Montevideo: Nicolas Hollender vs Ryan Nijboer

10 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Ryan Nijboer (56%) · Ryan Nijboer at 99¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 22

Nicolas Hollender1¢Ryan Nijboer99¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ryan Nijboer

Consensus Traders

Ryan Nijboer 56%

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

-$53.99

Smart Money Entry

85.9¢ → 99¢

+15% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralRyan Nijboer at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ryan Nijboer

10 of 18 top traders (56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Nicolas Hollender1%

Ryan Nijboer99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ryan Nijboer10 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares5,372

Combined PnL+$9.35

Nicolas Hollender8 traders

Total Value$143.4

Total Shares4,092

Combined PnL-$63.34

Ryan Nijboer — 56%Nicolas Hollender — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-32 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Ryan Nijboer. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRyan Nijboer 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedRyan Nijboer 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Ryan Nijboer 56% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Ryan Nijboeravg 94.7¢	$3.2K	$1.0K	+$24.06	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
NO NotJump	Ryan Nijboeravg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$4.94	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
LI LightParadox	Ryan Nijboeravg 94.1¢	$659.35	$677.75	+$20.05	38% 1375-2257 (3632)
RN1	Ryan Nijboeravg 97.7¢	$641.26	$601.5	-$39.76	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
MA MadridTime	Ryan Nijboeravg 93.3¢	$444.18	$447.19	+$3.01	38% 1375-2208 (3583)
TH thestingsnake	Ryan Nijboeravg 90.7¢	$393.86	$421.34	+$32.31	36% 259-457 (716)
CI cigarettes	Ryan Nijboeravg 94.1¢	$423.45	$411.75	-$11.7	53% 7546-6651 (14197)
LI Limousin	Ryan Nijboeravg 97.2¢	$380.33	$362.61	-$17.71	38% 1353-2203 (3556)
VE Venusian	Ryan Nijboeravg 93.4¢	$248.41	$220.69	+$5.61	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Nicolas Hollenderavg 2.9¢	$16.21	$47.51	+$31.3	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Nicolas Hollenderavg 6.3¢	$163.24	$44.15	-$119.09	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Ryan Nijboeravg 96.6¢	$29.78	$28.21	-$1.57	53% 223-196 (419)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Nicolas Hollenderavg 3.2¢	$7.23	$19.13	+$11.9	39% 1595-2514 (4109)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Nicolas Hollenderavg 3.5¢	$5.82	$14.09	+$8.28	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Nicolas Hollenderavg 3¢	$2.94	$8.33	+$5.39	44% 92-119 (211)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Nicolas Hollenderavg 2.5¢	$10.23	$6.95	-$3.27	41% 744-1054 (1798)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Nicolas Hollenderavg 2.8¢	$0.92	$2.81	+$1.89	48% 643-686 (1329)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Nicolas Hollenderavg 3.1¢	$0.15	$0.42	+$0.27	49% 400-411 (811)

38791873984189

Ryan Nijboer

Invested

$3,203.25

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$24.06

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

NotJump

Ryan Nijboer

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$4.94

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

LightParadox

Ryan Nijboer

Invested

$659.35

Value

$677.75

PnL

+$20.05

Record

38%

1375-2257 (3632)

RN1

Ryan Nijboer

Invested

$641.26

Value

$601.5

PnL

-$39.76

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

MadridTime

Ryan Nijboer

Invested

$444.18

Value

$447.19

PnL

+$3.01

Record

38%

1375-2208 (3583)

thestingsnake

Ryan Nijboer

Invested

$393.86

Value

$421.34

PnL

+$32.31

Record

36%

259-457 (716)

cigarettes

Ryan Nijboer

Invested

$423.45

Value

$411.75

PnL

-$11.7

Record

53%

7546-6651 (14197)

Limousin

Ryan Nijboer

Invested

$380.33

Value

$362.61

PnL

-$17.71

Record

38%

1353-2203 (3556)

Venusian

Ryan Nijboer

Invested

$248.41

Value

$220.69

PnL

+$5.61

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Nicolas Hollender

Invested

$16.21

Value

$47.51

PnL

+$31.3

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Nicolas Hollender

Invested

$163.24

Value

$44.15

PnL

-$119.09

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

Eulhunter<$100

Ryan Nijboer

Invested

$29.78

Value

$28.21

PnL

-$1.57

Record

53%

223-196 (419)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Nicolas Hollender

Invested

$7.23

Value

$19.13

PnL

+$11.9

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Nicolas Hollender

Invested

$5.82

Value

$14.09

PnL

+$8.28

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Nicolas Hollender

Invested

$2.94

Value

$8.33

PnL

+$5.39

Record

44%

92-119 (211)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Nicolas Hollender

Invested

$10.23

Value

$6.95

PnL

-$3.27

Record

41%

744-1054 (1798)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Nicolas Hollender

Invested

$0.92

Value

$2.81

PnL

+$1.89

Record

48%

643-686 (1329)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Nicolas Hollender

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.42

PnL

+$0.27

Record

49%

400-411 (811)

Research grade

NeutralRyan Nijboer at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Ryan Nijboer

10 of 18 top traders (56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-32 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Ryan Nijboer. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRyan Nijboer 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedRyan Nijboer 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Ryan Nijboer 56% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ryan Nijboer wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.