Invested

$17.23

Value

$17.23

PnL

-$0

Record

45%

107-129 (236)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Yuta Kikuchi

Invested

$19.51

Value

$16.9

PnL

-$2.61

Record

35%

233-442 (675)

thirdt1me<$100

Taisei Ichikawa

Invested

$48.01

Value

$13.64

PnL

+$0.89

Record

48%

354-381 (735)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yuta Kikuchi

Invested

$14.25

Value

$11.53

PnL

-$2.72

Record

38%

1297-2114 (3411)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Taisei Ichikawa

Invested

$3.1

Value

$4.23

PnL

+$1.13

Record

45%

440-539 (979)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Yuta Kikuchi

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.88

PnL

+$0.07

Record

52%

203-184 (387)

Research grade

NeutralTaisei Ichikawa at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Taisei Ichikawa

11 of 17 top traders (65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Taisei Ichikawa wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.