Sydney: Jason Jung vs Herman Hoeyeraal

10 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Jason Jung (48%) · Jason Jung at 93¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 22

Jason Jung93¢Herman Hoeyeraal7¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jason Jung

Consensus Traders

Jason Jung 48%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$108.92

Smart Money Entry

72.8¢ → 93¢

+28% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralJason Jung at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jason Jung

10 of 21 top traders (48%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Jason Jung93%

Herman Hoeyeraal7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Herman Hoeyeraal11 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares4,351

Combined PnL-$221.2

Jason Jung10 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares3,154

Combined PnL+$330.12

Herman Hoeyeraal — 52%Jason Jung — 48%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Jason Jung. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHerman Hoeyeraal 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Herman Hoeyeraal 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpCTR	Herman Hoeyeraalavg 49.8¢	$1.9K	$922.45	-$24.53	50% 1055-1041 (2096)
FL Flaznorp	Jason Jungavg 90.2¢	$815.62	$824.29	+$8.67	49% 4528-4804 (9332)
OM omnibus-076daa	Jason Jungavg 57¢	$536.39	$814	+$277.61	46% 597-711 (1308)
VE Venusian	Jason Jungavg 87.9¢	$454.49	$445.25	-$9.24	38% 1296-2132 (3428)
CA CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100	Herman Hoeyeraalavg 25.9¢	$390.9	$234.57	-$156.33	49% 605-633 (1238)
└ Herman Hoeyeraal leg	Herman Hoeyeraalavg 25.9¢	$304.75	$140.99	-$163.76
└ Jason Jung leg	Jason Jungavg 81¢	$86.14	$93.58	+$7.44
GA Gaditima	Jason Jungavg 48¢	$174.84	$187.59	+$12.75	49% 363-380 (743)
38 38791873984189CTR	Herman Hoeyeraalavg 38.2¢	$218.58	$171.72	-$46.86	48% 3837-4187 (8024)
BA babybells	Jason Jungavg 75.7¢	$178.52	$168.39	-$10.13	33% 246-508 (754)
MA MadridTime	Jason Jungavg 70¢	$107.74	$142.37	+$34.63	38% 1297-2114 (3411)
PA Pan9XCTR	Herman Hoeyeraalavg 46.4¢	$100.18	$84.66	+$10.17	50% 2084-2112 (4196)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Jason Jungavg 72.3¢	$47.75	$60.39	+$12.64	32% 281-611 (892)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Herman Hoeyeraalavg 11¢	$55	$47.5	-$7.5	33% 441-879 (1320)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Herman Hoeyeraalavg 31.7¢	$227.88	$46.41	-$156.28	48% 354-381 (735)
SC SchruteBucks<$100	Jason Jungavg 90¢	$45	$46.25	+$1.25	27% 192-517 (709)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Herman Hoeyeraalavg 7.6¢	$36.2	$40.51	+$4.3	50% 2792-2794 (5586)
TRCM<$100	Jason Jungavg 81.1¢	$28.4	$30.28	+$1.88	17% 94-455 (549)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Herman Hoeyeraalavg 50¢	$25.74	$26.25	+$0.51	55% 639-517 (1156)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Herman Hoeyeraalavg 28¢	$24.36	$24.79	+$0.43	37% 1288-2159 (3447)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Jason Jungavg 71¢	$10.65	$10.72	+$0.07	45% 440-539 (979)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Herman Hoeyeraalavg 49¢	$7.32	$7.62	+$0.3	48% 447-488 (935)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Herman Hoeyeraalavg 30¢	$2.85	$1	-$1.85	38% 1272-2102 (3374)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Herman Hoeyeraalavg 15¢	$1.77	$0.82	+$0.1	48% 2449-2682 (5131)

NotJumpCTR

Herman Hoeyeraal

Invested

$1,922.21

Value

$922.45

PnL

-$24.53

Record

50%

1055-1041 (2096)

Flaznorp

Jason Jung

Invested

$815.62

Value

$824.29

PnL

+$8.67

Record

49%

4528-4804 (9332)

omnibus-076daa

Jason Jung

Invested

$536.39

Value

$814

PnL

+$277.61

Record

46%

597-711 (1308)

Venusian

Jason Jung

Invested

$454.49

Value

$445.25

PnL

-$9.24

Record

38%

1296-2132 (3428)

CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100

Herman Hoeyeraal

Invested

$390.9

Value

$234.57

PnL

-$156.33

Record

49%

605-633 (1238)

Both legs:

Herman Hoeyeraal$304.7525.9¢-$163.76

Jason Jung$86.1481¢+$7.44

Gaditima

Jason Jung

Invested

$174.84

Value

$187.59

PnL

+$12.75

Record

49%

363-380 (743)

38791873984189CTR

Herman Hoeyeraal

Invested

$218.58

Value

$171.72

PnL

-$46.86

Record

48%

3837-4187 (8024)

babybells

Jason Jung

Invested

$178.52

Value

$168.39

PnL

-$10.13

Record

33%

246-508 (754)

MadridTime

Jason Jung

Invested

$107.74

Value

$142.37

PnL

+$34.63

Record

38%

1297-2114 (3411)

Pan9XCTR

Herman Hoeyeraal

Invested

$100.18

Value

$84.66

PnL

+$10.17

Record

50%

2084-2112 (4196)

BillBenter2026<$100

Jason Jung

Invested

$47.75

Value

$60.39

PnL

+$12.64

Record

32%

281-611 (892)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Herman Hoeyeraal

Invested

$55

Value

$47.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

33%

441-879 (1320)

thirdt1meCTR

Herman Hoeyeraal

Invested

$227.88

Value

$46.41

PnL

-$156.28

Record

48%

354-381 (735)

SchruteBucks<$100

Jason Jung

Invested

$45

Value

$46.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

27%

192-517 (709)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Herman Hoeyeraal

Invested

$36.2

Value

$40.51

PnL

+$4.3

Record

50%

2792-2794 (5586)

TRCM<$100

Jason Jung

Invested

$28.4

Value

$30.28

PnL

+$1.88

Record

17%

94-455 (549)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Herman Hoeyeraal

Invested

$25.74

Value

$26.25

PnL

+$0.51

Record

55%

639-517 (1156)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Herman Hoeyeraal

Invested

$24.36

Value

$24.79

PnL

+$0.43

Record

37%

1288-2159 (3447)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Jason Jung

Invested

$10.65

Value

$10.72

PnL

+$0.07

Record

45%

440-539 (979)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Herman Hoeyeraal

Invested

$7.32

Value

$7.62

PnL

+$0.3

Record

48%

447-488 (935)

LimousinCTR<$100

Herman Hoeyeraal

Invested

$2.85

Value

PnL

-$1.85

Record

38%

1272-2102 (3374)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Herman Hoeyeraal

Invested

$1.77

Value

$0.82

PnL

+$0.1

Record

48%

2449-2682 (5131)

Research grade

NeutralJason Jung at 93%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jason Jung

10 of 21 top traders (48%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Jason Jung. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHerman Hoeyeraal 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Herman Hoeyeraal 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jason Jung wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.