Bratislava 2: Max Houkes vs Michael Vrbensky

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Michael Vrbensky (67%) · Michael Vrbensky at 89¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 9

Max Houkes12¢Michael Vrbensky88¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Michael Vrbensky

Consensus Traders

Michael Vrbensky 67%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.7K

Combined PnL

$668.94

Smart Money Entry

63.8¢ → 88.5¢

+39% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralMichael Vrbensky at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Michael Vrbensky

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Max Houkes12%

Michael Vrbensky89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Michael Vrbensky10 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares5,757

Combined PnL+$985.08

Max Houkes5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,759

Combined PnL-$316.15

Michael Vrbensky — 67%Max Houkes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Michael Vrbenskyavg 63.5¢	$11.8K	$9.8K	$-2.0K	54% 58127-50358 (108485)
└ Michael Vrbensky leg	Michael Vrbenskyavg 63.5¢	$6.1K	$6.5K	+$382.9
└ Max Houkes leg	Max Houkesavg 56.5¢	$5.7K	$3.3K	$-2.4K
UP UpTheBlues	Michael Vrbenskyavg 65.3¢	$3.0K	$3.9K	+$840.88	58% 48512-34664 (83176)
88MCTR	Max Houkesavg 40.3¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$180.15	42% 800-1095 (1895)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Michael Vrbenskyavg 65¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$54.63	43% 7731-10455 (18186)
└ Michael Vrbensky leg	Michael Vrbenskyavg 65¢	$650	$775	+$125
└ Max Houkes leg	Max Houkesavg 27.9¢	$361.59	$291.22	-$70.37
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Max Houkesavg 49.1¢	$1.3K	$488.26	-$355.62	47% 13002-14566 (27568)
└ Michael Vrbensky leg	Michael Vrbenskyavg 63.7¢	$262.9	$361.21	+$115.88
└ Max Houkes leg	Max Houkesavg 49.1¢	$498.82	$127.06	-$471.5
TH thestingsnake	Michael Vrbenskyavg 62.3¢	$335.58	$449.85	+$114.27	60% 4149-2784 (6933)
CA CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100	Max Houkesavg 29.7¢	$382.13	$346.78	-$35.35	52% 5702-5267 (10969)
└ Michael Vrbensky leg	Michael Vrbenskyavg 53¢	$132.01	$207.97	+$75.97
└ Max Houkes leg	Max Houkesavg 29.7¢	$250.12	$138.81	-$111.31
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Michael Vrbenskyavg 65¢	$168.66	$169.95	+$1.3	59% 30975-21694 (52669)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Max Houkesavg 48.3¢	$282.72	$160.94	-$121.78	51% 17613-16616 (34229)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Michael Vrbenskyavg 60.6¢	$108.2	$104.71	-$3.49	52% 14029-12787 (26816)
└ Michael Vrbensky leg	Michael Vrbenskyavg 60.6¢	$55.58	$61.9	+$6.32
└ Max Houkes leg	Max Houkesavg 39.9¢	$52.62	$42.81	-$9.81
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Michael Vrbenskyavg 31.3¢	$39.98	$75.39	+$4.1	61% 13846-8751 (22597)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Michael Vrbenskyavg 54.9¢	$50.54	$60.28	+$9.74	54% 5907-4953 (10860)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Max Houkesavg 63¢	$64.63	$30.69	-$13.94	58% 43600-31711 (75311)
nigiri99<$100	Michael Vrbenskyavg 33.5¢	$16.41	$29.64	+$13.22	46% 7287-8597 (15884)
SE sentrio<$100	Michael Vrbenskyavg 65¢	$27.89	$28.11	+$0.21	50% 25000-24720 (49720)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Michael Vrbenskyavg 57¢	$5.7	$6.55	+$0.85	86% 6398-1078 (7476)
SC SchruteBucks<$100	Michael Vrbenskyavg 59¢	$5.9	$6.15	+$0.25	56% 1877-1459 (3336)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Michael Vrbenskyavg 48¢	$4.75	$5	+$0.25	51% 997-961 (1958)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Max Houkesavg 15¢	$1.01	$1.12	+$0.1	47% 10054-11163 (21217)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Max Houkesavg 47¢	$1.41	$1.04	-$0.38	53% 6371-5759 (12130)

RN1ARB<$100

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$11,814.7

Value

$9.8K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

54%

58127-50358 (108485)

Both legs:

Michael Vrbensky$6,128.7863.5¢+$382.9

Max Houkes$5,685.9256.5¢$-2.4K

UpTheBlues

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$3,018.54

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$840.88

Record

58%

48512-34664 (83176)

88MCTR

Max Houkes

Invested

$1,246.98

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$180.15

Record

42%

800-1095 (1895)

NotJumpARB<$100

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$1,011.59

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$54.63

Record

43%

7731-10455 (18186)

Both legs:

Michael Vrbensky$65065¢+$125

Max Houkes$361.5927.9¢-$70.37

38791873984189ARB<$100

Max Houkes

Invested

$1,308.5

Value

$488.26

PnL

-$355.62

Record

47%

13002-14566 (27568)

Both legs:

Michael Vrbensky$262.963.7¢+$115.88

Max Houkes$498.8249.1¢-$471.5

thestingsnake

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$335.58

Value

$449.85

PnL

+$114.27

Record

60%

4149-2784 (6933)

CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100

Max Houkes

Invested

$382.13

Value

$346.78

PnL

-$35.35

Record

52%

5702-5267 (10969)

Both legs:

Michael Vrbensky$132.0153¢+$75.97

Max Houkes$250.1229.7¢-$111.31

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$168.66

Value

$169.95

PnL

+$1.3

Record

59%

30975-21694 (52669)

FlaznorpCTR

Max Houkes

Invested

$282.72

Value

$160.94

PnL

-$121.78

Record

51%

17613-16616 (34229)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$108.2

Value

$104.71

PnL

-$3.49

Record

52%

14029-12787 (26816)

Both legs:

Michael Vrbensky$55.5860.6¢+$6.32

Max Houkes$52.6239.9¢-$9.81

Lilybaeum<$100

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$39.98

Value

$75.39

PnL

+$4.1

Record

61%

13846-8751 (22597)

Eulhunter<$100

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$50.54

Value

$60.28

PnL

+$9.74

Record

54%

5907-4953 (10860)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Max Houkes

Invested

$64.63

Value

$30.69

PnL

-$13.94

Record

58%

43600-31711 (75311)

nigiri99<$100

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$16.41

Value

$29.64

PnL

+$13.22

Record

46%

7287-8597 (15884)

sentrio<$100

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$27.89

Value

$28.11

PnL

+$0.21

Record

50%

25000-24720 (49720)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$5.7

Value

$6.55

PnL

+$0.85

Record

86%

6398-1078 (7476)

SchruteBucks<$100

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$5.9

Value

$6.15

PnL

+$0.25

Record

56%

1877-1459 (3336)

ferdinand2<$100

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$4.75

Value

PnL

+$0.25

Record

51%

997-961 (1958)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Max Houkes

Invested

$1.01

Value

$1.12

PnL

+$0.1

Record

47%

10054-11163 (21217)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Max Houkes

Invested

$1.41

Value

$1.04

PnL

-$0.38

Record

53%

6371-5759 (12130)

Research grade

NeutralMichael Vrbensky at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Michael Vrbensky

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Michael Vrbensky wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.