Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Alastair Gray, while the market favors Darwin Blanch (71%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Knoxville: Alastair Gray vs Darwin Blanch

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Alastair Gray (75%) · Alastair Gray at 30¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16

Alastair Gray30¢Darwin Blanch70¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Alastair Gray

Consensus Traders

Alastair Gray 75%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$12.43

Smart Money Entry

29¢ → 29.5¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidAlastair Gray at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alastair Gray

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Darwin Blanch 71%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Alastair Gray30%

Darwin Blanch71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alastair Gray6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,995

Combined PnL+$3.79

Darwin Blanch2 traders

Total Value$618.05

Total Shares896

Combined PnL+$8.65

Alastair Gray — 75%Darwin Blanch — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LimousinCTR	Alastair Grayavg 29¢	$680.4	$692.14	+$11.73	24% 207-650 (857)
OM omnibus-076daa	Darwin Blanchavg 68¢	$608.35	$616.97	+$8.62	35% 177-324 (501)
VeryLucky888CTR	Alastair Grayavg 29¢	$377.78	$371.29	-$6.49	48% 223-237 (460)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Alastair Grayavg 29¢	$87.94	$86.4	-$1.54	56% 105-82 (187)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Alastair Grayavg 29¢	$9.57	$9.41	-$0.17	48% 414-448 (862)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Alastair Grayavg 30¢	$1.5	$1.68	+$0.18	25% 210-646 (856)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Alastair Grayavg 32¢	$1.6	$1.68	+$0.07	23% 150-497 (647)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Darwin Blanchavg 69¢	$1.06	$1.08	+$0.02	50% 1393-1407 (2800)

LimousinCTR

Alastair Gray

Invested

$680.4

Value

$692.14

PnL

+$11.73

Record

24%

207-650 (857)

omnibus-076daa

Darwin Blanch

Invested

$608.35

Value

$616.97

PnL

+$8.62

Record

35%

177-324 (501)

VeryLucky888CTR

Alastair Gray

Invested

$377.78

Value

$371.29

PnL

-$6.49

Record

48%

223-237 (460)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Alastair Gray

Invested

$87.94

Value

$86.4

PnL

-$1.54

Record

56%

105-82 (187)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Alastair Gray

Invested

$9.57

Value

$9.41

PnL

-$0.17

Record

48%

414-448 (862)

VenusianCTR<$100

Alastair Gray

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.68

PnL

+$0.18

Record

25%

210-646 (856)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Alastair Gray

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.68

PnL

+$0.07

Record

23%

150-497 (647)

Flaznorp<$100

Darwin Blanch

Invested

$1.06

Value

$1.08

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

1393-1407 (2800)

Research grade

AvoidAlastair Gray at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Alastair Gray

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Darwin Blanch 71%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alastair Gray wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.6%

29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$216.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

316.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.