Champaign: Giles Hussey vs Lucas Horve

8 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Giles Hussey (50%) · Giles Hussey at 99¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 22

Giles Hussey>99¢Lucas Horve<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Giles Hussey

Consensus Traders

Giles Hussey 50%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$9.08

Smart Money Entry

98.4¢ → 99.3¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralGiles Hussey at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Giles Hussey

8 of 16 top traders (50%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Giles Hussey99%

Lucas Horve1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Giles Hussey8 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,464

Combined PnL+$28.34

Lucas Horve8 traders

Total Value$75.63

Total Shares4,626

Combined PnL-$19.25

Giles Hussey — 50%Lucas Horve — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE Venusian	Giles Husseyavg 98.8¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$7.57	38% 1437-2313 (3750)
MA MadridTime	Giles Husseyavg 98¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$14.39	38% 1426-2282 (3708)
LI Limousin	Giles Husseyavg 98.5¢	$488.67	$492.43	+$3.76	38% 1414-2288 (3702)
FL Flaznorp	Giles Husseyavg 97.3¢	$164.34	$167.69	+$3.35	48% 4837-5163 (10000)
LI LightParadox<$100	Giles Husseyavg 98.2¢	$40.33	$40.49	+$0.16	38% 1437-2336 (3773)
1L 1lovejump	Giles Husseyavg 98.1¢	$363.41	$34.64	-$1.28	41% 137-197 (334)
38 38791873984189CTR	Lucas Horveavg 2¢	$536.77	$30.09	-$35.32	48% 4069-4469 (8538)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Lucas Horveavg 2.1¢	$12.5	$21.6	+$9.1	49% 408-425 (833)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Lucas Horveavg 2.3¢	$13.47	$21.02	+$7.55	50% 204-200 (404)
VeryLucky888<$100	Giles Husseyavg 96.5¢	$10.6	$10.04	+$0.41	54% 2011-1740 (3751)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Giles Husseyavg 98¢	$9.8	$9.78	-$0.02	37% 272-462 (734)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Lucas Horveavg 2.1¢	$1.06	$1.81	+$0.75	50% 2219-2233 (4452)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Lucas Horveavg 2.6¢	$2	$0.58	-$1.42	43% 582-773 (1355)
RN1CTR<$100	Lucas Horveavg 3.8¢	$0.19	$0.19	+$0	54% 6103-5202 (11305)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Lucas Horveavg 2.1¢	$0.11	$0.18	+$0.08	53% 7612-6705 (14317)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Lucas Horveavg 2.9¢	$0.15	$0.15	+$0.01	49% 2903-2977 (5880)

Venusian

Giles Hussey

Invested

$1,509.23

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$7.57

Record

38%

1437-2313 (3750)

MadridTime

Giles Hussey

Invested

$1,154.86

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$14.39

Record

38%

1426-2282 (3708)

Limousin

Giles Hussey

Invested

$488.67

Value

$492.43

PnL

+$3.76

Record

38%

1414-2288 (3702)

Flaznorp

Giles Hussey

Invested

$164.34

Value

$167.69

PnL

+$3.35

Record

48%

4837-5163 (10000)

LightParadox<$100

Giles Hussey

Invested

$40.33

Value

$40.49

PnL

+$0.16

Record

38%

1437-2336 (3773)

1lovejump

Giles Hussey

Invested

$363.41

Value

$34.64

PnL

-$1.28

Record

41%

137-197 (334)

38791873984189CTR

Lucas Horve

Invested

$536.77

Value

$30.09

PnL

-$35.32

Record

48%

4069-4469 (8538)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Lucas Horve

Invested

$12.5

Value

$21.6

PnL

+$9.1

Record

49%

408-425 (833)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Lucas Horve

Invested

$13.47

Value

$21.02

PnL

+$7.55

Record

50%

204-200 (404)

VeryLucky888<$100

Giles Hussey

Invested

$10.6

Value

$10.04

PnL

+$0.41

Record

54%

2011-1740 (3751)

thestingsnake<$100

Giles Hussey

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.78

PnL

-$0.02

Record

37%

272-462 (734)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Lucas Horve

Invested

$1.06

Value

$1.81

PnL

+$0.75

Record

50%

2219-2233 (4452)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Lucas Horve

Invested

Value

$0.58

PnL

-$1.42

Record

43%

582-773 (1355)

RN1CTR<$100

Lucas Horve

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.19

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

6103-5202 (11305)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Lucas Horve

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.18

PnL

+$0.08

Record

53%

7612-6705 (14317)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Lucas Horve

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.15

PnL

+$0.01

Record

49%

2903-2977 (5880)

Research grade

NeutralGiles Hussey at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Giles Hussey

8 of 16 top traders (50%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Giles Hussey wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.