Montevideo: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Ignacio Carou

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Carlos Sanchez Jover (56%) · Carlos Sanchez Jover at 85¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 22

Carlos Sanchez Jover85¢Ignacio Carou15¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Carlos Sanchez Jover

Consensus Traders

Carlos Sanchez Jover 56%

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

-$2.86

Smart Money Entry

82.4¢ → 85.4¢

+4% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralCarlos Sanchez Jover at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Carlos Sanchez Jover

9 of 16 top traders (56%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Carlos Sanchez Jover85%

Ignacio Carou15%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Carlos Sanchez Jover9 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares5,638

Combined PnL-$112.77

Ignacio Carou7 traders

Total Value$215.75

Total Shares1,340

Combined PnL+$109.91

Carlos Sanchez Jover — 56%Ignacio Carou — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

46% of non-arb traders are on Carlos Sanchez Jover. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCarlos Sanchez Jover 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedIgnacio Carou 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Ignacio Carou 54% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Carlos Sanchez Joveravg 96.1¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$221.84	38% 1332-2185 (3517)
NO NotJump	Carlos Sanchez Joveravg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$2.1	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
VE Venusian	Carlos Sanchez Joveravg 91.6¢	$992.1	$945.11	-$20.42	38% 1354-2217 (3571)
38 38791873984189	Carlos Sanchez Joveravg 80.9¢	$1.5K	$698.01	+$173.38	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
LI LightParadox	Carlos Sanchez Joveravg 84.2¢	$437.58	$422.42	-$15.16	38% 1348-2243 (3591)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Carlos Sanchez Joveravg 80.8¢	$280.96	$285.69	+$4.73	48% 638-680 (1318)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Carlos Sanchez Joveravg 94¢	$238.23	$216.58	-$21.65	50% 2851-2894 (5745)
MA MadridTime	Carlos Sanchez Joveravg 90.7¢	$154.33	$145.05	-$9.28	38% 1354-2191 (3545)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Ignacio Carouavg 6¢	$53.03	$137.51	+$84.47	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Ignacio Carouavg 18.9¢	$38.95	$42.14	+$3.19	46% 643-756 (1399)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Carlos Sanchez Joveravg 92¢	$42.01	$41.59	-$0.42	36% 256-453 (709)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Ignacio Carouavg 4.8¢	$3.79	$11.73	+$7.94	48% 2555-2763 (5318)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Ignacio Carouavg 5¢	$3.75	$11.1	+$7.35	50% 2190-2198 (4388)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Ignacio Carouavg 8¢	$3.6	$6.66	+$3.06	34% 476-910 (1386)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Ignacio Carouavg 6.6¢	$2.62	$5.87	+$3.25	39% 1579-2471 (4050)
RN1CTR<$100	Ignacio Carouavg 2¢	$0.1	$0.74	+$0.64	54% 6019-5096 (11115)

Limousin

Carlos Sanchez Jover

Invested

$1,436.97

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$221.84

Record

38%

1332-2185 (3517)

NotJump

Carlos Sanchez Jover

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$2.1

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

Venusian

Carlos Sanchez Jover

Invested

$992.1

Value

$945.11

PnL

-$20.42

Record

38%

1354-2217 (3571)

38791873984189

Carlos Sanchez Jover

Invested

$1,538.39

Value

$698.01

PnL

+$173.38

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

LightParadox

Carlos Sanchez Jover

Invested

$437.58

Value

$422.42

PnL

-$15.16

Record

38%

1348-2243 (3591)

CandleHammerDrums

Carlos Sanchez Jover

Invested

$280.96

Value

$285.69

PnL

+$4.73

Record

48%

638-680 (1318)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Carlos Sanchez Jover

Invested

$238.23

Value

$216.58

PnL

-$21.65

Record

50%

2851-2894 (5745)

MadridTime

Carlos Sanchez Jover

Invested

$154.33

Value

$145.05

PnL

-$9.28

Record

38%

1354-2191 (3545)

FlaznorpCTR

Ignacio Carou

Invested

$53.03

Value

$137.51

PnL

+$84.47

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Ignacio Carou

Invested

$38.95

Value

$42.14

PnL

+$3.19

Record

46%

643-756 (1399)

thestingsnake<$100

Carlos Sanchez Jover

Invested

$42.01

Value

$41.59

PnL

-$0.42

Record

36%

256-453 (709)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Ignacio Carou

Invested

$3.79

Value

$11.73

PnL

+$7.94

Record

48%

2555-2763 (5318)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Ignacio Carou

Invested

$3.75

Value

$11.1

PnL

+$7.35

Record

50%

2190-2198 (4388)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Ignacio Carou

Invested

$3.6

Value

$6.66

PnL

+$3.06

Record

34%

476-910 (1386)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Ignacio Carou

Invested

$2.62

Value

$5.87

PnL

+$3.25

Record

39%

1579-2471 (4050)

RN1CTR<$100

Ignacio Carou

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.74

PnL

+$0.64

Record

54%

6019-5096 (11115)

Research grade

NeutralCarlos Sanchez Jover at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Carlos Sanchez Jover

9 of 16 top traders (56%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

46% of non-arb traders are on Carlos Sanchez Jover. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCarlos Sanchez Jover 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedIgnacio Carou 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Ignacio Carou 54% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Carlos Sanchez Jover wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.9%

85.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.