Orleans: Calvin Hemery vs Pedro Martinez

19 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold Pedro Martinez (59%) · Pedro Martinez at 83¢ · $40K held · ends Nov 20

Calvin Hemery18¢Pedro Martinez82¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Pedro Martinez

Consensus Traders

Pedro Martinez 59%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$39.9K

Combined PnL

$2.2K

Smart Money Entry

69.5¢ → 82.5¢

+19% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralPedro Martinez at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pedro Martinez

19 of 32 top traders (59%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Calvin Hemery18%

Pedro Martinez83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pedro Martinez19 traders

Total Value$32.4K

Total Shares37,456

Combined PnL+$4.2K

Calvin Hemery13 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares17,162

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Pedro Martinez — 59%Calvin Hemery — 41%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on Pedro Martinez. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpPedro Martinez 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrCalvin Hemery 62% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedPedro Martinez 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Pedro Martinez 59% · 27

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Pedro Martinezavg 64.2¢	$8.1K	$10.3K	+$2.2K	50% 3670-3617 (7287)
MA MadridTime	Pedro Martinezavg 70.5¢	$7.2K	$7.9K	+$661.93	36% 761-1361 (2122)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Pedro Martinezavg 69.5¢	$5.1K	$5.9K	+$840.24	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
JO JokerTheClown	Pedro Martinezavg 83¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	-$17.5	5% 11-197 (208)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 37.2¢	$3.8K	$2.2K	$-1.5K	35% 749-1385 (2134)
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 37.2¢	$2.9K	$1.5K	$-1.5K
└ Pedro Martinez leg	Pedro Martinezavg 82.6¢	$682.44	$665.44	-$17
FL Flaznorp	Pedro Martinezavg 69.4¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$48.36	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
VE VenusianCTR	Calvin Hemeryavg 41.7¢	$2.7K	$1.3K	$-1.4K	34% 735-1404 (2139)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 40.7¢	$2.3K	$1.1K	+$116.7	53% 631-566 (1197)
└ Pedro Martinez leg	Pedro Martinezavg 58.3¢	$512.65	$725.41	+$653.87
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 40.7¢	$764.74	$328.87	-$537.17
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Pedro Martinezavg 74.1¢	$947.58	$982.36	+$34.79	56% 3978-3112 (7090)
TH thirdt1me	Pedro Martinezavg 77.4¢	$1.8K	$918.91	+$233.18	47% 212-243 (455)
RN1	Pedro Martinezavg 56¢	$586.38	$848.16	+$261.78	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 28¢	$1.1K	$832.56	-$225.9	35% 735-1379 (2114)
└ Pedro Martinez leg	Pedro Martinezavg 75¢	$397.54	$442.53	+$44.99
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 28¢	$660.92	$390.03	-$270.89
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Calvin Hemeryavg 42¢	$1.3K	$593.94	-$718.98	43% 68-91 (159)
0X 0x7750cdd6207bda401911ad3657253af46491a3f3CTR	Calvin Hemeryavg 16.8¢	$500	$580.37	+$80.37	— 1-13 (14)
VeryLucky888CTR	Calvin Hemeryavg 42¢	$1.3K	$576.67	-$687.59	53% 1030-921 (1951)
EU Eulhunter	Pedro Martinezavg 80.4¢	$304.75	$320.29	+$15.54	50% 167-168 (335)
1L 1lovejump	Pedro Martinezavg 62.7¢	$434.8	$231.48	-$29.41	38% 113-184 (297)
OM omnibus-076daa	Pedro Martinezavg 70.1¢	$158.52	$183.26	+$24.74	44% 391-495 (886)
BA babybells	Pedro Martinezavg 75.1¢	$390.46	$150.33	+$33.35	29% 185-458 (643)
machinelearned	Pedro Martinezavg 62.5¢	$123.73	$142.37	+$18.64	44% 861-1076 (1937)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Calvin Hemeryavg 30.9¢	$1.1K	$126.58	+$16.32	33% 203-420 (623)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Calvin Hemeryavg 17.1¢	$2.5K	$101.42	+$783.01	48% 423-457 (880)
PA pauleta23	Pedro Martinezavg 80¢	$96.05	$100.23	+$4.18	38% 370-597 (967)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Pedro Martinezavg 66.4¢	$47.13	$58.57	+$11.45	28% 211-555 (766)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 28¢	$51.78	$43.6	-$8.18	26% 250-703 (953)

6512395314597884

Pedro Martinez

Invested

$8,148.82

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

50%

3670-3617 (7287)

MadridTime

Pedro Martinez

Invested

$7,193.16

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$661.93

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Pedro Martinez

Invested

$5,078.69

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$840.24

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

JokerTheClown

Pedro Martinez

Invested

$2,905

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$17.5

Record

11-197 (208)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$3,773.37

Value

$2.2K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

Both legs:

Calvin Hemery$2,921.2237.2¢$-1.5K

Pedro Martinez$682.4482.6¢-$17

Flaznorp

Pedro Martinez

Invested

$1,494.91

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$48.36

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

VenusianCTR

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$2,666.95

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

NotJumpARB<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$2,316.69

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$116.7

Record

53%

631-566 (1197)

Both legs:

Pedro Martinez$512.6558.3¢+$653.87

Calvin Hemery$764.7440.7¢-$537.17

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Pedro Martinez

Invested

$947.58

Value

$982.36

PnL

+$34.79

Record

56%

3978-3112 (7090)

thirdt1me

Pedro Martinez

Invested

$1,767.97

Value

$918.91

PnL

+$233.18

Record

47%

212-243 (455)

RN1

Pedro Martinez

Invested

$586.38

Value

$848.16

PnL

+$261.78

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

LimousinARB<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$1,058.46

Value

$832.56

PnL

-$225.9

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

Both legs:

Pedro Martinez$397.5475¢+$44.99

Calvin Hemery$660.9228¢-$270.89

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$1,312.92

Value

$593.94

PnL

-$718.98

Record

43%

68-91 (159)

0x7750cdd6207bda401911ad3657253af46491a3f3CTR

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$500

Value

$580.37

PnL

+$80.37

Record

—

1-13 (14)

VeryLucky888CTR

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$1,274.46

Value

$576.67

PnL

-$687.59

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

Eulhunter

Pedro Martinez

Invested

$304.75

Value

$320.29

PnL

+$15.54

Record

50%

167-168 (335)

1lovejump

Pedro Martinez

Invested

$434.8

Value

$231.48

PnL

-$29.41

Record

38%

113-184 (297)

omnibus-076daa

Pedro Martinez

Invested

$158.52

Value

$183.26

PnL

+$24.74

Record

44%

391-495 (886)

babybells

Pedro Martinez

Invested

$390.46

Value

$150.33

PnL

+$33.35

Record

29%

185-458 (643)

machinelearned

Pedro Martinez

Invested

$123.73

Value

$142.37

PnL

+$18.64

Record

44%

861-1076 (1937)

thestingsnakeCTR

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$1,110.17

Value

$126.58

PnL

+$16.32

Record

33%

203-420 (623)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$2,457.47

Value

$101.42

PnL

+$783.01

Record

48%

423-457 (880)

pauleta23

Pedro Martinez

Invested

$96.05

Value

$100.23

PnL

+$4.18

Record

38%

370-597 (967)

BillBenter2026<$100

Pedro Martinez

Invested

$47.13

Value

$58.57

PnL

+$11.45

Record

28%

211-555 (766)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$51.78

Value

$43.6

PnL

-$8.18

Record

26%

250-703 (953)

Research grade

NeutralPedro Martinez at 83%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Pedro Martinez

19 of 32 top traders (59%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on Pedro Martinez. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpPedro Martinez 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrCalvin Hemery 62% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedPedro Martinez 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Pedro Martinez 59% · 27

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pedro Martinez wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.