Monastir: Yannik Kelm vs Pedro Vives Marcos

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Pedro Vives Marcos (92%) · Pedro Vives Marcos at 100¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 16

Yannik Kelm<1¢Pedro Vives Marcos>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Pedro Vives Marcos

Consensus Traders

Pedro Vives Marcos 92%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.0K

Combined PnL

$4.4K

Smart Money Entry

70.3¢ → 100¢

+42% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralPedro Vives Marcos at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pedro Vives Marcos

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yannik Kelm0%

Pedro Vives Marcos100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pedro Vives Marcos11 traders

Total Value$14.8K

Total Shares15,270

Combined PnL+$4.4K

Yannik Kelm1 trader

Total Value$1.1

Total Shares10

Combined PnL-$0.4

Pedro Vives Marcos — 92%Yannik Kelm — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Pedro Vives Marcos. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePedro Vives Marcos 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpPedro Vives Marcos 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrPedro Vives Marcos 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedPedro Vives Marcos 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Pedro Vives Marcos 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thirdt1me	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 68.6¢	$4.8K	$6.1K	+$1.7K	58% 231-170 (401)
38 38791873984189	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 67.8¢	$4.2K	$4.5K	+$1.9K	48% 72180-77921 (150101)
FL Flaznorp	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 69.6¢	$1.5K	$2.1K	+$624.01	52% 49502-46467 (95969)
LI Limousin	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 82.7¢	$508.78	$514.67	+$5.9	46% 2784-3230 (6014)
MA MadridTime	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 88.8¢	$491.35	$491.76	+$0.41	45% 2690-3266 (5956)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 69.6¢	$311.05	$446.86	+$135.81	47% 2267-2575 (4842)
TH thestingsnake	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 86¢	$605	$286.6	+$1.15	60% 4654-3141 (7795)
0xheavy888	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 69¢	$157.71	$202.28	+$44.57	56% 9021-7117 (16138)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 89.5¢	$222.33	$189.38	-$32.95	45% 2757-3338 (6095)
└ Pedro Vives Marcos leg	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 89.5¢	$142.98	$140.6	-$2.38
└ Yannik Kelm leg	Yannik Kelmavg 31.7¢	$134.46	$48.78	-$30.57
LO looppau<$100	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 99.9¢	$96.13	$96.18	+$0.05	99% 16244-134 (16378)
machinelearned<$100	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 74¢	$17	$9.62	+$0.12	54% 10552-8958 (19510)
LI LightParadox<$100	Pedro Vives Marcosavg 85¢	$5	$4.43	+$0.18	45% 2685-3222 (5907)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100	Yannik Kelmavg 15¢	$10	$1.1	-$0.4	46% 33777-39454 (73231)

thirdt1me

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

$4,789.79

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

58%

231-170 (401)

38791873984189

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

$4,240.46

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

48%

72180-77921 (150101)

Flaznorp

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

$1,499.13

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$624.01

Record

52%

49502-46467 (95969)

Limousin

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

$508.78

Value

$514.67

PnL

+$5.9

Record

46%

2784-3230 (6014)

MadridTime

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

$491.35

Value

$491.76

PnL

+$0.41

Record

45%

2690-3266 (5956)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

$311.05

Value

$446.86

PnL

+$135.81

Record

47%

2267-2575 (4842)

thestingsnake

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

$605

Value

$286.6

PnL

+$1.15

Record

60%

4654-3141 (7795)

0xheavy888

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

$157.71

Value

$202.28

PnL

+$44.57

Record

56%

9021-7117 (16138)

VenusianARB<$100

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

$222.33

Value

$189.38

PnL

-$32.95

Record

45%

2757-3338 (6095)

Both legs:

Pedro Vives Marcos$142.9889.5¢-$2.38

Yannik Kelm$134.4631.7¢-$30.57

looppau<$100

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

$96.13

Value

$96.18

PnL

+$0.05

Record

99%

16244-134 (16378)

machinelearned<$100

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

$17

Value

$9.62

PnL

+$0.12

Record

54%

10552-8958 (19510)

LightParadox<$100

Pedro Vives Marcos

Invested

Value

$4.43

PnL

+$0.18

Record

45%

2685-3222 (5907)

ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100

Yannik Kelm

Invested

$10

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$0.4

Record

46%

33777-39454 (73231)

Research grade

NeutralPedro Vives Marcos at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Pedro Vives Marcos

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Pedro Vives Marcos. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePedro Vives Marcos 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpPedro Vives Marcos 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrPedro Vives Marcos 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedPedro Vives Marcos 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Pedro Vives Marcos 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pedro Vives Marcos wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.