Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Hugo Grenier, while the market favors Kyrian Jacquet (81%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Orleans: Hugo Grenier vs Kyrian Jacquet
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Hugo Grenier (75%) · Hugo Grenier at 20¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
Hugo Grenier
4
Hugo Grenier 75%
2 arb excluded
$1.3K
$29.86
19.3¢ → 19.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidHugo Grenier at 20%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Kyrian Jacquet 81%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Hugo Grenier. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Hugo Grenieravg 19.6¢ | $537.34 | $435.98 | +$1.42 | 49% 235-240 (475) |
 RN1CTR | Hugo Grenieravg 19¢ | $351.99 | $379.78 | +$27.79 | 58% 3761-2714 (6475) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Kyrian Jacquetavg 78¢ | $359.46 | $367.07 | +$7.61 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
| └ Kyrian Jacquet leg | Kyrian Jacquetavg 78¢ | $239.46 | $244.07 | +$4.61 | |
| └ Hugo Grenier leg | Hugo Grenieravg 20¢ | $120 | $123 | +$3 | |
 0xheavy888ARB<$100 | Hugo Grenieravg 19¢ | $66.84 | $70.02 | +$3.18 | 56% 108-86 (194) |
| └ Hugo Grenier leg | Hugo Grenieravg 19¢ | $38 | $41 | +$3 | |
| └ Kyrian Jacquet leg | Kyrian Jacquetavg 79¢ | $28.84 | $29.02 | +$0.18 | |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Kyrian Jacquetavg 77¢ | $9.93 | $10.39 | +$0.46 | 37% 198-333 (531) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Hugo Grenieravg 20¢ | $7.4 | $7.59 | +$0.18 | 48% 424-451 (875) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$537.34
Value
$435.98
PnL
+$1.42
Record
49%
235-240 (475)
RN1CTRInvested
$351.99
Value
$379.78
PnL
+$27.79
Record
58%
3761-2714 (6475)
Invested
$359.46
Value
$367.07
PnL
+$7.61
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Both legs:
0xheavy888ARB<$100Invested
$66.84
Value
$70.02
PnL
+$3.18
Record
56%
108-86 (194)
Both legs:
Invested
$9.93
Value
$10.39
PnL
+$0.46
Record
37%
198-333 (531)
Invested
$7.4
Value
$7.59
PnL
+$0.18
Record
48%
424-451 (875)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
19.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.