Charlottesville: Marcos Giron vs Clement Chidekh
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Clement Chidekh (100%) · Clement Chidekh at 62¢ · $601 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Clement Chidekh
5
Clement Chidekh 100%
$601.2
$4.44
61.4¢ → 61.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralClement Chidekh at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Clement Chidekh. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Clement Chidekhavg 61.5¢ | $453.86 | $453.98 | +$0.13 | 56% 8102-6427 (14529) |
FL Flaznorp | Clement Chidekhavg 61¢ | $118.09 | $120.03 | +$3.87 | 51% 26324-24949 (51273) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Clement Chidekhavg 61¢ | $15.12 | $15.37 | +$0.37 | 50% 26097-25756 (51853) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Clement Chidekhavg 62¢ | $9.99 | $9.99 | +$0.08 | 53% 2617-2311 (4928) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Clement Chidekhavg 62¢ | $13.8 | $1.84 | -$0.01 | 58% 47061-33943 (81004) |
0xheavy888Invested
$453.86
Value
$453.98
PnL
+$0.13
Record
56%
8102-6427 (14529)
Invested
$118.09
Value
$120.03
PnL
+$3.87
Record
51%
26324-24949 (51273)
Invested
$15.12
Value
$15.37
PnL
+$0.37
Record
50%
26097-25756 (51853)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.99
PnL
+$0.08
Record
53%
2617-2311 (4928)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$13.8
Value
$1.84
PnL
-$0.01
Record
58%
47061-33943 (81004)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.