Matsuyama: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Niels McDonald
13 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Yu-Hsiou Hsu (72%) · Yu-Hsiou Hsu at 90¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Yu-Hsiou Hsu
18
Yu-Hsiou Hsu 72%
2 arb excluded
$11.6K
-$57.8
74.7¢ → 89.5¢
+20% since entry · 13 traders
Research grade
NeutralYu-Hsiou Hsu at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
13 of 18 top traders (72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yu-Hsiou Hsu. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTime | Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 81.5¢ | $3.8K | $3.4K | -$123.37 | 29% 307-750 (1057) |
65 6512395314597884 | Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 71¢ | $1.9K | $2.1K | +$164.36 | 51% 3173-3073 (6246) |
LI LimousinARB<$100 | Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 89¢ | $2.3K | $1.5K | -$663.34 | 29% 314-785 (1099) |
| └ Yu-Hsiou Hsu leg | Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 89¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$6.77 | |
| └ Niels McDonald leg | Niels McDonaldavg 28¢ | $807.3 | $331.37 | -$656.57 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 71¢ | $1.4K | $1.2K | +$5.79 | 51% 330-319 (649) |
LI LightParadox | Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 73¢ | $867.03 | $1.1K | +$219.73 | 28% 299-766 (1065) |
VI vibing123 | Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 68¢ | $578.68 | $761.65 | +$182.97 | 63% 1078-644 (1722) |
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100 | Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 59.7¢ | $703.13 | $566.77 | +$47.74 | 21% 97-365 (462) |
| └ Yu-Hsiou Hsu leg | Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 59.7¢ | $318.47 | $424.33 | +$106.18 | |
| └ Niels McDonald leg | Niels McDonaldavg 32.6¢ | $226.79 | $142.44 | -$58.44 | |
 machinelearned | Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 67¢ | $293.96 | $252.28 | -$41.68 | 38% 427-698 (1125) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Niels McDonaldavg 28¢ | $418.08 | $171.56 | -$246.52 | 50% 1562-1566 (3128) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 86.5¢ | $113.42 | $107.07 | -$6.35 | 56% 3823-2988 (6811) |
TH thirdt1meCTR | Niels McDonaldavg 16¢ | $191.77 | $104.59 | -$33.17 | 42% 98-133 (231) |
 tradecraftCTR | Niels McDonaldavg 38.2¢ | $252.29 | $69.41 | -$182.89 | 18% 135-596 (731) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 73¢ | $53.2 | $53.56 | +$0.36 | 54% 1662-1438 (3100) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 61¢ | $53.68 | $50.6 | -$3.08 | 50% 191-194 (385) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Niels McDonaldavg 11¢ | $44.99 | $47.04 | +$2.05 | 48% 969-1052 (2021) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 67¢ | $40.9 | $43.35 | +$2.44 | 40% 241-361 (602) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 72¢ | $35.28 | $34.79 | -$0.49 | 49% 450-474 (924) |
BA babybellsCTR<$100 | Niels McDonaldavg 32¢ | $20.8 | $21.45 | +$0.65 | 21% 104-389 (493) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 77¢ | $7.7 | $8.95 | +$1.25 | 19% 109-475 (584) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 70¢ | $7.58 | $7.74 | +$0.16 | 28% 305-773 (1078) |
Invested
$3,816.58
Value
$3.4K
PnL
-$123.37
Record
29%
307-750 (1057)
Invested
$1,936.63
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$164.36
Record
51%
3173-3073 (6246)
Invested
$2,309.96
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$663.34
Record
29%
314-785 (1099)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,398.93
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$5.79
Record
51%
330-319 (649)
Invested
$867.03
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$219.73
Record
28%
299-766 (1065)
Invested
$578.68
Value
$761.65
PnL
+$182.97
Record
63%
1078-644 (1722)
Invested
$703.13
Value
$566.77
PnL
+$47.74
Record
21%
97-365 (462)
Both legs:
machinelearnedInvested
$293.96
Value
$252.28
PnL
-$41.68
Record
38%
427-698 (1125)
Invested
$418.08
Value
$171.56
PnL
-$246.52
Record
50%
1562-1566 (3128)
Invested
$113.42
Value
$107.07
PnL
-$6.35
Record
56%
3823-2988 (6811)
Invested
$191.77
Value
$104.59
PnL
-$33.17
Record
42%
98-133 (231)
tradecraftCTRInvested
$252.29
Value
$69.41
PnL
-$182.89
Record
18%
135-596 (731)
Invested
$53.2
Value
$53.56
PnL
+$0.36
Record
54%
1662-1438 (3100)
Invested
$53.68
Value
$50.6
PnL
-$3.08
Record
50%
191-194 (385)
Invested
$44.99
Value
$47.04
PnL
+$2.05
Record
48%
969-1052 (2021)
Invested
$40.9
Value
$43.35
PnL
+$2.44
Record
40%
241-361 (602)
Invested
$35.28
Value
$34.79
PnL
-$0.49
Record
49%
450-474 (924)
Invested
$20.8
Value
$21.45
PnL
+$0.65
Record
21%
104-389 (493)
Invested
$7.7
Value
$8.95
PnL
+$1.25
Record
19%
109-475 (584)
Invested
$7.58
Value
$7.74
PnL
+$0.16
Record
28%
305-773 (1078)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
MadridTime
Yu-Hsiou Hsu — $3.4K
6512395314597884
Yu-Hsiou Hsu — $2.1K
Limousin
ARBArbitrage — excluded
VeryLucky888
Yu-Hsiou Hsu — $1.2K
LightParadox
Yu-Hsiou Hsu — $1.1K
vibing123
Yu-Hsiou Hsu — $761.65
thestingsnake
ARBArbitrage — excluded
machinelearned
Yu-Hsiou Hsu — $252.28
Flaznorp
CTRNiels McDonald — $171.56
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
Yu-Hsiou Hsu — $107.07