Drummondville: Vignesh Gogineni vs Volodymyr Gurenko

9 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Vignesh Gogineni (45%) · Vignesh Gogineni at 89¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 22

Vignesh Gogineni89¢Volodymyr Gurenko11¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vignesh Gogineni

Consensus Traders

Vignesh Gogineni 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$51.03

Smart Money Entry

86.4¢ → 89.4¢

+4% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralVignesh Gogineni at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vignesh Gogineni

9 of 20 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Vignesh Gogineni89%

Volodymyr Gurenko11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Volodymyr Gurenko11 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,237

Combined PnL-$8.84

Vignesh Gogineni9 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,800

Combined PnL+$59.87

Volodymyr Gurenko — 55%Vignesh Gogineni — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpCTR	Volodymyr Gurenkoavg 49.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0.24	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
LI LightParadox	Vignesh Gogineniavg 87.6¢	$498.23	$508.24	+$10.01	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
TH thestingsnake	Vignesh Gogineniavg 85.1¢	$429.9	$382.29	+$25.79	37% 270-460 (730)
VE Venusian	Vignesh Gogineniavg 84¢	$279.72	$299.53	+$19.81	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Volodymyr Gurenkoavg 11¢	$211.61	$203.38	-$8.23	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
BA babybells	Vignesh Gogineniavg 88¢	$196.16	$199.09	+$2.93	35% 282-533 (815)
OM omnibus-076daa	Vignesh Gogineniavg 85.8¢	$111.6	$111.09	-$0.52	47% 676-773 (1449)
LI Limousin<$100	Vignesh Gogineniavg 89.2¢	$59.37	$59.1	+$2.41	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
TH thirdt1meARB<$100	Volodymyr Gurenkoavg 20.5¢	$123.38	$51.68	-$49.7	47% 383-426 (809)
└ Vignesh Gogineni leg	Vignesh Gogineniavg 88¢	$27.35	$28.39	+$1.04
└ Volodymyr Gurenko leg	Volodymyr Gurenkoavg 20.5¢	$55.1	$23.29	-$50.74
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Vignesh Gogineniavg 89.2¢	$49.97	$50.06	+$0.09	33% 312-626 (938)
CA CandleHammerDrums<$100	Vignesh Gogineniavg 89¢	$17.6	$16.99	-$0.61	48% 651-710 (1361)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Volodymyr Gurenkoavg 9¢	$14.71	$13.89	-$0.82	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
TRCMCTR<$100	Volodymyr Gurenkoavg 9.3¢	$11.1	$7.86	-$3.24	18% 102-466 (568)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Vignesh Gogineniavg 78¢	$3.95	$3.9	-$0.05	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
SC SchruteBucksCTR<$100	Volodymyr Gurenkoavg 10¢	$30	$1.56	+$0.23	29% 208-521 (729)
FL flatbarrelCTR<$100	Volodymyr Gurenkoavg 10¢	$28.36	$1.47	+$2.9	14% 62-392 (454)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Volodymyr Gurenkoavg 3.3¢	$1	$1.01	+$0.01	49% 2896-2959 (5855)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Volodymyr Gurenkoavg 18¢	$0.44	$0.45	+$0.01	46% 499-597 (1096)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Volodymyr Gurenkoavg 6¢	$0.3	$0.33	+$0.03	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Volodymyr Gurenkoavg 6¢	$0.19	$0.21	+$0.02	44% 95-122 (217)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Volodymyr Gurenkoavg 3.2¢	$0.16	$0.18	+$0.02	53% 7602-6693 (14295)

NotJumpCTR

Volodymyr Gurenko

Invested

$1,050.51

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0.24

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

LightParadox

Vignesh Gogineni

Invested

$498.23

Value

$508.24

PnL

+$10.01

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

thestingsnake

Vignesh Gogineni

Invested

$429.9

Value

$382.29

PnL

+$25.79

Record

37%

270-460 (730)

Venusian

Vignesh Gogineni

Invested

$279.72

Value

$299.53

PnL

+$19.81

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

FlaznorpCTR

Volodymyr Gurenko

Invested

$211.61

Value

$203.38

PnL

-$8.23

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

babybells

Vignesh Gogineni

Invested

$196.16

Value

$199.09

PnL

+$2.93

Record

35%

282-533 (815)

omnibus-076daa

Vignesh Gogineni

Invested

$111.6

Value

$111.09

PnL

-$0.52

Record

47%

676-773 (1449)

Limousin<$100

Vignesh Gogineni

Invested

$59.37

Value

$59.1

PnL

+$2.41

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

thirdt1meARB<$100

Volodymyr Gurenko

Invested

$123.38

Value

$51.68

PnL

-$49.7

Record

47%

383-426 (809)

Both legs:

Vignesh Gogineni$27.3588¢+$1.04

Volodymyr Gurenko$55.120.5¢-$50.74

BillBenter2026<$100

Vignesh Gogineni

Invested

$49.97

Value

$50.06

PnL

+$0.09

Record

33%

312-626 (938)

CandleHammerDrums<$100

Vignesh Gogineni

Invested

$17.6

Value

$16.99

PnL

-$0.61

Record

48%

651-710 (1361)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Volodymyr Gurenko

Invested

$14.71

Value

$13.89

PnL

-$0.82

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

TRCMCTR<$100

Volodymyr Gurenko

Invested

$11.1

Value

$7.86

PnL

-$3.24

Record

18%

102-466 (568)

ferdinand2<$100

Vignesh Gogineni

Invested

$3.95

Value

$3.9

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

SchruteBucksCTR<$100

Volodymyr Gurenko

Invested

$30

Value

$1.56

PnL

+$0.23

Record

29%

208-521 (729)

flatbarrelCTR<$100

Volodymyr Gurenko

Invested

$28.36

Value

$1.47

PnL

+$2.9

Record

14%

62-392 (454)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Volodymyr Gurenko

Invested

Value

$1.01

PnL

+$0.01

Record

49%

2896-2959 (5855)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Volodymyr Gurenko

Invested

$0.44

Value

$0.45

PnL

+$0.01

Record

46%

499-597 (1096)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Volodymyr Gurenko

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.33

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Volodymyr Gurenko

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.21

PnL

+$0.02

Record

44%

95-122 (217)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Volodymyr Gurenko

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.18

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

7602-6693 (14295)

Research grade

NeutralVignesh Gogineni at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Vignesh Gogineni

9 of 20 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vignesh Gogineni wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.8%

89.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.