Metz: Filip Cristian Jianu vs Carlos Taberner

11 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Carlos Taberner (65%) · Carlos Taberner at 85¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 22

Filip Cristian Jianu16¢Carlos Taberner84¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Carlos Taberner

Consensus Traders

Carlos Taberner 65%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$19.61

Smart Money Entry

61.3¢ → 84.5¢

+38% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralCarlos Taberner at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Carlos Taberner

11 of 17 top traders (65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Filip Cristian Jianu16%

Carlos Taberner85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Carlos Taberner11 traders

Total Value$963.84

Total Shares1,391

Combined PnL+$102.91

Filip Cristian Jianu6 traders

Total Value$213.62

Total Shares893

Combined PnL-$83.3

Carlos Taberner — 65%Filip Cristian Jianu — 35%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Carlos Taberner. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCarlos Taberner 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Carlos Taberner 71% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Filip Cristian Jianuavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$10.5	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
└ Carlos Taberner leg	Carlos Taberneravg 50¢	$525	$651	+$126
└ Filip Cristian Jianu leg	Filip Cristian Jianuavg 50¢	$525	$409.5	-$115.5
EF efntrick	Carlos Taberneravg 60.1¢	$264.27	$272.5	+$8.24	46% 116-135 (251)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Carlos Taberneravg 48¢	$177.63	$228.38	+$50.74	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
└ Carlos Taberner leg	Carlos Taberneravg 48¢	$99.68	$169.32	+$69.64
└ Filip Cristian Jianu leg	Filip Cristian Jianuavg 24.4¢	$77.96	$59.06	-$18.9
38 38791873984189	Carlos Taberneravg 63.5¢	$353.28	$220.96	+$51.04	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
TH thirdt1me	Carlos Taberneravg 51.6¢	$97.45	$141.35	+$43.9	48% 373-412 (785)
OM omnibus-076daa	Carlos Taberneravg 64¢	$129.37	$125.33	-$4.04	46% 643-756 (1399)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Filip Cristian Jianuavg 31.4¢	$172.92	$107.23	-$65.69	38% 1348-2243 (3591)
PA Pan9X<$100	Carlos Taberneravg 59.7¢	$81.83	$84.94	+$3.11	50% 2190-2198 (4388)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Filip Cristian Jianuavg 37.2¢	$75.8	$79.52	+$3.72	48% 472-515 (987)
CA CandleHammerDrums<$100	Carlos Taberneravg 82¢	$33.85	$34.05	+$0.21	48% 638-680 (1318)
VE Venusian<$100	Carlos Taberneravg 63.5¢	$33.22	$31.89	-$1.33	38% 1354-2217 (3571)
LI Limousin<$100	Carlos Taberneravg 68¢	$23.8	$23.63	-$0.18	38% 1332-2185 (3517)
BA babybells<$100	Carlos Taberneravg 80¢	$15.22	$16.04	+$0.82	34% 272-524 (796)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Filip Cristian Jianuavg 55.7¢	$28.81	$9.57	-$19.24	43% 564-761 (1325)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Filip Cristian Jianuavg 20¢	$9.41	$8.68	-$0.73	38% 1354-2191 (3545)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Carlos Taberneravg 61¢	$7.9	$8.15	+$0.25	43% 861-1147 (2008)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Filip Cristian Jianuavg 18¢	$7.02	$5.27	-$2.06	36% 256-453 (709)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Carlos Taberneravg 43¢	$4.1	$5	+$0.9	46% 479-565 (1044)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Filip Cristian Jianuavg 19¢	$2.65	$3.35	+$0.7	48% 2555-2763 (5318)

NotJumpARB<$100

Filip Cristian Jianu

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10.5

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

Both legs:

Carlos Taberner$52550¢+$126

Filip Cristian Jianu$52550¢-$115.5

efntrick

Carlos Taberner

Invested

$264.27

Value

$272.5

PnL

+$8.24

Record

46%

116-135 (251)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Carlos Taberner

Invested

$177.63

Value

$228.38

PnL

+$50.74

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

Both legs:

Carlos Taberner$99.6848¢+$69.64

Filip Cristian Jianu$77.9624.4¢-$18.9

38791873984189

Carlos Taberner

Invested

$353.28

Value

$220.96

PnL

+$51.04

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

thirdt1me

Carlos Taberner

Invested

$97.45

Value

$141.35

PnL

+$43.9

Record

48%

373-412 (785)

omnibus-076daa

Carlos Taberner

Invested

$129.37

Value

$125.33

PnL

-$4.04

Record

46%

643-756 (1399)

LightParadoxCTR

Filip Cristian Jianu

Invested

$172.92

Value

$107.23

PnL

-$65.69

Record

38%

1348-2243 (3591)

Pan9X<$100

Carlos Taberner

Invested

$81.83

Value

$84.94

PnL

+$3.11

Record

50%

2190-2198 (4388)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Filip Cristian Jianu

Invested

$75.8

Value

$79.52

PnL

+$3.72

Record

48%

472-515 (987)

CandleHammerDrums<$100

Carlos Taberner

Invested

$33.85

Value

$34.05

PnL

+$0.21

Record

48%

638-680 (1318)

Venusian<$100

Carlos Taberner

Invested

$33.22

Value

$31.89

PnL

-$1.33

Record

38%

1354-2217 (3571)

Limousin<$100

Carlos Taberner

Invested

$23.8

Value

$23.63

PnL

-$0.18

Record

38%

1332-2185 (3517)

babybells<$100

Carlos Taberner

Invested

$15.22

Value

$16.04

PnL

+$0.82

Record

34%

272-524 (796)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Filip Cristian Jianu

Invested

$28.81

Value

$9.57

PnL

-$19.24

Record

43%

564-761 (1325)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Filip Cristian Jianu

Invested

$9.41

Value

$8.68

PnL

-$0.73

Record

38%

1354-2191 (3545)

ameisgoat11<$100

Carlos Taberner

Invested

$7.9

Value

$8.15

PnL

+$0.25

Record

43%

861-1147 (2008)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Filip Cristian Jianu

Invested

$7.02

Value

$5.27

PnL

-$2.06

Record

36%

256-453 (709)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Carlos Taberner

Invested

$4.1

Value

PnL

+$0.9

Record

46%

479-565 (1044)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Filip Cristian Jianu

Invested

$2.65

Value

$3.35

PnL

+$0.7

Record

48%

2555-2763 (5318)

Research grade

NeutralCarlos Taberner at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Carlos Taberner

11 of 17 top traders (65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Carlos Taberner. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCarlos Taberner 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Carlos Taberner 71% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Carlos Taberner wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.