Knoxville: Giles Hussey vs Kaylan Bigun

14 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Kaylan Bigun (82%) · Kaylan Bigun at 54¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15

Giles Hussey47¢Kaylan Bigun53¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kaylan Bigun

Consensus Traders

Kaylan Bigun 82%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$602.59

Smart Money Entry

43.5¢ → 53.5¢

+23% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralKaylan Bigun at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kaylan Bigun

14 of 17 top traders (82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Giles Hussey47%

Kaylan Bigun54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kaylan Bigun14 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares5,636

Combined PnL+$612.5

Giles Hussey3 traders

Total Value$74.09

Total Shares149

Combined PnL-$9.91

Kaylan Bigun — 82%Giles Hussey — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Kaylan Bigun. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKaylan Bigun 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKaylan Bigun 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedKaylan Bigun 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kaylan Bigun 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Giles Husseyavg 48.4¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$44.99	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
└ Giles Hussey leg	Giles Husseyavg 48.4¢	$785.15	$706.18	-$78.97
└ Kaylan Bigun leg	Kaylan Bigunavg 53.7¢	$651.5	$685.47	+$33.98
VE Venusian	Kaylan Bigunavg 42¢	$736.6	$1.0K	+$204.72	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
LI Limousin	Kaylan Bigunavg 37¢	$549.35	$801.75	+$252.4	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
MA MadridTime	Kaylan Bigunavg 41.7¢	$367.43	$473.79	+$106.36	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Kaylan Bigunavg 62¢	$457.34	$416.41	-$40.92	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
└ Kaylan Bigun leg	Kaylan Bigunavg 62¢	$304.42	$265.14	-$39.28
└ Giles Hussey leg	Giles Husseyavg 46.5¢	$152.92	$151.27	-$1.64
TH thestingsnake	Kaylan Bigunavg 56¢	$392.1	$395.5	+$3.4	60% 4598-3103 (7701)
FL Flaznorp	Kaylan Bigunavg 42¢	$172.01	$193.44	+$21.43	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
OM omnibus-076daa	Kaylan Bigunavg 58.7¢	$150.85	$147.75	-$3.1	50% 23496-23498 (46994)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Kaylan Bigunavg 41.1¢	$53.6	$70.48	+$16.88	53% 6779-5931 (12710)
EF efntrick<$100	Kaylan Bigunavg 60¢	$50.31	$47.38	+$0.42	49% 3725-3946 (7671)
VeryLucky888<$100	Kaylan Bigunavg 59.9¢	$43.21	$37.93	+$0.82	59% 52427-37141 (89568)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Giles Husseyavg 41¢	$51.22	$34.82	+$0.73	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
machinelearned<$100	Kaylan Bigunavg 38¢	$19.78	$28.13	+$8.35	54% 10225-8705 (18930)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Giles Husseyavg 61¢	$30.61	$25.18	-$5.43	53% 15513-13750 (29263)
RN1CTR<$100	Giles Husseyavg 63¢	$19.3	$14.09	-$5.21	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Kaylan Bigunavg 54.9¢	$9.33	$9.18	-$0.15	57% 20233-15052 (35285)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Kaylan Bigunavg 60¢	$5	$3.03	+$0.03	52% 9525-8636 (18161)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Kaylan Bigunavg 53¢	$2.71	$2.76	+$0.05	52% 6060-5587 (11647)
SE sentrio<$100	Kaylan Bigunavg 36¢	$1.8	$2.7	+$0.9	50% 27970-27422 (55392)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Giles Hussey

Invested

$1,436.65

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$44.99

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

Both legs:

Giles Hussey$785.1548.4¢-$78.97

Kaylan Bigun$651.553.7¢+$33.98

Venusian

Kaylan Bigun

Invested

$736.6

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$204.72

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

Limousin

Kaylan Bigun

Invested

$549.35

Value

$801.75

PnL

+$252.4

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

MadridTime

Kaylan Bigun

Invested

$367.43

Value

$473.79

PnL

+$106.36

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Kaylan Bigun

Invested

$457.34

Value

$416.41

PnL

-$40.92

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

Both legs:

Kaylan Bigun$304.4262¢-$39.28

Giles Hussey$152.9246.5¢-$1.64

thestingsnake

Kaylan Bigun

Invested

$392.1

Value

$395.5

PnL

+$3.4

Record

60%

4598-3103 (7701)

Flaznorp

Kaylan Bigun

Invested

$172.01

Value

$193.44

PnL

+$21.43

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

omnibus-076daa

Kaylan Bigun

Invested

$150.85

Value

$147.75

PnL

-$3.1

Record

50%

23496-23498 (46994)

Eulhunter<$100

Kaylan Bigun

Invested

$53.6

Value

$70.48

PnL

+$16.88

Record

53%

6779-5931 (12710)

efntrick<$100

Kaylan Bigun

Invested

$50.31

Value

$47.38

PnL

+$0.42

Record

49%

3725-3946 (7671)

VeryLucky888<$100

Kaylan Bigun

Invested

$43.21

Value

$37.93

PnL

+$0.82

Record

59%

52427-37141 (89568)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Giles Hussey

Invested

$51.22

Value

$34.82

PnL

+$0.73

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

machinelearned<$100

Kaylan Bigun

Invested

$19.78

Value

$28.13

PnL

+$8.35

Record

54%

10225-8705 (18930)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Giles Hussey

Invested

$30.61

Value

$25.18

PnL

-$5.43

Record

53%

15513-13750 (29263)

RN1CTR<$100

Giles Hussey

Invested

$19.3

Value

$14.09

PnL

-$5.21

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

BillBenter2026<$100

Kaylan Bigun

Invested

$9.33

Value

$9.18

PnL

-$0.15

Record

57%

20233-15052 (35285)

ameisgoat11<$100

Kaylan Bigun

Invested

Value

$3.03

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

9525-8636 (18161)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Kaylan Bigun

Invested

$2.71

Value

$2.76

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

6060-5587 (11647)

sentrio<$100

Kaylan Bigun

Invested

$1.8

Value

$2.7

PnL

+$0.9

Record

50%

27970-27422 (55392)

Research grade

NeutralKaylan Bigun at 54%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Kaylan Bigun

14 of 17 top traders (82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Kaylan Bigun. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKaylan Bigun 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKaylan Bigun 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedKaylan Bigun 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kaylan Bigun 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kaylan Bigun wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.