Champaign: Hunter Heck vs Jon Gamble

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Hunter Heck (33%) · Hunter Heck at 95¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 22

Hunter Heck95¢Jon Gamble5¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hunter Heck

Consensus Traders

Hunter Heck 33%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$23

Smart Money Entry

64.8¢ → 94.5¢

+46% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralHunter Heck at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hunter Heck

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Hunter Heck95%

Jon Gamble6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hunter Heck4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,580

Combined PnL-$4.98

Jon Gamble8 traders

Total Value$72.6

Total Shares1,314

Combined PnL-$18.02

Hunter Heck — 33%Jon Gamble — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJump	Hunter Heckavg 64.1¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$4.97	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Jon Gambleavg 7.4¢	$54.02	$40.12	-$13.9	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Hunter Heckavg 94¢	$23.25	$23.2	-$0.05	36% 259-457 (716)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Jon Gambleavg 6¢	$20.92	$19.18	-$1.74	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Jon Gambleavg 7¢	$12.14	$9.52	-$2.62	38% 1375-2257 (3632)
LI Limousin<$100	Hunter Heckavg 94¢	$9.4	$9.45	+$0.05	38% 1353-2203 (3556)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Jon Gambleavg 5.5¢	$1.72	$2.03	+$0.31	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Hunter Heckavg 89¢	$1.74	$1.73	-$0.01	53% 223-196 (419)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Jon Gambleavg 6¢	$1.02	$0.94	-$0.08	48% 2576-2780 (5356)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Jon Gambleavg 5¢	$0.25	$0.28	+$0.03	35% 277-525 (802)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Jon Gambleavg 5¢	$0.25	$0.28	+$0.03	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Jon Gambleavg 6¢	$0.3	$0.28	-$0.02	47% 376-418 (794)

NotJump

Hunter Heck

Invested

$1,514.57

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$4.97

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

VenusianCTR<$100

Jon Gamble

Invested

$54.02

Value

$40.12

PnL

-$13.9

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

thestingsnake<$100

Hunter Heck

Invested

$23.25

Value

$23.2

PnL

-$0.05

Record

36%

259-457 (716)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Jon Gamble

Invested

$20.92

Value

$19.18

PnL

-$1.74

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Jon Gamble

Invested

$12.14

Value

$9.52

PnL

-$2.62

Record

38%

1375-2257 (3632)

Limousin<$100

Hunter Heck

Invested

$9.4

Value

$9.45

PnL

+$0.05

Record

38%

1353-2203 (3556)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Jon Gamble

Invested

$1.72

Value

$2.03

PnL

+$0.31

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

Eulhunter<$100

Hunter Heck

Invested

$1.74

Value

$1.73

PnL

-$0.01

Record

53%

223-196 (419)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Jon Gamble

Invested

$1.02

Value

$0.94

PnL

-$0.08

Record

48%

2576-2780 (5356)

babybellsCTR<$100

Jon Gamble

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.28

PnL

+$0.03

Record

35%

277-525 (802)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Jon Gamble

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.28

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Jon Gamble

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$0.02

Record

47%

376-418 (794)

Research grade

NeutralHunter Heck at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Hunter Heck

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hunter Heck wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.