Hersonissos 3: Massimo Giunta vs Francesco Forti

17 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Massimo Giunta (77%) · Massimo Giunta at 96¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 16

Massimo Giunta96¢Francesco Forti4¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Massimo Giunta

Consensus Traders

Massimo Giunta 77%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.1K

Combined PnL

$1.9K

Smart Money Entry

81.8¢ → 95.5¢

+17% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralMassimo Giunta at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Massimo Giunta

17 of 22 top traders (77%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Massimo Giunta96%

Francesco Forti5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Massimo Giunta17 traders

Total Value$20.8K

Total Shares22,714

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Francesco Forti5 traders

Total Value$194.56

Total Shares457

Combined PnL-$81.64

Massimo Giunta — 77%Francesco Forti — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Massimo Giunta. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Massimo Giunta) and the top 1000 (5 on Francesco Forti) disagree here.

whaleMassimo Giunta 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMassimo Giunta 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedMassimo Giunta 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Francesco Forti 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Massimo Giuntaavg 97.1¢	$10.0K	$9.9K	-$168.94	45% 2673-3235 (5908)
65 6512395314597884	Massimo Giuntaavg 65.4¢	$2.5K	$3.4K	+$930.62	51% 6099-5856 (11955)
RN1	Massimo Giuntaavg 79¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$296.94	53% 72012-63509 (135521)
VE Venusian	Massimo Giuntaavg 85.6¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$173.25	45% 2738-3312 (6050)
38 38791873984189	Massimo Giuntaavg 62¢	$700.7	$983.65	+$357.95	48% 72152-77872 (150024)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Massimo Giuntaavg 76.9¢	$769.12	$755	-$14.12	51% 2350-2286 (4636)
TH thirdt1me	Massimo Giuntaavg 71.4¢	$651.74	$730.89	+$191.64	57% 224-169 (393)
FE ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100	Francesco Fortiavg 5¢	$675.35	$595.76	-$79.59	46% 33770-39445 (73215)
└ Francesco Forti leg	Francesco Fortiavg 5¢	$559.61	$388.94	-$170.68
└ Massimo Giunta leg	Massimo Giuntaavg 54¢	$115.74	$206.82	+$91.09
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Massimo Giuntaavg 69.1¢	$430.99	$511.97	+$80.98	52% 49472-46424 (95896)
└ Massimo Giunta leg	Massimo Giuntaavg 69.1¢	$257.4	$355.74	+$98.34
└ Francesco Forti leg	Francesco Fortiavg 5¢	$173.59	$156.23	-$17.36
0xheavy888	Massimo Giuntaavg 54.2¢	$485.54	$479.49	-$6.05	56% 9019-7114 (16133)
VeryLucky888	Massimo Giuntaavg 46¢	$368	$444	+$76	58% 53770-38280 (92050)
TH thestingsnake	Massimo Giuntaavg 67.1¢	$403.07	$397.71	+$77.78	60% 4654-3141 (7795)
SE sentrio	Massimo Giuntaavg 79¢	$304.97	$376.39	+$71.42	51% 28817-28169 (56986)
1L 1lovejump	Massimo Giuntaavg 66.2¢	$257.46	$152.24	-$26.53	53% 860-756 (1616)
LI LimousinCTR	Francesco Fortiavg 47.2¢	$108.11	$105.27	-$1.14	46% 2762-3197 (5959)
machinelearnedCTR	Francesco Fortiavg 47.8¢	$109.21	$82.28	-$26.94	54% 10539-8942 (19481)
EF efntrick<$100	Massimo Giuntaavg 54¢	$64.8	$64.8	+$0.6	49% 3734-3959 (7693)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Massimo Giuntaavg 55¢	$22.17	$32.1	+$9.92	53% 15728-13882 (29610)
LI LightParadox<$100	Massimo Giuntaavg 95.2¢	$16.19	$16.24	+$0.04	45% 2662-3199 (5861)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Massimo Giuntaavg 58¢	$5.8	$5.55	-$0.25	53% 14833-13045 (27878)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Massimo Giuntaavg 54¢	$4.32	$4.44	+$0.12	57% 20332-15125 (35457)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Francesco Fortiavg 35.4¢	$26.74	$3.39	-$23.34	52% 6198-5720 (11918)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Francesco Fortiavg 47¢	$3.76	$2.2	-$1.56	51% 6915-6568 (13483)
SC SchruteBucksCTR	Francesco Fortiavg 45.1¢	$225.69	$1.42	-$28.66	56% 1993-1542 (3535)

MadridTime

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$10,026.91

Value

$9.9K

PnL

-$168.94

Record

45%

2673-3235 (5908)

6512395314597884

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$2,452.66

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$930.62

Record

51%

6099-5856 (11955)

RN1

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$1,421.7

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$296.94

Record

53%

72012-63509 (135521)

Venusian

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$1,256.03

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$173.25

Record

45%

2738-3312 (6050)

38791873984189

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$700.7

Value

$983.65

PnL

+$357.95

Record

48%

72152-77872 (150024)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$769.12

Value

$755

PnL

-$14.12

Record

51%

2350-2286 (4636)

thirdt1me

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$651.74

Value

$730.89

PnL

+$191.64

Record

57%

224-169 (393)

ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100

Francesco Forti

Invested

$675.35

Value

$595.76

PnL

-$79.59

Record

46%

33770-39445 (73215)

Both legs:

Francesco Forti$559.615¢-$170.68

Massimo Giunta$115.7454¢+$91.09

FlaznorpARB<$100

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$430.99

Value

$511.97

PnL

+$80.98

Record

52%

49472-46424 (95896)

Both legs:

Massimo Giunta$257.469.1¢+$98.34

Francesco Forti$173.595¢-$17.36

0xheavy888

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$485.54

Value

$479.49

PnL

-$6.05

Record

56%

9019-7114 (16133)

VeryLucky888

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$368

Value

$444

PnL

+$76

Record

58%

53770-38280 (92050)

thestingsnake

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$403.07

Value

$397.71

PnL

+$77.78

Record

60%

4654-3141 (7795)

sentrio

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$304.97

Value

$376.39

PnL

+$71.42

Record

51%

28817-28169 (56986)

1lovejump

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$257.46

Value

$152.24

PnL

-$26.53

Record

53%

860-756 (1616)

LimousinCTR

Francesco Forti

Invested

$108.11

Value

$105.27

PnL

-$1.14

Record

46%

2762-3197 (5959)

machinelearnedCTR

Francesco Forti

Invested

$109.21

Value

$82.28

PnL

-$26.94

Record

54%

10539-8942 (19481)

efntrick<$100

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$64.8

Value

$64.8

PnL

+$0.6

Record

49%

3734-3959 (7693)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$22.17

Value

$32.1

PnL

+$9.92

Record

53%

15728-13882 (29610)

LightParadox<$100

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$16.19

Value

$16.24

PnL

+$0.04

Record

45%

2662-3199 (5861)

ameisgoat11<$100

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$5.8

Value

$5.55

PnL

-$0.25

Record

53%

14833-13045 (27878)

BillBenter2026<$100

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$4.32

Value

$4.44

PnL

+$0.12

Record

57%

20332-15125 (35457)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Francesco Forti

Invested

$26.74

Value

$3.39

PnL

-$23.34

Record

52%

6198-5720 (11918)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Francesco Forti

Invested

$3.76

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$1.56

Record

51%

6915-6568 (13483)

SchruteBucksCTR

Francesco Forti

Invested

$225.69

Value

$1.42

PnL

-$28.66

Record

56%

1993-1542 (3535)

Research grade

NeutralMassimo Giunta at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Massimo Giunta

17 of 22 top traders (77%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Massimo Giunta. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Massimo Giunta) and the top 1000 (5 on Francesco Forti) disagree here.

whaleMassimo Giunta 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMassimo Giunta 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedMassimo Giunta 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Francesco Forti 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Massimo Giunta wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.