Kobe: Maximus Jones vs Yuki Mochizuki

14 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Maximus Jones (70%) · Maximus Jones at 97¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 22

Maximus Jones97¢Yuki Mochizuki3¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Maximus Jones

Consensus Traders

Maximus Jones 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.5K

Combined PnL

$307.01

Smart Money Entry

88.9¢ → 97.4¢

+10% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralMaximus Jones at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Maximus Jones

14 of 20 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Maximus Jones97%

Yuki Mochizuki3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Maximus Jones14 traders

Total Value$14.3K

Total Shares14,957

Combined PnL+$912.42

Yuki Mochizuki6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares12,953

Combined PnL-$605.41

Maximus Jones — 70%Yuki Mochizuki — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Maximus Jonesavg 92.3¢	$9.4K	$9.8K	+$441.35	38% 1276-2118 (3394)
FL Flaznorp	Maximus Jonesavg 87.8¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$147.71	49% 4560-4822 (9382)
MA MadridTime	Maximus Jonesavg 72.2¢	$663.53	$758.5	+$94.98	38% 1303-2129 (3432)
NO NotJumpCTR	Yuki Mochizukiavg 48.6¢	$2.1K	$602.32	+$4.46	50% 1068-1058 (2126)
LI LightParadox	Maximus Jonesavg 71.8¢	$457.95	$574.17	+$116.22	37% 1293-2176 (3469)
EU Eulhunter	Maximus Jonesavg 90¢	$389.7	$418.71	+$29.01	52% 203-184 (387)
TH thestingsnake	Maximus Jonesavg 94¢	$311.69	$295.63	+$15.74	35% 234-442 (676)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Yuki Mochizukiavg 4¢	$332.31	$286.43	-$45.88	50% 2799-2804 (5603)
VE Venusian	Maximus Jonesavg 71.7¢	$102.95	$139.23	+$36.28	38% 1301-2146 (3447)
BA babybells	Maximus Jonesavg 67.5¢	$121.18	$135.33	+$33.35	33% 248-510 (758)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Yuki Mochizukiavg 23.9¢	$755.77	$125.91	-$555.13	48% 359-385 (744)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Yuki Mochizukiavg 4.1¢	$690.9	$72.67	+$77.09	48% 3854-4218 (8072)
└ Maximus Jones leg	Maximus Jonesavg 66.6¢	$30.97	$44.9	-$133.32
└ Yuki Mochizuki leg	Yuki Mochizukiavg 4.1¢	$32.92	$27.77	+$210.42
CA CandleHammerDrums<$100	Maximus Jonesavg 78¢	$54.31	$49.76	-$4.55	49% 605-637 (1242)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Maximus Jonesavg 73.8¢	$43.26	$42.5	-$0.76	46% 600-717 (1317)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Yuki Mochizukiavg 16¢	$30.4	$31.35	+$0.95	50% 4027-4028 (8055)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yuki Mochizukiavg 28.9¢	$34.83	$25.95	-$8.88	42% 545-748 (1293)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Maximus Jonesavg 79.6¢	$25.61	$24.56	-$1.05	45% 442-540 (982)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Maximus Jonesavg 69¢	$18.1	$16.62	+$3.63	48% 2465-2697 (5162)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Maximus Jonesavg 69¢	$10	$10.51	+$0.51	48% 210-228 (438)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Maximus Jonesavg 70¢	$2.49	$2.51	+$0.02	83% 935-192 (1127)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yuki Mochizukiavg 22¢	$1.1	$0.17	-$0.93	32% 283-612 (895)

Limousin

Maximus Jones

Invested

$9,361.42

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$441.35

Record

38%

1276-2118 (3394)

Flaznorp

Maximus Jones

Invested

$1,896.06

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$147.71

Record

49%

4560-4822 (9382)

MadridTime

Maximus Jones

Invested

$663.53

Value

$758.5

PnL

+$94.98

Record

38%

1303-2129 (3432)

NotJumpCTR

Yuki Mochizuki

Invested

$2,101.49

Value

$602.32

PnL

+$4.46

Record

50%

1068-1058 (2126)

LightParadox

Maximus Jones

Invested

$457.95

Value

$574.17

PnL

+$116.22

Record

37%

1293-2176 (3469)

Eulhunter

Maximus Jones

Invested

$389.7

Value

$418.71

PnL

+$29.01

Record

52%

203-184 (387)

thestingsnake

Maximus Jones

Invested

$311.69

Value

$295.63

PnL

+$15.74

Record

35%

234-442 (676)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Yuki Mochizuki

Invested

$332.31

Value

$286.43

PnL

-$45.88

Record

50%

2799-2804 (5603)

Venusian

Maximus Jones

Invested

$102.95

Value

$139.23

PnL

+$36.28

Record

38%

1301-2146 (3447)

babybells

Maximus Jones

Invested

$121.18

Value

$135.33

PnL

+$33.35

Record

33%

248-510 (758)

thirdt1meCTR

Yuki Mochizuki

Invested

$755.77

Value

$125.91

PnL

-$555.13

Record

48%

359-385 (744)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Yuki Mochizuki

Invested

$690.9

Value

$72.67

PnL

+$77.09

Record

48%

3854-4218 (8072)

Both legs:

Maximus Jones$30.9766.6¢-$133.32

Yuki Mochizuki$32.924.1¢+$210.42

CandleHammerDrums<$100

Maximus Jones

Invested

$54.31

Value

$49.76

PnL

-$4.55

Record

49%

605-637 (1242)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Maximus Jones

Invested

$43.26

Value

$42.5

PnL

-$0.76

Record

46%

600-717 (1317)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Yuki Mochizuki

Invested

$30.4

Value

$31.35

PnL

+$0.95

Record

50%

4027-4028 (8055)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yuki Mochizuki

Invested

$34.83

Value

$25.95

PnL

-$8.88

Record

42%

545-748 (1293)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Maximus Jones

Invested

$25.61

Value

$24.56

PnL

-$1.05

Record

45%

442-540 (982)

ferdinand2<$100

Maximus Jones

Invested

$18.1

Value

$16.62

PnL

+$3.63

Record

48%

2465-2697 (5162)

glennyorkshire<$100

Maximus Jones

Invested

$10

Value

$10.51

PnL

+$0.51

Record

48%

210-228 (438)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Maximus Jones

Invested

$2.49

Value

$2.51

PnL

+$0.02

Record

83%

935-192 (1127)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yuki Mochizuki

Invested

$1.1

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$0.93

Record

32%

283-612 (895)

Research grade

NeutralMaximus Jones at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Maximus Jones

14 of 20 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Maximus Jones wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.