Brisbane 3: Sebastian Gorzny vs August Holmgren

15 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Sebastian Gorzny (68%) · Sebastian Gorzny at 55¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 21

Sebastian Gorzny55¢August Holmgren45¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sebastian Gorzny

Consensus Traders

Sebastian Gorzny 68%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$197.14

Smart Money Entry

48.9¢ → 54.5¢

+11% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralSebastian Gorzny at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sebastian Gorzny

15 of 22 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Sebastian Gorzny55%

August Holmgren46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sebastian Gorzny15 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares6,209

Combined PnL+$235.25

August Holmgren7 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,636

Combined PnL-$38.11

Sebastian Gorzny — 68%August Holmgren — 32%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

91% of non-arb traders are on Sebastian Gorzny. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSebastian Gorzny 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedSebastian Gorzny 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sebastian Gorzny 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thestingsnake	Sebastian Gorznyavg 50.5¢	$973.46	$922.58	+$76.67	33% 211-429 (640)
FL Flaznorp	Sebastian Gorznyavg 49.4¢	$629.92	$694.34	+$64.42	50% 3526-3585 (7111)
TH thirdt1meCTR	August Holmgrenavg 50.2¢	$646.96	$599.36	-$47.6	48% 243-263 (506)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Sebastian Gorznyavg 47¢	$445.92	$517.08	+$71.16	51% 2364-2297 (4661)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Sebastian Gorznyavg 50.2¢	$487.83	$501.48	+$13.65	56% 4015-3133 (7148)
└ Sebastian Gorzny leg	Sebastian Gorznyavg 50.2¢	$284.52	$303.38	+$18.86
└ August Holmgren leg	August Holmgrenavg 47.7¢	$203.31	$198.1	-$5.21
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Sebastian Gorznyavg 48¢	$407.8	$416.56	+$8.76	48% 269-290 (559)
38 38791873984189CTR	August Holmgrenavg 51¢	$327.47	$330.7	+$3.23	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
0xheavy888	Sebastian Gorznyavg 49¢	$318.63	$318.63	-$0	54% 437-367 (804)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	August Holmgrenavg 50¢	$139.48	$142.27	+$2.79	44% 75-94 (169)
VeryLucky888	Sebastian Gorznyavg 48¢	$100.57	$102.67	+$2.1	53% 1179-1029 (2208)
LI Limousin<$100	Sebastian Gorznyavg 47¢	$87.37	$91.09	+$3.72	36% 879-1566 (2445)
1L 1lovejumpCTR<$100	August Holmgrenavg 52.9¢	$81.25	$82.2	+$0.95	39% 120-191 (311)
EF efntrick<$100	Sebastian Gorznyavg 48¢	$76.8	$78.4	+$1.6	45% 82-102 (184)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	August Holmgrenavg 53¢	$75.3	$76.01	+$0.71	50% 3678-3623 (7301)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Sebastian Gorznyavg 46.3¢	$49.13	$52.04	+$2.92	56% 426-340 (766)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Sebastian Gorznyavg 48¢	$48	$48.5	+$0.5	44% 343-444 (787)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	August Holmgrenavg 47¢	$42.94	$44.43	+$1.49	30% 196-463 (659)
PA Pan9X<$100	Sebastian Gorznyavg 48.6¢	$47.01	$39.79	+$0.58	49% 1329-1376 (2705)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	August Holmgrenavg 50¢	$32.78	$33.1	+$0.33	48% 462-493 (955)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Sebastian Gorznyavg 50¢	$22.55	$24.58	+$2.03	40% 144-212 (356)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Sebastian Gorznyavg 51.2¢	$10.25	$10.9	+$0.65	28% 225-567 (792)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Sebastian Gorznyavg 50¢	$10	$10.1	+$0.1	45% 151-185 (336)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Sebastian Gorznyavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.45	+$0.05	40% 609-910 (1519)

thestingsnake

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$973.46

Value

$922.58

PnL

+$76.67

Record

33%

211-429 (640)

Flaznorp

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$629.92

Value

$694.34

PnL

+$64.42

Record

50%

3526-3585 (7111)

thirdt1meCTR

August Holmgren

Invested

$646.96

Value

$599.36

PnL

-$47.6

Record

48%

243-263 (506)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$445.92

Value

$517.08

PnL

+$71.16

Record

51%

2364-2297 (4661)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$487.83

Value

$501.48

PnL

+$13.65

Record

56%

4015-3133 (7148)

Both legs:

Sebastian Gorzny$284.5250.2¢+$18.86

August Holmgren$203.3147.7¢-$5.21

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$407.8

Value

$416.56

PnL

+$8.76

Record

48%

269-290 (559)

38791873984189CTR

August Holmgren

Invested

$327.47

Value

$330.7

PnL

+$3.23

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

0xheavy888

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$318.63

Value

$318.63

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

437-367 (804)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

August Holmgren

Invested

$139.48

Value

$142.27

PnL

+$2.79

Record

44%

75-94 (169)

VeryLucky888

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$100.57

Value

$102.67

PnL

+$2.1

Record

53%

1179-1029 (2208)

Limousin<$100

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$87.37

Value

$91.09

PnL

+$3.72

Record

36%

879-1566 (2445)

1lovejumpCTR<$100

August Holmgren

Invested

$81.25

Value

$82.2

PnL

+$0.95

Record

39%

120-191 (311)

efntrick<$100

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$76.8

Value

$78.4

PnL

+$1.6

Record

45%

82-102 (184)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

August Holmgren

Invested

$75.3

Value

$76.01

PnL

+$0.71

Record

50%

3678-3623 (7301)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$49.13

Value

$52.04

PnL

+$2.92

Record

56%

426-340 (766)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$48

Value

$48.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

44%

343-444 (787)

babybellsCTR<$100

August Holmgren

Invested

$42.94

Value

$44.43

PnL

+$1.49

Record

30%

196-463 (659)

Pan9X<$100

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$47.01

Value

$39.79

PnL

+$0.58

Record

49%

1329-1376 (2705)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

August Holmgren

Invested

$32.78

Value

$33.1

PnL

+$0.33

Record

48%

462-493 (955)

NatoAlfista<$100

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$22.55

Value

$24.58

PnL

+$2.03

Record

40%

144-212 (356)

BillBenter2026<$100

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$10.25

Value

$10.9

PnL

+$0.65

Record

28%

225-567 (792)

glennyorkshire<$100

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$10

Value

$10.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

45%

151-185 (336)

ameisgoat11<$100

Sebastian Gorzny

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0.05

Record

40%

609-910 (1519)

Research grade

NeutralSebastian Gorzny at 55%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Sebastian Gorzny

15 of 22 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

91% of non-arb traders are on Sebastian Gorzny. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSebastian Gorzny 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedSebastian Gorzny 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sebastian Gorzny 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sebastian Gorzny wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.