Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Geoffrey Blancaneaux, while the market favors Giles Hussey (75%). 15 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Knoxville: Giles Hussey vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux

15 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Geoffrey Blancaneaux (83%) · Geoffrey Blancaneaux at 25¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 16

Giles Hussey75¢Geoffrey Blancaneaux25¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Consensus Traders

Geoffrey Blancaneaux 83%

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

28.8¢ → 25¢

-13% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

AvoidGeoffrey Blancaneaux at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

15 of 18 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Giles Hussey 75%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Giles Hussey75%

Geoffrey Blancaneaux25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Geoffrey Blancaneaux15 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares6,670

Combined PnL+$934.13

Giles Hussey3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,161

Combined PnL+$75.78

Geoffrey Blancaneaux — 83%Giles Hussey — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 26¢	$1.3K	$2.2K	+$872.55	—
OM omnibus-076daa	Giles Husseyavg 51.4¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$99.46	—
38 38791873984189CTR	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 32.1¢	$179.07	$208.2	+$71.98	—
FL FlaznorpCTR	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 45.6¢	$177.35	$169.21	-$8.13	—
nigiri99CTR<$100	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 45.1¢	$87.55	$84.39	-$3.16	—
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 25.8¢	$79.76	$78.8	-$0.97	—
tradecraft<$100	Giles Husseyavg 70¢	$96.98	$78.28	-$18.7	—
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 45.6¢	$41.35	$39.45	-$1.89	—
LI Limousin<$100	Giles Husseyavg 70¢	$25.82	$20.84	-$4.98	—
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 53.1¢	$24.7	$20.24	-$4.46	—
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 46¢	$21.25	$20.09	-$1.15	—
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 28¢	$9.88	$15.35	+$5.47	—
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 33¢	$9.61	$12.67	+$3.06	—
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 26.7¢	$11.69	$11.15	-$0.54	—
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 29¢	$2.75	$4.12	+$1.37	—
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 43¢	$2.26	$2.29	+$0.03	—
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.18	-$0.03	—
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 43¢	$0.99	$1	+$0.01	—

RN1CTR

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Invested

$1,296.36

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$872.55

Record

—

omnibus-076daa

Giles Hussey

Invested

$1,082.02

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$99.46

Record

—

38791873984189CTR

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Invested

$179.07

Value

$208.2

PnL

+$71.98

Record

—

FlaznorpCTR

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Invested

$177.35

Value

$169.21

PnL

-$8.13

Record

—

nigiri99CTR<$100

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Invested

$87.55

Value

$84.39

PnL

-$3.16

Record

—

EulhunterCTR<$100

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Invested

$79.76

Value

$78.8

PnL

-$0.97

Record

—

tradecraft<$100

Giles Hussey

Invested

$96.98

Value

$78.28

PnL

-$18.7

Record

—

sentrioCTR<$100

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Invested

$41.35

Value

$39.45

PnL

-$1.89

Record

—

Limousin<$100

Giles Hussey

Invested

$25.82

Value

$20.84

PnL

-$4.98

Record

—

pauleta23CTR<$100

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Invested

$24.7

Value

$20.24

PnL

-$4.46

Record

—

Pan9XCTR<$100

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Invested

$21.25

Value

$20.09

PnL

-$1.15

Record

—

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Invested

$9.88

Value

$15.35

PnL

+$5.47

Record

—

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Invested

$9.61

Value

$12.67

PnL

+$3.06

Record

—

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Invested

$11.69

Value

$11.15

PnL

-$0.54

Record

—

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Invested

$2.75

Value

$4.12

PnL

+$1.37

Record

—

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Invested

$2.26

Value

$2.29

PnL

+$0.03

Record

—

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$0.03

Record

—

efntrickCTR<$100

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

Invested

$0.99

Value

PnL

+$0.01

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidGeoffrey Blancaneaux at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Geoffrey Blancaneaux

15 of 18 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Giles Hussey 75%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Geoffrey Blancaneaux wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.0%

25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$270.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

370.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.