Kobe: Masamichi Imamura vs Hiromasa Koyama

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Masamichi Imamura (86%) · Masamichi Imamura at 90¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 22

Masamichi Imamura90¢Hiromasa Koyama10¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Masamichi Imamura

Consensus Traders

Masamichi Imamura 86%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$169.09

Smart Money Entry

79.9¢ → 89.5¢

+12% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralMasamichi Imamura at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Masamichi Imamura

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Masamichi Imamura90%

Hiromasa Koyama11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Masamichi Imamura12 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,745

Combined PnL+$168.31

Hiromasa Koyama2 traders

Total Value$12.28

Total Shares55

Combined PnL+$0.79

Masamichi Imamura — 86%Hiromasa Koyama — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CA CandleHammerDrums	Masamichi Imamuraavg 78¢	$507.97	$566.64	+$58.67	49% 580-606 (1186)
38 38791873984189	Masamichi Imamuraavg 78¢	$607.08	$525.5	+$64.03	48% 3662-4031 (7693)
VE Venusian	Masamichi Imamuraavg 81¢	$370.6	$409.66	+$39.06	38% 1229-2023 (3252)
TH thestingsnake	Masamichi Imamuraavg 88¢	$264	$268.5	+$4.5	34% 228-441 (669)
FL Flaznorp	Masamichi Imamuraavg 78¢	$221.52	$222.94	+$1.42	48% 4388-4660 (9048)
OM omnibus-076daa	Masamichi Imamuraavg 77.2¢	$145.09	$145.72	+$0.63	46% 577-678 (1255)
BA babybells	Masamichi Imamuraavg 78¢	$113.1	$113.83	+$0.73	32% 236-498 (734)
MA MadridTime<$100	Masamichi Imamuraavg 88¢	$59.81	$60.83	+$1.02	38% 1242-1999 (3241)
LI LightParadox<$100	Masamichi Imamuraavg 77.7¢	$42.79	$41.56	-$1.23	38% 1233-2055 (3288)
LI Limousin<$100	Masamichi Imamuraavg 89¢	$22.41	$22.16	-$0.25	38% 1216-2009 (3225)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Hiromasa Koyamaavg 21.3¢	$10.31	$10.87	+$0.57	50% 1931-1953 (3884)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Masamichi Imamuraavg 81¢	$10	$9.56	-$0.43	47% 198-225 (423)
VeryLucky888<$100	Masamichi Imamuraavg 80¢	$9.12	$8.1	+$0.16	54% 1714-1481 (3195)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Hiromasa Koyamaavg 19¢	$1.19	$1.4	+$0.22	40% 658-980 (1638)

CandleHammerDrums

Masamichi Imamura

Invested

$507.97

Value

$566.64

PnL

+$58.67

Record

49%

580-606 (1186)

38791873984189

Masamichi Imamura

Invested

$607.08

Value

$525.5

PnL

+$64.03

Record

48%

3662-4031 (7693)

Venusian

Masamichi Imamura

Invested

$370.6

Value

$409.66

PnL

+$39.06

Record

38%

1229-2023 (3252)

thestingsnake

Masamichi Imamura

Invested

$264

Value

$268.5

PnL

+$4.5

Record

34%

228-441 (669)

Flaznorp

Masamichi Imamura

Invested

$221.52

Value

$222.94

PnL

+$1.42

Record

48%

4388-4660 (9048)

omnibus-076daa

Masamichi Imamura

Invested

$145.09

Value

$145.72

PnL

+$0.63

Record

46%

577-678 (1255)

babybells

Masamichi Imamura

Invested

$113.1

Value

$113.83

PnL

+$0.73

Record

32%

236-498 (734)

MadridTime<$100

Masamichi Imamura

Invested

$59.81

Value

$60.83

PnL

+$1.02

Record

38%

1242-1999 (3241)

LightParadox<$100

Masamichi Imamura

Invested

$42.79

Value

$41.56

PnL

-$1.23

Record

38%

1233-2055 (3288)

Limousin<$100

Masamichi Imamura

Invested

$22.41

Value

$22.16

PnL

-$0.25

Record

38%

1216-2009 (3225)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Hiromasa Koyama

Invested

$10.31

Value

$10.87

PnL

+$0.57

Record

50%

1931-1953 (3884)

glennyorkshire<$100

Masamichi Imamura

Invested

$10

Value

$9.56

PnL

-$0.43

Record

47%

198-225 (423)

VeryLucky888<$100

Masamichi Imamura

Invested

$9.12

Value

$8.1

PnL

+$0.16

Record

54%

1714-1481 (3195)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Hiromasa Koyama

Invested

$1.19

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$0.22

Record

40%

658-980 (1638)

Research grade

NeutralMasamichi Imamura at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Masamichi Imamura

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Masamichi Imamura wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.