Orleans: Max Houkes vs Tom Gentzsch

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Tom Gentzsch (60%) · Tom Gentzsch at 69¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 16

Max Houkes32¢Tom Gentzsch68¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tom Gentzsch

Consensus Traders

Tom Gentzsch 60%

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

-$36.38

Smart Money Entry

70.4¢ → 68.5¢

-3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralTom Gentzsch at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tom Gentzsch

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Max Houkes32%

Tom Gentzsch69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tom Gentzsch6 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares4,955

Combined PnL-$92.45

Max Houkes4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares6,170

Combined PnL+$56.08

Tom Gentzsch — 60%Max Houkes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Tom Gentzschavg 70.3¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$64.33	52% 49211-46180 (95391)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Max Houkesavg 30.5¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$58.87	49% 591-609 (1200)
SE sentrio	Tom Gentzschavg 70.2¢	$561.47	$547.8	-$13.67	51% 28741-28115 (56856)
38 38791873984189	Tom Gentzschavg 70¢	$245	$239.75	-$5.25	48% 71959-77656 (149615)
VeryLucky888	Tom Gentzschavg 72¢	$152.19	$128.34	-$7.2	58% 53643-38159 (91802)
PA Pan9X<$100	Tom Gentzschavg 72¢	$36.72	$34.94	-$1.78	53% 28233-25512 (53745)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Max Houkesavg 32.1¢	$27.31	$26.83	-$0.48	45% 2644-3186 (5830)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Max Houkesavg 31¢	$14.74	$12.6	-$2.14	56% 8974-7089 (16063)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Max Houkesavg 32.1¢	$9.29	$9.12	-$0.16	45% 2577-3112 (5689)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Tom Gentzschavg 73¢	$3.65	$3.43	-$0.22	53% 14808-13030 (27838)

Flaznorp

Tom Gentzsch

Invested

$2,523.6

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$64.33

Record

52%

49211-46180 (95391)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Max Houkes

Invested

$1,833.63

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$58.87

Record

49%

591-609 (1200)

sentrio

Tom Gentzsch

Invested

$561.47

Value

$547.8

PnL

-$13.67

Record

51%

28741-28115 (56856)

38791873984189

Tom Gentzsch

Invested

$245

Value

$239.75

PnL

-$5.25

Record

48%

71959-77656 (149615)

VeryLucky888

Tom Gentzsch

Invested

$152.19

Value

$128.34

PnL

-$7.2

Record

58%

53643-38159 (91802)

Pan9X<$100

Tom Gentzsch

Invested

$36.72

Value

$34.94

PnL

-$1.78

Record

53%

28233-25512 (53745)

VenusianCTR<$100

Max Houkes

Invested

$27.31

Value

$26.83

PnL

-$0.48

Record

45%

2644-3186 (5830)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Max Houkes

Invested

$14.74

Value

$12.6

PnL

-$2.14

Record

56%

8974-7089 (16063)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Max Houkes

Invested

$9.29

Value

$9.12

PnL

-$0.16

Record

45%

2577-3112 (5689)

ameisgoat11<$100

Tom Gentzsch

Invested

$3.65

Value

$3.43

PnL

-$0.22

Record

53%

14808-13030 (27838)

Research grade

NeutralTom Gentzsch at 69%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Tom Gentzsch

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tom Gentzsch wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.