Lima: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Filip Misolic

12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Filip Misolic (71%) · Filip Misolic at 85¢ · $32K held · ends Nov 18

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo16¢Filip Misolic84¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Filip Misolic

Consensus Traders

Filip Misolic 71%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$31.9K

Combined PnL

$3.7K

Smart Money Entry

66.8¢ → 84.5¢

+26% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralFilip Misolic at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Filip Misolic

12 of 17 top traders (71%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo16%

Filip Misolic85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Filip Misolic12 traders

Total Value$20.5K

Total Shares24,302

Combined PnL+$4.2K

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares4,395

Combined PnL-$498.59

Filip Misolic — 71%Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Filip Misolic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFilip Misolic 50% · 2

Aligned

sniperFilip Misolic 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedFilip Misolic 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Filip Misolic 65% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Woaifacai	Filip Misolicavg 63.1¢	$11.1K	$14.9K	+$3.8K	63% 225-135 (360)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Filip Misolicavg 61.5¢	$3.9K	$4.3K	+$429.82	50% 3289-3245 (6534)
└ Filip Misolic leg	Filip Misolicavg 61.5¢	$2.5K	$3.4K	+$920
└ Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo leg	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 23.7¢	$1.4K	$931.83	-$490.18
RN1ARB<$100	Filip Misolicavg 64¢	$4.4K	$4.2K	-$246.86	57% 4029-3044 (7073)
└ Filip Misolic leg	Filip Misolicavg 64¢	$2.5K	$3.1K	+$570.88
└ Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo leg	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 38¢	$1.9K	$1.1K	-$817.74
LI Limousin	Filip Misolicavg 79¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$157.27	30% 373-868 (1241)
VE Venusian	Filip Misolicavg 84¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$11.07	31% 380-865 (1245)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Filip Misolicavg 70.2¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$207.65	51% 1833-1787 (3620)
└ Filip Misolic leg	Filip Misolicavg 70.2¢	$953.51	$1.1K	+$112.87
└ Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo leg	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 35.4¢	$817.32	$496.8	-$320.52
38 38791873984189	Filip Misolicavg 59¢	$370.96	$527.08	+$157.12	48% 1332-1446 (2778)
tradecraftCTR	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 35¢	$702	$471.17	-$230.83	19% 147-614 (761)
TRCMCTR	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 35¢	$700	$470	-$230	10% 50-429 (479)
machinelearned	Filip Misolicavg 58.2¢	$218.25	$294.38	+$76.13	39% 506-777 (1283)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 25¢	$174.89	$160.35	-$14.54	53% 1801-1611 (3412)
└ Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo leg	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 25¢	$106.94	$91.96	-$14.97
└ Filip Misolic leg	Filip Misolicavg 78¢	$67.95	$68.39	+$0.44
VeryLucky888	Filip Misolicavg 60¢	$120.65	$154.83	+$34.18	51% 446-422 (868)
TH thirdt1meARB<$100	Filip Misolicavg 67¢	$434	$129.38	+$60.24	42% 110-152 (262)
└ Filip Misolic leg	Filip Misolicavg 67¢	$78	$98.38	+$61.24
└ Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo leg	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 16¢	$32	$31	-$1
BA babybells	Filip Misolicavg 71¢	$108.89	$117.42	+$8.53	23% 120-406 (526)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 33.1¢	$136.7	$75.79	-$42.24	24% 120-370 (490)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Filip Misolicavg 78¢	$60.06	$60.45	+$0.38	49% 98-102 (200)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Filip Misolicavg 67.5¢	$50.87	$54.29	+$3.42	56% 3843-3017 (6860)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Filip Misolicavg 72.9¢	$43.75	$50.7	+$6.95	22% 136-488 (624)
PA Pan9X<$100	Filip Misolicavg 59¢	$18.29	$23.87	+$5.58	48% 662-711 (1373)
SC SchruteBucksCTR	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 35¢	$315	$6.89	+$5.51	22% 140-491 (631)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Filip Misolicavg 60¢	$3	$3.93	+$0.93	32% 285-613 (898)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 38¢	$3.06	$2.03	-$1.03	45% 114-137 (251)

Woaifacai

Filip Misolic

Invested

$11,146.06

Value

$14.9K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

63%

225-135 (360)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$3,882.01

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$429.82

Record

50%

3289-3245 (6534)

Both legs:

Filip Misolic$2,46061.5¢+$920

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo$1,422.0123.7¢-$490.18

RN1ARB<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$4,403.02

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$246.86

Record

57%

4029-3044 (7073)

Both legs:

Filip Misolic$2,519.7464¢+$570.88

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo$1,883.2838¢-$817.74

Limousin

Filip Misolic

Invested

$2,280.84

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$157.27

Record

30%

373-868 (1241)

Venusian

Filip Misolic

Invested

$1,860.43

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$11.07

Record

31%

380-865 (1245)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$1,770.83

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$207.65

Record

51%

1833-1787 (3620)

Both legs:

Filip Misolic$953.5170.2¢+$112.87

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo$817.3235.4¢-$320.52

38791873984189

Filip Misolic

Invested

$370.96

Value

$527.08

PnL

+$157.12

Record

48%

1332-1446 (2778)

tradecraftCTR

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$702

Value

$471.17

PnL

-$230.83

Record

19%

147-614 (761)

TRCMCTR

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$700

Value

$470

PnL

-$230

Record

10%

50-429 (479)

machinelearned

Filip Misolic

Invested

$218.25

Value

$294.38

PnL

+$76.13

Record

39%

506-777 (1283)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$174.89

Value

$160.35

PnL

-$14.54

Record

53%

1801-1611 (3412)

Both legs:

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo$106.9425¢-$14.97

Filip Misolic$67.9578¢+$0.44

VeryLucky888

Filip Misolic

Invested

$120.65

Value

$154.83

PnL

+$34.18

Record

51%

446-422 (868)

thirdt1meARB<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$434

Value

$129.38

PnL

+$60.24

Record

42%

110-152 (262)

Both legs:

Filip Misolic$7867¢+$61.24

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo$3216¢-$1

babybells

Filip Misolic

Invested

$108.89

Value

$117.42

PnL

+$8.53

Record

23%

120-406 (526)

thestingsnakeCTR

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$136.7

Value

$75.79

PnL

-$42.24

Record

24%

120-370 (490)

Eulhunter<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$60.06

Value

$60.45

PnL

+$0.38

Record

49%

98-102 (200)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$50.87

Value

$54.29

PnL

+$3.42

Record

56%

3843-3017 (6860)

BillBenter2026<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$43.75

Value

$50.7

PnL

+$6.95

Record

22%

136-488 (624)

Pan9X<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$18.29

Value

$23.87

PnL

+$5.58

Record

48%

662-711 (1373)

SchruteBucksCTR

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$315

Value

$6.89

PnL

+$5.51

Record

22%

140-491 (631)

ameisgoat11<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

Value

$3.93

PnL

+$0.93

Record

32%

285-613 (898)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$3.06

Value

$2.03

PnL

-$1.03

Record

45%

114-137 (251)

Research grade

NeutralFilip Misolic at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Filip Misolic

12 of 17 top traders (71%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Filip Misolic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFilip Misolic 50% · 2

Aligned

sniperFilip Misolic 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedFilip Misolic 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Filip Misolic 65% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Filip Misolic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.