Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Calvin Hemery, while the market favors Lucas Poullain (81%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Orleans: Calvin Hemery vs Lucas Poullain

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Calvin Hemery (40%) · Calvin Hemery at 20¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16

Calvin Hemery20¢Lucas Poullain80¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Calvin Hemery

Consensus Traders

Calvin Hemery 40%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$36.53

Smart Money Entry

45.1¢ → 19.5¢

-57% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidCalvin Hemery at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Calvin Hemery

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Lucas Poullain 81%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Calvin Hemery20%

Lucas Poullain81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Calvin Hemery4 traders

Total Value$989.22

Total Shares2,262

Combined PnL-$30.86

Lucas Poullain6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,543

Combined PnL+$67.4

Calvin Hemery — 40%Lucas Poullain — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTimeCTR	Calvin Hemeryavg 46.2¢	$822.15	$826.82	+$4.67	45% 2742-3329 (6071)
TRCM	Lucas Poullainavg 64.7¢	$346.2	$355.91	+$9.71	55% 4140-3334 (7474)
FL Flaznorp	Lucas Poullainavg 69.6¢	$248.82	$287.95	+$39.13	52% 49624-46573 (96197)
LI LightParadox	Lucas Poullainavg 55.2¢	$269.29	$260.68	-$8.61	45% 2723-3293 (6016)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Lucas Poullainavg 82¢	$211.98	$196.5	-$15.48	51% 6120-5875 (11995)
└ Lucas Poullain leg	Lucas Poullainavg 82¢	$126.46	$124.15	-$2.31
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 23¢	$85.52	$72.35	-$13.16
LI LimousinCTR	Calvin Hemeryavg 45.8¢	$119.2	$121.13	+$1.93	46% 2839-3298 (6137)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Lucas Poullainavg 74.2¢	$79.46	$88.36	+$8.9	60% 4654-3141 (7795)
tradecraft<$100	Lucas Poullainavg 70¢	$70	$81.5	+$11.5	51% 6933-6582 (13515)
TH thirdt1meARB<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 29¢	$261.74	$79.42	-$8.67	58% 233-171 (404)
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 29¢	$81.73	$49.24	-$25.06
└ Lucas Poullain leg	Lucas Poullainavg 54.8¢	$20.04	$30.19	+$16.38
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 36.4¢	$70.33	$35.72	-$34.61	50% 24138-24257 (48395)
38 38791873984189<$100	Lucas Poullainavg 58¢	$15.11	$21.88	+$6.77	48% 72230-77977 (150207)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 28¢	$8.4	$5.55	-$2.85	54% 10552-8959 (19511)

MadridTimeCTR

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$822.15

Value

$826.82

PnL

+$4.67

Record

45%

2742-3329 (6071)

TRCM

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$346.2

Value

$355.91

PnL

+$9.71

Record

55%

4140-3334 (7474)

Flaznorp

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$248.82

Value

$287.95

PnL

+$39.13

Record

52%

49624-46573 (96197)

LightParadox

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$269.29

Value

$260.68

PnL

-$8.61

Record

45%

2723-3293 (6016)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$211.98

Value

$196.5

PnL

-$15.48

Record

51%

6120-5875 (11995)

Both legs:

Lucas Poullain$126.4682¢-$2.31

Calvin Hemery$85.5223¢-$13.16

LimousinCTR

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$119.2

Value

$121.13

PnL

+$1.93

Record

46%

2839-3298 (6137)

thestingsnake<$100

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$79.46

Value

$88.36

PnL

+$8.9

Record

60%

4654-3141 (7795)

tradecraft<$100

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$70

Value

$81.5

PnL

+$11.5

Record

51%

6933-6582 (13515)

thirdt1meARB<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$261.74

Value

$79.42

PnL

-$8.67

Record

58%

233-171 (404)

Both legs:

Calvin Hemery$81.7329¢-$25.06

Lucas Poullain$20.0454.8¢+$16.38

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$70.33

Value

$35.72

PnL

-$34.61

Record

50%

24138-24257 (48395)

38791873984189<$100

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$15.11

Value

$21.88

PnL

+$6.77

Record

48%

72230-77977 (150207)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$8.4

Value

$5.55

PnL

-$2.85

Record

54%

10552-8959 (19511)

Research grade

AvoidCalvin Hemery at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Calvin Hemery

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Lucas Poullain 81%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Calvin Hemery wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.3%

19.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$369.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

469.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.