Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Billy Harris, while the market favors Yu-Hsiou Hsu (52%). 7 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Matsuyama: Billy Harris vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu

7 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Billy Harris (44%) · Billy Harris at 49¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 22

Billy Harris49¢Yu-Hsiou Hsu51¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Billy Harris

Consensus Traders

Billy Harris 44%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$32.07

Smart Money Entry

52.7¢ → 48.5¢

-8% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralBilly Harris at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Billy Harris

7 of 16 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Yu-Hsiou Hsu 52%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Billy Harris49%

Yu-Hsiou Hsu52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Billy Harris7 traders

Total Value$952.54

Total Shares1,919

Combined PnL-$59.23

Yu-Hsiou Hsu9 traders

Total Value$606.12

Total Shares1,239

Combined PnL+$27.16

Billy Harris — 44%Yu-Hsiou Hsu — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192CTR	Billy Harrisavg 52.5¢	$770	$711.93	-$58.07	46% 18-21 (39)
RN1	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 46.6¢	$446.44	$474.29	+$27.86	54% 5793-4838 (10631)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Billy Harrisavg 52¢	$105.39	$106.4	+$1.01	40% 148-218 (366)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Billy Harrisavg 55¢	$84.87	$84.87	-$0	54% 1714-1481 (3195)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 46.4¢	$55.54	$55.64	+$0.1	48% 4388-4660 (9048)
HY hydra1248CTR<$100	Billy Harrisavg 55¢	$35.53	$34.56	-$0.97	76% 212-68 (280)
38 38791873984189<$100	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 45¢	$29.98	$29.98	+$0	48% 3662-4031 (7693)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 46.2¢	$29.01	$28.3	-$0.71	46% 577-678 (1255)
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100	Billy Harrisavg 55¢	$10	$8.82	-$1.18	47% 198-225 (423)
SE sentrio<$100	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 46¢	$6.92	$6.77	-$0.15	41% 1132-1606 (2738)
PA Pan9X<$100	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 45¢	$4.01	$4.01	-$0	50% 1931-1953 (3884)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Billy Harrisavg 54¢	$3.24	$3.21	-$0.03	31% 271-604 (875)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Billy Harrisavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.75	+$0	42% 775-1070 (1845)
1L 1lovejump<$100	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.43	+$0.02	41% 133-195 (328)
BA babybells<$100	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.38	+$0.02	32% 236-498 (734)
TH thirdt1me<$100	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.33	+$0.03	48% 331-359 (690)

0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192CTR

Billy Harris

Invested

$770

Value

$711.93

PnL

-$58.07

Record

46%

18-21 (39)

RN1

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$446.44

Value

$474.29

PnL

+$27.86

Record

54%

5793-4838 (10631)

mouzsynapseCTR

Billy Harris

Invested

$105.39

Value

$106.4

PnL

+$1.01

Record

40%

148-218 (366)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Billy Harris

Invested

$84.87

Value

$84.87

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

1714-1481 (3195)

Flaznorp<$100

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$55.54

Value

$55.64

PnL

+$0.1

Record

48%

4388-4660 (9048)

hydra1248CTR<$100

Billy Harris

Invested

$35.53

Value

$34.56

PnL

-$0.97

Record

76%

212-68 (280)

38791873984189<$100

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$29.98

Value

$29.98

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

3662-4031 (7693)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$29.01

Value

$28.3

PnL

-$0.71

Record

46%

577-678 (1255)

glennyorkshireCTR<$100

Billy Harris

Invested

$10

Value

$8.82

PnL

-$1.18

Record

47%

198-225 (423)

sentrio<$100

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$6.92

Value

$6.77

PnL

-$0.15

Record

41%

1132-1606 (2738)

Pan9X<$100

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$4.01

Value

$4.01

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

1931-1953 (3884)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Billy Harris

Invested

$3.24

Value

$3.21

PnL

-$0.03

Record

31%

271-604 (875)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Billy Harris

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.75

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

775-1070 (1845)

1lovejump<$100

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.43

PnL

+$0.02

Record

41%

133-195 (328)

babybells<$100

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.38

PnL

+$0.02

Record

32%

236-498 (734)

thirdt1me<$100

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.33

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

331-359 (690)

Research grade

NeutralBilly Harris at 49%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Billy Harris

7 of 16 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Yu-Hsiou Hsu 52%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Billy Harris wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.