Bratislava 2: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg vs Zsombor Piros

17 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Zsombor Piros (89%) · Zsombor Piros at 100¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 11

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg<1¢Zsombor Piros>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Zsombor Piros

Consensus Traders

Zsombor Piros 89%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.9K

Combined PnL

$790.51

Smart Money Entry

81¢ → 100¢

+23% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralZsombor Piros at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Zsombor Piros

17 of 19 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg0%

Zsombor Piros100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Zsombor Piros17 traders

Total Value$16.7K

Total Shares18,211

Combined PnL+$796.48

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg2 traders

Total Value$17.52

Total Shares1,025

Combined PnL-$5.97

Zsombor Piros — 89%Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA Paul973973	Zsombor Pirosavg 94.4¢	$3.5K	$3.7K	+$151.49	89% 990-125 (1115)
MA MadridTime	Zsombor Pirosavg 74.1¢	$2.7K	$2.9K	+$122.94	51% 1093-1042 (2135)
LI Limousin	Zsombor Pirosavg 77.4¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$268.75	54% 1189-1028 (2217)
FL Flaznorp	Zsombor Pirosavg 80.2¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$40.32	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
LI LightParadox	Zsombor Pirosavg 85.1¢	$2.3K	$2.1K	-$200.01	52% 1146-1041 (2187)
38 38791873984189	Zsombor Pirosavg 70.4¢	$2.1K	$1.0K	+$408.6	48% 59237-63255 (122492)
TRCM	Zsombor Pirosavg 97.5¢	$884.77	$761.9	-$122.88	55% 4028-3248 (7276)
VE Venusian	Zsombor Pirosavg 60.1¢	$576.59	$632.7	+$56.1	52% 1158-1077 (2235)
RN1	Zsombor Pirosavg 71¢	$301.1	$295.5	-$5.59	53% 60059-52427 (112486)
EU Eulhunter	Zsombor Pirosavg 69.7¢	$234.08	$293.8	+$59.73	54% 6178-5224 (11402)
tradecraft	Zsombor Pirosavg 66.1¢	$163.36	$169.2	+$5.84	51% 6277-6028 (12305)
LI LilybaeumARB<$100	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 48.2¢	$145.52	$148.82	+$3.31	61% 14035-9040 (23075)
└ Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg leg	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 48.2¢	$112.25	$115.22	+$2.97
└ Zsombor Piros leg	Zsombor Pirosavg 50¢	$33.27	$33.6	+$0.33
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Zsombor Pirosavg 74.5¢	$164.39	$148.78	-$15.61	52% 14224-12997 (27221)
CI cigarettes<$100	Zsombor Pirosavg 83.5¢	$83.5	$99.95	+$16.45	53% 22623-19873 (42496)
1L 1lovejump	Zsombor Pirosavg 77.9¢	$380.95	$87.15	+$13.23	52% 736-673 (1409)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Zsombor Pirosavg 76.3¢	$45.78	$54.3	+$8.52	57% 19072-14109 (33181)
ES esticamosCTR<$100	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 2.1¢	$21.43	$15.31	-$6.12	51% 184-176 (360)
PA pauleta23<$100	Zsombor Pirosavg 83.7¢	$10.09	$9.94	-$0.15	66% 23988-12172 (36160)
FL flatbarrel	Zsombor Pirosavg 82.2¢	$333.1	$3.65	-$11.25	58% 2791-1998 (4789)
poshposhCTR<$100	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 47¢	$2.06	$2.21	+$0.15	57% 12266-9326 (21592)

Paul973973

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$3,510.07

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$151.49

Record

89%

990-125 (1115)

MadridTime

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$2,739.06

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$122.94

Record

51%

1093-1042 (2135)

Limousin

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$2,068.46

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$268.75

Record

54%

1189-1028 (2217)

Flaznorp

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$2,126.97

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$40.32

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

LightParadox

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$2,301.34

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$200.01

Record

52%

1146-1041 (2187)

38791873984189

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$2,142.29

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$408.6

Record

48%

59237-63255 (122492)

TRCM

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$884.77

Value

$761.9

PnL

-$122.88

Record

55%

4028-3248 (7276)

Venusian

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$576.59

Value

$632.7

PnL

+$56.1

Record

52%

1158-1077 (2235)

RN1

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$301.1

Value

$295.5

PnL

-$5.59

Record

53%

60059-52427 (112486)

Eulhunter

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$234.08

Value

$293.8

PnL

+$59.73

Record

54%

6178-5224 (11402)

tradecraft

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$163.36

Value

$169.2

PnL

+$5.84

Record

51%

6277-6028 (12305)

LilybaeumARB<$100

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$145.52

Value

$148.82

PnL

+$3.31

Record

61%

14035-9040 (23075)

Both legs:

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$112.2548.2¢+$2.97

Zsombor Piros$33.2750¢+$0.33

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$164.39

Value

$148.78

PnL

-$15.61

Record

52%

14224-12997 (27221)

cigarettes<$100

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$83.5

Value

$99.95

PnL

+$16.45

Record

53%

22623-19873 (42496)

1lovejump

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$380.95

Value

$87.15

PnL

+$13.23

Record

52%

736-673 (1409)

BillBenter2026<$100

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$45.78

Value

$54.3

PnL

+$8.52

Record

57%

19072-14109 (33181)

esticamosCTR<$100

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$21.43

Value

$15.31

PnL

-$6.12

Record

51%

184-176 (360)

pauleta23<$100

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$10.09

Value

$9.94

PnL

-$0.15

Record

66%

23988-12172 (36160)

flatbarrel

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$333.1

Value

$3.65

PnL

-$11.25

Record

58%

2791-1998 (4789)

poshposhCTR<$100

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$2.06

Value

$2.21

PnL

+$0.15

Record

57%

12266-9326 (21592)

Research grade

NeutralZsombor Piros at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Zsombor Piros

17 of 19 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Zsombor Piros wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.