Sydney: Hayden Jones vs Naoki Nakagawa

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Naoki Nakagawa (64%) · Naoki Nakagawa at 57¢ · $738 held · ends Nov 22

Hayden Jones43¢Naoki Nakagawa57¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Naoki Nakagawa

Consensus Traders

Naoki Nakagawa 64%

Total Value

$738.45

Combined PnL

-$22.7

Smart Money Entry

55.1¢ → 57.5¢

+4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNaoki Nakagawa at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Naoki Nakagawa

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Hayden Jones43%

Naoki Nakagawa57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Naoki Nakagawa7 traders

Total Value$717.53

Total Shares1,249

Combined PnL-$22.84

Hayden Jones4 traders

Total Value$20.92

Total Shares46

Combined PnL+$0.13

Naoki Nakagawa — 64%Hayden Jones — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Naoki Nakagawa. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNaoki Nakagawa 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Naoki Nakagawa 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Naoki Nakagawaavg 57¢	$280.17	$280.04	-$0.13	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
EF efntrick	Naoki Nakagawaavg 55.5¢	$177.6	$163.2	-$14.4	45% 99-121 (220)
38 38791873984189	Naoki Nakagawaavg 52¢	$104.82	$105.83	+$1.01	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
GA Gaditima<$100	Naoki Nakagawaavg 54¢	$92.83	$87.67	-$5.16	49% 324-333 (657)
PA Pan9X<$100	Naoki Nakagawaavg 56.4¢	$46.24	$41.82	-$4.42	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
0xheavy888<$100	Naoki Nakagawaavg 51.6¢	$22.64	$23.06	+$0.41	56% 574-455 (1029)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Naoki Nakagawaavg 53¢	$16.06	$15.91	-$0.15	46% 558-656 (1214)
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100	Hayden Jonesavg 48¢	$10	$9.89	-$0.1	46% 189-223 (412)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Hayden Jonesavg 43¢	$6.06	$6.2	+$0.14	45% 424-518 (942)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Hayden Jonesavg 45¢	$2.77	$2.89	+$0.12	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Hayden Jonesavg 39¢	$1.95	$1.93	-$0.02	38% 1183-1919 (3102)

Flaznorp

Naoki Nakagawa

Invested

$280.17

Value

$280.04

PnL

-$0.13

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

efntrick

Naoki Nakagawa

Invested

$177.6

Value

$163.2

PnL

-$14.4

Record

45%

99-121 (220)

38791873984189

Naoki Nakagawa

Invested

$104.82

Value

$105.83

PnL

+$1.01

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

Gaditima<$100

Naoki Nakagawa

Invested

$92.83

Value

$87.67

PnL

-$5.16

Record

49%

324-333 (657)

Pan9X<$100

Naoki Nakagawa

Invested

$46.24

Value

$41.82

PnL

-$4.42

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

0xheavy888<$100

Naoki Nakagawa

Invested

$22.64

Value

$23.06

PnL

+$0.41

Record

56%

574-455 (1029)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Naoki Nakagawa

Invested

$16.06

Value

$15.91

PnL

-$0.15

Record

46%

558-656 (1214)

glennyorkshireCTR<$100

Hayden Jones

Invested

$10

Value

$9.89

PnL

-$0.1

Record

46%

189-223 (412)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Hayden Jones

Invested

$6.06

Value

$6.2

PnL

+$0.14

Record

45%

424-518 (942)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Hayden Jones

Invested

$2.77

Value

$2.89

PnL

+$0.12

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Hayden Jones

Invested

$1.95

Value

$1.93

PnL

-$0.02

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

Research grade

NeutralNaoki Nakagawa at 57%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Naoki Nakagawa

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Naoki Nakagawa. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNaoki Nakagawa 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Naoki Nakagawa 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Naoki Nakagawa wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.