Montevideo: Nicolas Kicker vs Boris Arias

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Nicolas Kicker (50%) · Nicolas Kicker at 50¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 22

Nicolas Kicker50¢Boris Arias50¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nicolas Kicker

Consensus Traders

Nicolas Kicker 50%

Total Value

$11.6K

Combined PnL

$753.24

Smart Money Entry

75.8¢ → 50.4¢

-33% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNicolas Kicker at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nicolas Kicker

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nicolas Kicker50%

Boris Arias50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Boris Arias7 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares12,666

Combined PnL+$3.4K

Nicolas Kicker7 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares10,617

Combined PnL$-2.7K

Boris Arias — 50%Nicolas Kicker — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Nicolas Kicker. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Nicolas Kicker) and the top 1000 (13 on Boris Arias) disagree here.

sharpBoris Arias 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNicolas Kicker 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNicolas Kicker 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Boris Arias 54% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NoAddressCTR	Boris Ariasavg 20.3¢	$2.2K	$5.5K	+$3.2K	— 1-0 (1)
38 38791873984189	Nicolas Kickeravg 76.3¢	$3.7K	$2.5K	$-1.3K	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
65 6512395314597884	Nicolas Kickeravg 70¢	$2.8K	$2.0K	-$782	50% 4044-4051 (8095)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR	Boris Ariasavg 41.4¢	$449.86	$538.63	+$88.77	83% 962-202 (1164)
poshposh	Nicolas Kickeravg 90.9¢	$932.63	$517.33	-$415.3	49% 1311-1390 (2701)
GA Gaditima	Nicolas Kickeravg 92¢	$460	$252.25	-$207.75	49% 386-404 (790)
NO NotJumpCTR	Boris Ariasavg 49.8¢	$1.2K	$119.98	+$1.09	50% 1122-1124 (2246)
SH shiifoo<$100	Nicolas Kickeravg 62.5¢	$94.5	$76.29	-$18.21	60% 1467-969 (2436)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Boris Ariasavg 5¢	$6.55	$64.32	+$57.77	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Boris Ariasavg 3.3¢	$2.87	$42.23	+$39.36	38% 1342-2182 (3524)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Boris Ariasavg 4.6¢	$2.28	$24.28	+$22	50% 2177-2197 (4374)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Nicolas Kickeravg 50.9¢	$20.54	$20.36	-$0.18	46% 631-739 (1370)
VeryLucky888<$100	Nicolas Kickeravg 93.5¢	$9.35	$5.05	-$4.31	53% 1889-1648 (3537)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Boris Ariasavg 5¢	$0.16	$1.55	+$1.39	44% 92-115 (207)

NoAddressCTR

Boris Arias

Invested

$2,248.31

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

—

1-0 (1)

38791873984189

Nicolas Kicker

Invested

$3,731.8

Value

$2.5K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

6512395314597884

Nicolas Kicker

Invested

$2,800

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$782

Record

50%

4044-4051 (8095)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR

Boris Arias

Invested

$449.86

Value

$538.63

PnL

+$88.77

Record

83%

962-202 (1164)

poshposh

Nicolas Kicker

Invested

$932.63

Value

$517.33

PnL

-$415.3

Record

49%

1311-1390 (2701)

Gaditima

Nicolas Kicker

Invested

$460

Value

$252.25

PnL

-$207.75

Record

49%

386-404 (790)

NotJumpCTR

Boris Arias

Invested

$1,168.84

Value

$119.98

PnL

+$1.09

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

shiifoo<$100

Nicolas Kicker

Invested

$94.5

Value

$76.29

PnL

-$18.21

Record

60%

1467-969 (2436)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Boris Arias

Invested

$6.55

Value

$64.32

PnL

+$57.77

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Boris Arias

Invested

$2.87

Value

$42.23

PnL

+$39.36

Record

38%

1342-2182 (3524)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Boris Arias

Invested

$2.28

Value

$24.28

PnL

+$22

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Nicolas Kicker

Invested

$20.54

Value

$20.36

PnL

-$0.18

Record

46%

631-739 (1370)

VeryLucky888<$100

Nicolas Kicker

Invested

$9.35

Value

$5.05

PnL

-$4.31

Record

53%

1889-1648 (3537)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Boris Arias

Invested

$0.16

Value

$1.55

PnL

+$1.39

Record

44%

92-115 (207)

Research grade

NeutralNicolas Kicker at 50%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Nicolas Kicker

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Nicolas Kicker. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Nicolas Kicker) and the top 1000 (13 on Boris Arias) disagree here.

sharpBoris Arias 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNicolas Kicker 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNicolas Kicker 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Boris Arias 54% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nicolas Kicker wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.