Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo, while the market favors Nicolas Jarry (56%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Lima: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Nicolas Jarry

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo (60%) · Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo at 44¢ · $225 held · ends Nov 17

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo44¢Nicolas Jarry56¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Consensus Traders

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 60%

Total Value

$225.36

Combined PnL

-$13.47

Smart Money Entry

48.5¢ → 44¢

-9% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Nicolas Jarry 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo44%

Nicolas Jarry56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo3 traders

Total Value$167.36

Total Shares380

Combined PnL-$16.88

Nicolas Jarry2 traders

Total Value$58

Total Shares101

Combined PnL+$3.41

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo — 60%Nicolas Jarry — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE VenusianCTR	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 48.4¢	$140.05	$128.78	-$11.27	24% 205-634 (839)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Nicolas Jarryavg 54¢	$51.3	$54.62	+$3.32	50% 1378-1396 (2774)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 48.8¢	$41.85	$36.45	-$5.39	25% 202-618 (820)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Nicolas Jarryavg 56¢	$3.29	$3.38	+$0.09	34% 162-314 (476)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.13	-$0.23	24% 200-640 (840)

VenusianCTR

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$140.05

Value

$128.78

PnL

-$11.27

Record

24%

205-634 (839)

Flaznorp<$100

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$51.3

Value

$54.62

PnL

+$3.32

Record

50%

1378-1396 (2774)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$41.85

Value

$36.45

PnL

-$5.39

Record

25%

202-618 (820)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$3.29

Value

$3.38

PnL

+$0.09

Record

34%

162-314 (476)

LimousinCTR<$100

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.13

PnL

-$0.23

Record

24%

200-640 (840)

Research grade

NeutralNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo at 44%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Nicolas Jarry 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.