Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Philip Sekulic, while the market favors August Holmgren (85%). 5 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Brisbane 3: August Holmgren vs Philip Sekulic

5 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Philip Sekulic (33%) · Philip Sekulic at 16¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 16

August Holmgren85¢Philip Sekulic15¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Philip Sekulic

Consensus Traders

Philip Sekulic 33%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$859.1

Smart Money Entry

29.3¢ → 15.5¢

-47% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidPhilip Sekulic at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Philip Sekulic

5 of 15 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors August Holmgren 85%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

August Holmgren85%

Philip Sekulic16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Philip Sekulic5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares7,828

Combined PnL-$967.48

August Holmgren10 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,556

Combined PnL+$108.38

Philip Sekulic — 33%August Holmgren — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Philip Sekulicavg 33.5¢	$1.8K	$912.24	-$867.8	54% 1570-1320 (2890)
LI LightParadox	August Holmgrenavg 73.4¢	$388.62	$447.24	+$58.63	23% 182-609 (791)
FL Flaznorp	August Holmgrenavg 63.8¢	$338.29	$442.41	+$104.12	50% 1318-1340 (2658)
VE Venusian	August Holmgrenavg 63¢	$399.85	$406.2	+$6.35	24% 190-616 (806)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Philip Sekulicavg 22.4¢	$428.61	$314.63	-$103.17	31% 48-106 (154)
TH thestingsnake	August Holmgrenavg 62.8¢	$300.55	$252.71	+$16.47	14% 52-322 (374)
LI Limousin	August Holmgrenavg 81.6¢	$362.56	$244.37	-$86.19	23% 185-620 (805)
RN1CTR	Philip Sekulicavg 35¢	$126.57	$128.38	+$1.81	58% 3695-2661 (6356)
VeryLucky888	August Holmgrenavg 62¢	$98.35	$106.28	+$7.93	46% 178-207 (385)
38 38791873984189CTR	Philip Sekulicavg 14¢	$102.2	$105.85	+$3.65	48% 644-687 (1331)
BA babybells<$100	August Holmgrenavg 64¢	$41.6	$41.93	+$0.33	14% 57-349 (406)
PA Pan9X<$100	August Holmgrenavg 63¢	$20.16	$21.44	+$1.28	48% 373-401 (774)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	August Holmgrenavg 66.3¢	$18.55	$17.92	-$0.63	10% 50-447 (497)
machinelearned<$100	August Holmgrenavg 63¢	$6.3	$6.4	+$0.1	28% 215-564 (779)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Philip Sekulicavg 33¢	$4.18	$2.22	-$1.96	24% 184-598 (782)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Philip Sekulic

Invested

$1,780.04

Value

$912.24

PnL

-$867.8

Record

54%

1570-1320 (2890)

LightParadox

August Holmgren

Invested

$388.62

Value

$447.24

PnL

+$58.63

Record

23%

182-609 (791)

Flaznorp

August Holmgren

Invested

$338.29

Value

$442.41

PnL

+$104.12

Record

50%

1318-1340 (2658)

Venusian

August Holmgren

Invested

$399.85

Value

$406.2

PnL

+$6.35

Record

24%

190-616 (806)

thirdt1meCTR

Philip Sekulic

Invested

$428.61

Value

$314.63

PnL

-$103.17

Record

31%

48-106 (154)

thestingsnake

August Holmgren

Invested

$300.55

Value

$252.71

PnL

+$16.47

Record

14%

52-322 (374)

Limousin

August Holmgren

Invested

$362.56

Value

$244.37

PnL

-$86.19

Record

23%

185-620 (805)

RN1CTR

Philip Sekulic

Invested

$126.57

Value

$128.38

PnL

+$1.81

Record

58%

3695-2661 (6356)

VeryLucky888

August Holmgren

Invested

$98.35

Value

$106.28

PnL

+$7.93

Record

46%

178-207 (385)

38791873984189CTR

Philip Sekulic

Invested

$102.2

Value

$105.85

PnL

+$3.65

Record

48%

644-687 (1331)

babybells<$100

August Holmgren

Invested

$41.6

Value

$41.93

PnL

+$0.33

Record

14%

57-349 (406)

Pan9X<$100

August Holmgren

Invested

$20.16

Value

$21.44

PnL

+$1.28

Record

48%

373-401 (774)

BillBenter2026<$100

August Holmgren

Invested

$18.55

Value

$17.92

PnL

-$0.63

Record

10%

50-447 (497)

machinelearned<$100

August Holmgren

Invested

$6.3

Value

$6.4

PnL

+$0.1

Record

28%

215-564 (779)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Philip Sekulic

Invested

$4.18

Value

$2.22

PnL

-$1.96

Record

24%

184-598 (782)

Research grade

AvoidPhilip Sekulic at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Philip Sekulic

5 of 15 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors August Holmgren 85%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Philip Sekulic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.2%

15.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$481.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

581.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.