Sydney: Ymerali Ibraimi vs Thomas Fancutt

17 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Thomas Fancutt (77%) · Thomas Fancutt at 95¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 22

Ymerali Ibraimi6¢Thomas Fancutt94¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Thomas Fancutt

Consensus Traders

Thomas Fancutt 77%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

$194.25

Smart Money Entry

83.1¢ → 94.5¢

+14% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralThomas Fancutt at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thomas Fancutt

17 of 22 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Ymerali Ibraimi6%

Thomas Fancutt95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thomas Fancutt17 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares8,562

Combined PnL-$28.38

Ymerali Ibraimi5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,350

Combined PnL+$222.63

Thomas Fancutt — 77%Ymerali Ibraimi — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

68% of non-arb traders are on Thomas Fancutt. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpThomas Fancutt 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrThomas Fancutt 70% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Thomas Fancutt 68% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE Venusian	Thomas Fancuttavg 88.4¢	$3.4K	$3.1K	-$97.21	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
NO NotJumpCTR	Ymerali Ibraimiavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$10.5	51% 970-935 (1905)
tradecraft	Thomas Fancuttavg 75¢	$750	$910	+$160	33% 415-860 (1275)
TRCM	Thomas Fancuttavg 75¢	$750	$910	+$160	16% 89-455 (544)
LI LightParadox	Thomas Fancuttavg 85.6¢	$1.2K	$817.8	-$379.1	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
LI Limousin	Thomas Fancuttavg 89¢	$507.6	$428.56	-$34.1	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
FL Flaznorp	Thomas Fancuttavg 82.2¢	$370.13	$425.38	+$55.25	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
TH thestingsnake	Thomas Fancuttavg 79.7¢	$585.67	$328.21	-$113.61	34% 225-440 (665)
TH thirdt1me	Thomas Fancuttavg 75¢	$1.1K	$325.44	+$195.48	48% 311-334 (645)
MA MadridTime	Thomas Fancuttavg 90¢	$313.11	$316.59	+$3.48	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
SC SchruteBucks	Thomas Fancuttavg 81.3¢	$550.14	$221.58	-$48.33	27% 188-513 (701)
EF efntrick	Thomas Fancuttavg 74¢	$151.7	$186.55	+$34.85	45% 99-121 (220)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Thomas Fancuttavg 74¢	$110.72	$126.01	+$15.3	56% 4102-3203 (7305)
BA babybellsARB<$100	Ymerali Ibraimiavg 18.5¢	$434.23	$109.99	+$10.32	32% 228-491 (719)
└ Thomas Fancutt leg	Thomas Fancuttavg 81.6¢	$63.39	$70.66	+$52.03
└ Ymerali Ibraimi leg	Ymerali Ibraimiavg 18.5¢	$81.04	$39.32	-$41.72
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Ymerali Ibraimiavg 10.2¢	$627.12	$83.12	+$76.05	49% 572-596 (1168)
PA Pan9X<$100	Thomas Fancuttavg 74¢	$38.05	$46.79	+$8.74	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
38 38791873984189CTR	Ymerali Ibraimiavg 10.7¢	$983.68	$35.7	+$159.36	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Thomas Fancuttavg 73¢	$19.46	$24.26	+$4.8	46% 558-656 (1214)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Thomas Fancuttavg 72¢	$14.4	$18.2	+$3.8	83% 849-177 (1026)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Thomas Fancuttavg 74¢	$10	$12.29	+$2.3	46% 189-223 (412)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Thomas Fancuttavg 95¢	$4.75	$4.73	-$0.03	48% 2325-2529 (4854)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Ymerali Ibraimiavg 14.4¢	$3.72	$2.32	-$1.39	45% 424-518 (942)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Ymerali Ibraimiavg 26¢	$1.3	$0.4	-$0.9	45% 82-100 (182)

Venusian

Thomas Fancutt

Invested

$3,430.25

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$97.21

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

NotJumpCTR

Ymerali Ibraimi

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$10.5

Record

51%

970-935 (1905)

tradecraft

Thomas Fancutt

Invested

$750

Value

$910

PnL

+$160

Record

33%

415-860 (1275)

TRCM

Thomas Fancutt

Invested

$750

Value

$910

PnL

+$160

Record

16%

89-455 (544)

LightParadox

Thomas Fancutt

Invested

$1,211.27

Value

$817.8

PnL

-$379.1

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

Limousin

Thomas Fancutt

Invested

$507.6

Value

$428.56

PnL

-$34.1

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

Flaznorp

Thomas Fancutt

Invested

$370.13

Value

$425.38

PnL

+$55.25

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

thestingsnake

Thomas Fancutt

Invested

$585.67

Value

$328.21

PnL

-$113.61

Record

34%

225-440 (665)

thirdt1me

Thomas Fancutt

Invested

$1,096.11

Value

$325.44

PnL

+$195.48

Record

48%

311-334 (645)

MadridTime

Thomas Fancutt

Invested

$313.11

Value

$316.59

PnL

+$3.48

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

SchruteBucks

Thomas Fancutt

Invested

$550.14

Value

$221.58

PnL

-$48.33

Record

27%

188-513 (701)

efntrick

Thomas Fancutt

Invested

$151.7

Value

$186.55

PnL

+$34.85

Record

45%

99-121 (220)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Thomas Fancutt

Invested

$110.72

Value

$126.01

PnL

+$15.3

Record

56%

4102-3203 (7305)

babybellsARB<$100

Ymerali Ibraimi

Invested

$434.23

Value

$109.99

PnL

+$10.32

Record

32%

228-491 (719)

Both legs:

Thomas Fancutt$63.3981.6¢+$52.03

Ymerali Ibraimi$81.0418.5¢-$41.72

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Ymerali Ibraimi

Invested

$627.12

Value

$83.12

PnL

+$76.05

Record

49%

572-596 (1168)

Pan9X<$100

Thomas Fancutt

Invested

$38.05

Value

$46.79

PnL

+$8.74

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

38791873984189CTR

Ymerali Ibraimi

Invested

$983.68

Value

$35.7

PnL

+$159.36

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Thomas Fancutt

Invested

$19.46

Value

$24.26

PnL

+$4.8

Record

46%

558-656 (1214)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Thomas Fancutt

Invested

$14.4

Value

$18.2

PnL

+$3.8

Record

83%

849-177 (1026)

glennyorkshire<$100

Thomas Fancutt

Invested

$10

Value

$12.29

PnL

+$2.3

Record

46%

189-223 (412)

ferdinand2<$100

Thomas Fancutt

Invested

$4.75

Value

$4.73

PnL

-$0.03

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Ymerali Ibraimi

Invested

$3.72

Value

$2.32

PnL

-$1.39

Record

45%

424-518 (942)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Ymerali Ibraimi

Invested

$1.3

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$0.9

Record

45%

82-100 (182)

Research grade

NeutralThomas Fancutt at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Thomas Fancutt

17 of 22 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

68% of non-arb traders are on Thomas Fancutt. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpThomas Fancutt 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrThomas Fancutt 70% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Thomas Fancutt 68% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thomas Fancutt wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.