Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Michele Ribecai, while the market favors Philip Henning (56%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Hersonissos 3: Philip Henning vs Michele Ribecai

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Michele Ribecai (89%) · Michele Ribecai at 44¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 22

Philip Henning56¢Michele Ribecai44¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Michele Ribecai

Consensus Traders

Michele Ribecai 89%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$14.49

Smart Money Entry

42.9¢ → 43.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralMichele Ribecai at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Michele Ribecai

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Philip Henning 56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Philip Henning56%

Michele Ribecai44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Michele Ribecai8 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,994

Combined PnL+$14.49

Philip Henning1 trader

Total Value$35.53

Total Shares63

Combined PnL+$0

Michele Ribecai — 89%Philip Henning — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Michele Ribecai. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpPhilip Henning 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMichele Ribecai 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Michele Ribecai 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Michele Ribecaiavg 43¢	$508.69	$514.61	+$5.92	49% 4560-4822 (9382)
VeryLucky888CTR	Michele Ribecaiavg 43¢	$430	$435	+$5	53% 1805-1593 (3398)
EF efntrickCTR	Michele Ribecaiavg 43¢	$127.08	$127.08	-$0	45% 108-130 (238)
SE sentrioCTR	Michele Ribecaiavg 43¢	$116.42	$116.42	+$0	41% 1159-1644 (2803)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Michele Ribecaiavg 41¢	$41	$43.01	+$2.01	38% 1303-2129 (3432)
HY hydra1248<$100	Philip Henningavg 56¢	$35.53	$35.53	+$0	75% 223-76 (299)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Michele Ribecaiavg 39.9¢	$24.96	$26.89	+$1.93	38% 1301-2146 (3447)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Michele Ribecaiavg 43¢	$19.78	$19.78	+$0	50% 2098-2139 (4237)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Michele Ribecaiavg 44¢	$15.77	$15.41	-$0.36	56% 635-502 (1137)

FlaznorpCTR

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$508.69

Value

$514.61

PnL

+$5.92

Record

49%

4560-4822 (9382)

VeryLucky888CTR

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$430

Value

$435

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

1805-1593 (3398)

efntrickCTR

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$127.08

Value

$127.08

PnL

-$0

Record

45%

108-130 (238)

sentrioCTR

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$116.42

Value

$116.42

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

1159-1644 (2803)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$41

Value

$43.01

PnL

+$2.01

Record

38%

1303-2129 (3432)

hydra1248<$100

Philip Henning

Invested

$35.53

Value

$35.53

PnL

+$0

Record

75%

223-76 (299)

VenusianCTR<$100

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$24.96

Value

$26.89

PnL

+$1.93

Record

38%

1301-2146 (3447)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$19.78

Value

$19.78

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

2098-2139 (4237)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$15.77

Value

$15.41

PnL

-$0.36

Record

56%

635-502 (1137)

Research grade

NeutralMichele Ribecai at 44%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Michele Ribecai

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Philip Henning 56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Michele Ribecai. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpPhilip Henning 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMichele Ribecai 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Michele Ribecai 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Michele Ribecai wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.