Matsuyama: Shintaro Imai vs Fajing Sun

11 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Fajing Sun (65%) · Fajing Sun at 68¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 17

Shintaro Imai33¢Fajing Sun67¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Fajing Sun

Consensus Traders

Fajing Sun 65%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$175.45

Smart Money Entry

67.9¢ → 67.5¢

-1% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralFajing Sun at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Fajing Sun

11 of 17 top traders (65%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Shintaro Imai33%

Fajing Sun68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Fajing Sun11 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,980

Combined PnL+$33.43

Shintaro Imai6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares4,215

Combined PnL+$142.02

Fajing Sun — 65%Shintaro Imai — 35%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on Fajing Sun. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleShintaro Imai 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpShintaro Imai 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrShintaro Imai 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedFajing Sun 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Fajing Sun 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Fajing Sunavg 69¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$9.06	51% 3095-3009 (6104)
LI LimousinCTR	Shintaro Imaiavg 30.9¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$128.59	23% 174-599 (773)
38 38791873984189	Fajing Sunavg 69¢	$398.82	$401.71	+$2.89	48% 603-645 (1248)
TH thirdt1me	Fajing Sunavg 61.8¢	$187.35	$193.45	+$6.1	30% 46-106 (152)
BA babybells<$100	Fajing Sunavg 54¢	$46.25	$60.37	+$14.12	14% 55-348 (403)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Shintaro Imaiavg 26.8¢	$55.59	$50.85	-$4.75	23% 176-586 (762)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Fajing Sunavg 65.1¢	$44.39	$46.57	+$2.17	56% 3745-2913 (6658)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Shintaro Imaiavg 23¢	$45.1	$44.12	-$0.99	54% 1541-1296 (2837)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Shintaro Imaiavg 19¢	$21.26	$39.08	+$17.82	53% 45-40 (85)
VeryLucky888<$100	Fajing Sunavg 65.9¢	$28.86	$29.58	+$0.71	47% 171-192 (363)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Shintaro Imaiavg 33¢	$26.76	$27.95	+$1.19	24% 184-596 (780)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Fajing Sunavg 73.7¢	$17.69	$15.72	-$1.97	10% 50-444 (494)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Fajing Sunavg 67¢	$10.05	$10.28	+$0.22	50% 1275-1295 (2570)
RN1<$100	Fajing Sunavg 69¢	$6.59	$6.63	+$0.05	58% 3628-2593 (6221)
LI LightParadox<$100	Fajing Sunavg 66¢	$5.6	$5.56	-$0.04	23% 176-590 (766)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Fajing Sunavg 66¢	$3.3	$3.55	+$0.1	20% 113-461 (574)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Shintaro Imaiavg 29¢	$2.9	$3.05	+$0.15	14% 51-322 (373)

6512395314597884

Fajing Sun

Invested

$1,307.57

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$9.06

Record

51%

3095-3009 (6104)

LimousinCTR

Shintaro Imai

Invested

$1,120.78

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$128.59

Record

23%

174-599 (773)

38791873984189

Fajing Sun

Invested

$398.82

Value

$401.71

PnL

+$2.89

Record

48%

603-645 (1248)

thirdt1me

Fajing Sun

Invested

$187.35

Value

$193.45

PnL

+$6.1

Record

30%

46-106 (152)

babybells<$100

Fajing Sun

Invested

$46.25

Value

$60.37

PnL

+$14.12

Record

14%

55-348 (403)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Shintaro Imai

Invested

$55.59

Value

$50.85

PnL

-$4.75

Record

23%

176-586 (762)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Fajing Sun

Invested

$44.39

Value

$46.57

PnL

+$2.17

Record

56%

3745-2913 (6658)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Shintaro Imai

Invested

$45.1

Value

$44.12

PnL

-$0.99

Record

54%

1541-1296 (2837)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Shintaro Imai

Invested

$21.26

Value

$39.08

PnL

+$17.82

Record

53%

45-40 (85)

VeryLucky888<$100

Fajing Sun

Invested

$28.86

Value

$29.58

PnL

+$0.71

Record

47%

171-192 (363)

VenusianCTR<$100

Shintaro Imai

Invested

$26.76

Value

$27.95

PnL

+$1.19

Record

24%

184-596 (780)

BillBenter2026<$100

Fajing Sun

Invested

$17.69

Value

$15.72

PnL

-$1.97

Record

10%

50-444 (494)

Flaznorp<$100

Fajing Sun

Invested

$10.05

Value

$10.28

PnL

+$0.22

Record

50%

1275-1295 (2570)

RN1<$100

Fajing Sun

Invested

$6.59

Value

$6.63

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

3628-2593 (6221)

LightParadox<$100

Fajing Sun

Invested

$5.6

Value

$5.56

PnL

-$0.04

Record

23%

176-590 (766)

ameisgoat11<$100

Fajing Sun

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.55

PnL

+$0.1

Record

20%

113-461 (574)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Shintaro Imai

Invested

$2.9

Value

$3.05

PnL

+$0.15

Record

14%

51-322 (373)

Research grade

NeutralFajing Sun at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Fajing Sun

11 of 17 top traders (65%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on Fajing Sun. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleShintaro Imai 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpShintaro Imai 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrShintaro Imai 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedFajing Sun 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Fajing Sun 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Fajing Sun wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.