Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold August Holmgren, while the market favors Christopher O'Connell (62%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Brisbane 3: August Holmgren vs Christopher O'Connell
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold August Holmgren (80%) · August Holmgren at 39¢ · $126 held · ends Nov 18
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Research candidate
August Holmgren
5
August Holmgren 80%
$126.31
-$0.31
Research grade
Research candidateAugust Holmgren at 39%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Christopher O'Connell 62%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on August Holmgren. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | August Holmgrenavg 37¢ | $55.5 | $55.5 | -$0 | 55% 119-96 (215) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Christopher O'Connellavg 62¢ | $41.7 | $39.85 | +$0.05 | 49% 443-470 (913) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | August Holmgrenavg 38¢ | $17.49 | $17.03 | -$0.46 | 28% 284-730 (1014) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | August Holmgrenavg 37¢ | $11.34 | $11.34 | -$0 | 50% 1503-1507 (3010) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | August Holmgrenavg 37¢ | $2.49 | $2.59 | +$0.1 | 34% 233-457 (690) |
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$55.5
Value
$55.5
PnL
-$0
Record
55%
119-96 (215)
Invested
$41.7
Value
$39.85
PnL
+$0.05
Record
49%
443-470 (913)
Invested
$17.49
Value
$17.03
PnL
-$0.46
Record
28%
284-730 (1014)
Invested
$11.34
Value
$11.34
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
1503-1507 (3010)
Invested
$2.49
Value
$2.59
PnL
+$0.1
Record
34%
233-457 (690)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.