Orleans: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg vs Otto Virtanen

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Otto Virtanen (13%) · Otto Virtanen at 65¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 20

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg36¢Otto Virtanen64¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Otto Virtanen

Consensus Traders

Otto Virtanen 13%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

-$103.98

Research grade

NeutralOtto Virtanen at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Otto Virtanen

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg36%

Otto Virtanen65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Otto Virtanen1 trader

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares5,229

Combined PnL-$124.01

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,338

Combined PnL+$20.04

Otto Virtanen — 13%Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Otto Virtanen. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSascha Gueymard-Wayenburg 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
00 0000.	Otto Virtanenavg 65.4¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$124.01	34% 13-25 (38)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 35.7¢	$297.97	$295.96	-$2.01	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 34¢	$278.14	$290.41	+$12.27	59% 482-333 (815)
0xheavy888CTR	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 35¢	$262.27	$266.06	+$3.79	53% 388-339 (727)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 34.4¢	$223.84	$230.75	+$6.91	47% 189-212 (401)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 35.4¢	$80.82	$80.94	+$0.12	56% 307-245 (552)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 38.6¢	$15.18	$13.97	-$1.21	43% 808-1065 (1873)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 35¢	$11.55	$11.72	+$0.16	49% 1306-1355 (2661)

0000.

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$3,418

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$124.01

Record

34%

13-25 (38)

FlaznorpCTR

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$297.97

Value

$295.96

PnL

-$2.01

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$278.14

Value

$290.41

PnL

+$12.27

Record

59%

482-333 (815)

0xheavy888CTR

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$262.27

Value

$266.06

PnL

+$3.79

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$223.84

Value

$230.75

PnL

+$6.91

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$80.82

Value

$80.94

PnL

+$0.12

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

sentrioCTR<$100

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$15.18

Value

$13.97

PnL

-$1.21

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$11.55

Value

$11.72

PnL

+$0.16

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

Research grade

NeutralOtto Virtanen at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Otto Virtanen

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Otto Virtanen. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSascha Gueymard-Wayenburg 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Otto Virtanen wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.