Drummondville: Jared Horwood vs Jannik Opitz

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Jannik Opitz (62%) · Jannik Opitz at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 22

Jared Horwood<1¢Jannik Opitz>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jannik Opitz

Consensus Traders

Jannik Opitz 62%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$37.44

Smart Money Entry

98.1¢ → 99.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralJannik Opitz at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jannik Opitz

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Jared Horwood1%

Jannik Opitz99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jannik Opitz8 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,793

Combined PnL+$39.02

Jared Horwood5 traders

Total Value$572.2

Total Shares1,597

Combined PnL-$1.58

Jannik Opitz — 62%Jared Horwood — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Jannik Opitzavg 98.6¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$14.4	38% 1375-2208 (3583)
NO NotJumpCTR	Jared Horwoodavg 50¢	$1.1K	$567.01	+$0.25	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
TH thestingsnake	Jannik Opitzavg 98.2¢	$348.69	$352.95	+$4.26	36% 259-457 (716)
VE Venusian	Jannik Opitzavg 97.6¢	$302.22	$301.73	-$0.49	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
TH thirdt1me	Jannik Opitzavg 97.1¢	$194.2	$195.3	+$1.1	47% 376-418 (794)
38 38791873984189	Jannik Opitzavg 97¢	$996.84	$169.81	+$20.67	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
LI Limousin<$100	Jannik Opitzavg 97.2¢	$81.26	$79.95	-$1.31	38% 1353-2203 (3556)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Jannik Opitzavg 96.6¢	$50.47	$50.73	+$0.26	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Jannik Opitzavg 97¢	$19.4	$19.53	+$0.13	53% 223-196 (419)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Jared Horwoodavg 1¢	$5.21	$3.01	-$2.2	48% 643-686 (1329)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Jared Horwoodavg 4.1¢	$1.48	$1.74	+$0.26	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Jared Horwoodavg 3.5¢	$0.18	$0.33	+$0.15	39% 1595-2514 (4109)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Jared Horwoodavg 3¢	$0.3	$0.11	-$0.03	35% 277-525 (802)

MadridTime

Jannik Opitz

Invested

$1,585.58

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$14.4

Record

38%

1375-2208 (3583)

NotJumpCTR

Jared Horwood

Invested

$1,050

Value

$567.01

PnL

+$0.25

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

thestingsnake

Jannik Opitz

Invested

$348.69

Value

$352.95

PnL

+$4.26

Record

36%

259-457 (716)

Venusian

Jannik Opitz

Invested

$302.22

Value

$301.73

PnL

-$0.49

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

thirdt1me

Jannik Opitz

Invested

$194.2

Value

$195.3

PnL

+$1.1

Record

47%

376-418 (794)

38791873984189

Jannik Opitz

Invested

$996.84

Value

$169.81

PnL

+$20.67

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

Limousin<$100

Jannik Opitz

Invested

$81.26

Value

$79.95

PnL

-$1.31

Record

38%

1353-2203 (3556)

Flaznorp<$100

Jannik Opitz

Invested

$50.47

Value

$50.73

PnL

+$0.26

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

Eulhunter<$100

Jannik Opitz

Invested

$19.4

Value

$19.53

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

223-196 (419)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Jared Horwood

Invested

$5.21

Value

$3.01

PnL

-$2.2

Record

48%

643-686 (1329)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Jared Horwood

Invested

$1.48

Value

$1.74

PnL

+$0.26

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Jared Horwood

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.33

PnL

+$0.15

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

babybellsCTR<$100

Jared Horwood

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.03

Record

35%

277-525 (802)

Research grade

NeutralJannik Opitz at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Jannik Opitz

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jannik Opitz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.