Rolex Paris Masters: Quentin Halys vs Frances Tiafoe

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Frances Tiafoe (33%) · Frances Tiafoe at 59¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 11

Quentin Halys42¢Frances Tiafoe58¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Frances Tiafoe

Consensus Traders

Frances Tiafoe 33%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$0.19

Smart Money Entry

58.9¢ → 58.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralFrances Tiafoe at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Frances Tiafoe

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Quentin Halys42%

Frances Tiafoe59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Quentin Halys8 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,905

Combined PnL+$8.7

Frances Tiafoe4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,723

Combined PnL-$8.51

Quentin Halys — 67%Frances Tiafoe — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Frances Tiafoe. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleQuentin Halys 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpFrances Tiafoe 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrQuentin Halys 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Quentin Halys 67% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Quentin Halysavg 41¢	$982.37	$994.35	+$11.98	46% 409-484 (893)
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Frances Tiafoeavg 58¢	$744.33	$750.75	+$6.42	67% 3649-1815 (5464)
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3	Frances Tiafoeavg 59.2¢	$541.75	$535.61	-$6.14	45% 414-502 (916)
0X 0x0dae0fd966005cd3eb2e8e9b901f24fca34a72fe	Frances Tiafoeavg 60.8¢	$311.25	$302.24	-$9.02	51% 217-209 (426)
GC GC-PCTR	Quentin Halysavg 40¢	$173.86	$179.41	+$5.55	47% 1322-1513 (2835)
NM NM-PCTR	Quentin Halysavg 40¢	$152.82	$156.64	+$3.82	46% 1298-1515 (2813)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Quentin Halysavg 43.2¢	$141.32	$134.07	-$7.25	53% 1098-984 (2082)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Quentin Halysavg 41¢	$69.43	$69.87	+$0.44	51% 23811-22567 (46378)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Quentin Halysavg 45.2¢	$55.14	$49.98	-$5.16	50% 20420-20739 (41159)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Quentin Halysavg 40.5¢	$40.5	$41	+$0	54% 6099-5108 (11207)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Quentin Halysavg 42.2¢	$23.89	$23.22	-$0.68	61% 13990-9022 (23012)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Frances Tiafoeavg 56¢	$6.36	$6.59	+$0.23	74% 2402-842 (3244)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Quentin Halys

Invested

$982.37

Value

$994.35

PnL

+$11.98

Record

46%

409-484 (893)

JAMJAMJAM4

Frances Tiafoe

Invested

$744.33

Value

$750.75

PnL

+$6.42

Record

67%

3649-1815 (5464)

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3

Frances Tiafoe

Invested

$541.75

Value

$535.61

PnL

-$6.14

Record

45%

414-502 (916)

0x0dae0fd966005cd3eb2e8e9b901f24fca34a72fe

Frances Tiafoe

Invested

$311.25

Value

$302.24

PnL

-$9.02

Record

51%

217-209 (426)

GC-PCTR

Quentin Halys

Invested

$173.86

Value

$179.41

PnL

+$5.55

Record

47%

1322-1513 (2835)

NM-PCTR

Quentin Halys

Invested

$152.82

Value

$156.64

PnL

+$3.82

Record

46%

1298-1515 (2813)

LightParadoxCTR

Quentin Halys

Invested

$141.32

Value

$134.07

PnL

-$7.25

Record

53%

1098-984 (2082)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Quentin Halys

Invested

$69.43

Value

$69.87

PnL

+$0.44

Record

51%

23811-22567 (46378)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Quentin Halys

Invested

$55.14

Value

$49.98

PnL

-$5.16

Record

50%

20420-20739 (41159)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Quentin Halys

Invested

$40.5

Value

$41

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

6099-5108 (11207)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Quentin Halys

Invested

$23.89

Value

$23.22

PnL

-$0.68

Record

61%

13990-9022 (23012)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Frances Tiafoe

Invested

$6.36

Value

$6.59

PnL

+$0.23

Record

74%

2402-842 (3244)

Research grade

NeutralFrances Tiafoe at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Frances Tiafoe

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Frances Tiafoe. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleQuentin Halys 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpFrances Tiafoe 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrQuentin Halys 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Quentin Halys 67% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Frances Tiafoe wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.