BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Holger Rune

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Holger Rune (44%) · Holger Rune at 71¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 18

Miomir Kecmanovic30¢Holger Rune70¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Holger Rune

Consensus Traders

Holger Rune 44%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$15.87

Smart Money Entry

69.9¢ → 70.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralHolger Rune at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Holger Rune

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Miomir Kecmanovic30%

Holger Rune71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Holger Rune4 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,845

Combined PnL+$17.28

Miomir Kecmanovic5 traders

Total Value$724.79

Total Shares2,492

Combined PnL-$1.4

Holger Rune — 44%Miomir Kecmanovic — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Holger Rune. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMiomir Kecmanovic 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedMiomir Kecmanovic 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Miomir Kecmanovic 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Holger Runeavg 70¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$11.68	61% 925-593 (1518)
GC GC-PCTR	Miomir Kecmanovicavg 29¢	$290	$290	-$0	20% 98-381 (479)
38 38791873984189	Holger Runeavg 70¢	$280	$282	+$2	48% 1363-1480 (2843)
NM NM-PCTR	Miomir Kecmanovicavg 29¢	$247.65	$247.65	-$0	59% 3477-2367 (5844)
IS ismail40CTR	Miomir Kecmanovicavg 29¢	$126.79	$128.98	+$2.19	2% 3-128 (131)
PA Pan9X<$100	Holger Runeavg 68.4¢	$95.85	$76.94	+$3.57	48% 668-712 (1380)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Miomir Kecmanovicavg 31¢	$49.15	$45.98	-$3.17	30% 375-876 (1251)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Miomir Kecmanovicavg 30¢	$12.6	$12.18	-$0.42	30% 378-870 (1248)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Holger Runeavg 70¢	$3.5	$3.53	+$0.02	32% 291-617 (908)

darkumbreon88

Holger Rune

Invested

$1,635.7

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$11.68

Record

61%

925-593 (1518)

GC-PCTR

Miomir Kecmanovic

Invested

$290

Value

$290

PnL

-$0

Record

20%

98-381 (479)

38791873984189

Holger Rune

Invested

$280

Value

$282

PnL

+$2

Record

48%

1363-1480 (2843)

NM-PCTR

Miomir Kecmanovic

Invested

$247.65

Value

$247.65

PnL

-$0

Record

59%

3477-2367 (5844)

ismail40CTR

Miomir Kecmanovic

Invested

$126.79

Value

$128.98

PnL

+$2.19

Record

3-128 (131)

Pan9X<$100

Holger Rune

Invested

$95.85

Value

$76.94

PnL

+$3.57

Record

48%

668-712 (1380)

LimousinCTR<$100

Miomir Kecmanovic

Invested

$49.15

Value

$45.98

PnL

-$3.17

Record

30%

375-876 (1251)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Miomir Kecmanovic

Invested

$12.6

Value

$12.18

PnL

-$0.42

Record

30%

378-870 (1248)

ameisgoat11<$100

Holger Rune

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.53

PnL

+$0.02

Record

32%

291-617 (908)

Research grade

NeutralHolger Rune at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Holger Rune

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Holger Rune. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMiomir Kecmanovic 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedMiomir Kecmanovic 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Miomir Kecmanovic 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Holger Rune wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.