Kobe: Benjamin Hassan vs Jumpei Yamasaki

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Benjamin Hassan (56%) · Benjamin Hassan at 72¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 22

Benjamin Hassan72¢Jumpei Yamasaki28¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Benjamin Hassan

Consensus Traders

Benjamin Hassan 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$108.5

Smart Money Entry

77.5¢ → 72¢

-7% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralBenjamin Hassan at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Benjamin Hassan

9 of 16 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Benjamin Hassan72%

Jumpei Yamasaki28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Benjamin Hassan9 traders

Total Value$955.54

Total Shares1,209

Combined PnL+$14.56

Jumpei Yamasaki7 traders

Total Value$468.45

Total Shares1,879

Combined PnL+$93.94

Benjamin Hassan — 56%Jumpei Yamasaki — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+33 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Benjamin Hassan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Benjamin Hassan) and the top 1000 (7 on Jumpei Yamasaki) disagree here.

ctrBenjamin Hassan 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedBenjamin Hassan 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Jumpei Yamasaki 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Jumpei Yamasakiavg 50¢	$1.1K	$967.06	-$0.44	50% 1082-1078 (2160)
└ Benjamin Hassan leg	Benjamin Hassanavg 50¢	$472.72	$737.45	+$294
└ Jumpei Yamasaki leg	Jumpei Yamasakiavg 50¢	$521.83	$229.61	-$294.44
VeryLucky888	Benjamin Hassanavg 78.8¢	$256.25	$277.88	+$21.63	53% 1830-1600 (3430)
LI Limousin	Benjamin Hassanavg 78¢	$288.6	$271.95	-$16.65	38% 1285-2123 (3408)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Jumpei Yamasakiavg 20.1¢	$132.88	$188.46	+$55.59	48% 365-391 (756)
EF efntrick	Benjamin Hassanavg 77¢	$173.53	$175.78	+$2.25	46% 110-131 (241)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Benjamin Hassanavg 73¢	$128.98	$129.86	+$0.88	50% 2815-2819 (5634)
RN1CTR	Jumpei Yamasakiavg 22¢	$102.67	$102.67	+$0	54% 5964-5028 (10992)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Benjamin Hassanavg 84¢	$71.55	$82.18	+$10.63	35% 238-445 (683)
└ Benjamin Hassan leg	Benjamin Hassanavg 84¢	$42	$41.75	-$0.25
└ Jumpei Yamasaki leg	Jumpei Yamasakiavg 12.1¢	$29.55	$40.43	+$10.88
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Jumpei Yamasakiavg 18.9¢	$46.4	$69.82	+$23.42	33% 256-511 (767)
LI LightParadox<$100	Benjamin Hassanavg 82¢	$51.95	$53.55	+$1.6	37% 1306-2184 (3490)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Jumpei Yamasakiavg 16¢	$39.92	$51.15	+$11.23	49% 613-640 (1253)
38 38791873984189	Benjamin Hassanavg 77¢	$243.05	$30.82	+$4.77	48% 3894-4243 (8137)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Jumpei Yamasakiavg 21¢	$27.91	$29.24	+$1.33	49% 4575-4833 (9408)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Jumpei Yamasakiavg 20¢	$24.17	$26.59	+$2.42	45% 90-110 (200)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Benjamin Hassanavg 79.5¢	$7.95	$8.05	+$0.1	32% 289-614 (903)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Benjamin Hassanavg 79¢	$4	$3.95	-$0.05	62% 261-158 (419)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Benjamin Hassanavg 71¢	$3.67	$3.7	+$0.03	45% 446-545 (991)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Jumpei Yamasakiavg 24¢	$0.56	$0.51	-$0.05	50% 2137-2158 (4295)

NotJumpARB<$100

Jumpei Yamasaki

Invested

$1,050

Value

$967.06

PnL

-$0.44

Record

50%

1082-1078 (2160)

Both legs:

Benjamin Hassan$472.7250¢+$294

Jumpei Yamasaki$521.8350¢-$294.44

VeryLucky888

Benjamin Hassan

Invested

$256.25

Value

$277.88

PnL

+$21.63

Record

53%

1830-1600 (3430)

Limousin

Benjamin Hassan

Invested

$288.6

Value

$271.95

PnL

-$16.65

Record

38%

1285-2123 (3408)

thirdt1meCTR

Jumpei Yamasaki

Invested

$132.88

Value

$188.46

PnL

+$55.59

Record

48%

365-391 (756)

efntrick

Benjamin Hassan

Invested

$173.53

Value

$175.78

PnL

+$2.25

Record

46%

110-131 (241)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Benjamin Hassan

Invested

$128.98

Value

$129.86

PnL

+$0.88

Record

50%

2815-2819 (5634)

RN1CTR

Jumpei Yamasaki

Invested

$102.67

Value

$102.67

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

5964-5028 (10992)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Benjamin Hassan

Invested

$71.55

Value

$82.18

PnL

+$10.63

Record

35%

238-445 (683)

Both legs:

Benjamin Hassan$4284¢-$0.25

Jumpei Yamasaki$29.5512.1¢+$10.88

babybellsCTR<$100

Jumpei Yamasaki

Invested

$46.4

Value

$69.82

PnL

+$23.42

Record

33%

256-511 (767)

LightParadox<$100

Benjamin Hassan

Invested

$51.95

Value

$53.55

PnL

+$1.6

Record

37%

1306-2184 (3490)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Jumpei Yamasaki

Invested

$39.92

Value

$51.15

PnL

+$11.23

Record

49%

613-640 (1253)

38791873984189

Benjamin Hassan

Invested

$243.05

Value

$30.82

PnL

+$4.77

Record

48%

3894-4243 (8137)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Jumpei Yamasaki

Invested

$27.91

Value

$29.24

PnL

+$1.33

Record

49%

4575-4833 (9408)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Jumpei Yamasaki

Invested

$24.17

Value

$26.59

PnL

+$2.42

Record

45%

90-110 (200)

BillBenter2026<$100

Benjamin Hassan

Invested

$7.95

Value

$8.05

PnL

+$0.1

Record

32%

289-614 (903)

thatsabing0<$100

Benjamin Hassan

Invested

Value

$3.95

PnL

-$0.05

Record

62%

261-158 (419)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Benjamin Hassan

Invested

$3.67

Value

$3.7

PnL

+$0.03

Record

45%

446-545 (991)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Jumpei Yamasaki

Invested

$0.56

Value

$0.51

PnL

-$0.05

Record

50%

2137-2158 (4295)

Research grade

NeutralBenjamin Hassan at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Benjamin Hassan

9 of 16 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+33 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Benjamin Hassan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Benjamin Hassan) and the top 1000 (7 on Jumpei Yamasaki) disagree here.

ctrBenjamin Hassan 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedBenjamin Hassan 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Jumpei Yamasaki 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Benjamin Hassan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.