Taranto: Felix Gill vs Matteo Martineau

10 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Matteo Martineau (50%) · Matteo Martineau at 77¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 14

Felix Gill24¢Matteo Martineau76¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Matteo Martineau

Consensus Traders

Matteo Martineau 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.5K

Combined PnL

$2.7K

Smart Money Entry

47.4¢ → 76.5¢

+61% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralMatteo Martineau at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Matteo Martineau

10 of 20 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Felix Gill24%

Matteo Martineau77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Matteo Martineau10 traders

Total Value$11.7K

Total Shares15,985

Combined PnL+$2.8K

Felix Gill10 traders

Total Value$657.33

Total Shares1,492

Combined PnL-$109.64

Matteo Martineau — 50%Felix Gill — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Matteo Martineauavg 42.5¢	$3.1K	$4.0K	+$886.12	58% 47486-34282 (81768)
RN1	Matteo Martineauavg 43¢	$2.2K	$3.6K	+$1.3K	53% 62307-54551 (116858)
38 38791873984189	Matteo Martineauavg 44.8¢	$878.49	$1.1K	+$394.56	48% 62393-67249 (129642)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Matteo Martineauavg 61.4¢	$808.03	$972.57	+$164.54	42% 8168-11359 (19527)
nigiri99	Matteo Martineauavg 46.2¢	$682	$663.75	-$18.25	46% 8769-10462 (19231)
FL Flaznorp	Matteo Martineauavg 66.4¢	$520.61	$591.45	+$70.83	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
VE Venusian	Matteo Martineauavg 69.1¢	$511.93	$521.12	+$9.19	49% 1833-1925 (3758)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Felix Gillavg 57.2¢	$301.21	$299.99	-$1.22	50% 21541-21839 (43380)
GC GC-PCTR	Felix Gillavg 56¢	$264.65	$181.94	-$82.7	64% 10178-5767 (15945)
LI LightParadox	Matteo Martineauavg 70.1¢	$173.61	$177.37	+$3.76	49% 1791-1892 (3683)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Felix Gillavg 31.8¢	$195.8	$154.49	+$33.37	53% 827-732 (1559)
└ Matteo Martineau leg	Matteo Martineauavg 50¢	$56.09	$84.69	+$54.03
└ Felix Gill leg	Felix Gillavg 31.8¢	$90.46	$69.79	-$20.66
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Felix Gillavg 32.3¢	$57.22	$54.03	-$3.19	54% 6325-5389 (11714)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Matteo Martineauavg 65.6¢	$39.68	$43.29	+$3.61	52% 14650-13313 (27963)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Felix Gillavg 36.7¢	$43.47	$41.81	-$1.66	64% 5376-2994 (8370)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Matteo Martineauavg 73.4¢	$28.64	$29.45	+$0.81	57% 19424-14372 (33796)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Felix Gillavg 34.1¢	$27.28	$21.2	-$6.08	50% 1843-1850 (3693)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Felix Gillavg 31¢	$29.79	$19.87	-$4.12	60% 4506-3007 (7513)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Felix Gillavg 56¢	$26.32	$15.28	-$11.05	54% 10448-8768 (19216)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Felix Gillavg 55¢	$10	$10.36	+$0.09	53% 2695-2376 (5071)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Felix Gillavg 56¢	$7.15	$10	+$0.2	48% 3686-3932 (7618)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Felix Gillavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.85	+$0.1	52% 9014-8167 (17181)

VeryLucky888

Matteo Martineau

Invested

$3,145.08

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$886.12

Record

58%

47486-34282 (81768)

RN1

Matteo Martineau

Invested

$2,232.56

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

53%

62307-54551 (116858)

38791873984189

Matteo Martineau

Invested

$878.49

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$394.56

Record

48%

62393-67249 (129642)

ferrariChampions2026

Matteo Martineau

Invested

$808.03

Value

$972.57

PnL

+$164.54

Record

42%

8168-11359 (19527)

nigiri99

Matteo Martineau

Invested

$682

Value

$663.75

PnL

-$18.25

Record

46%

8769-10462 (19231)

Flaznorp

Matteo Martineau

Invested

$520.61

Value

$591.45

PnL

+$70.83

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

Venusian

Matteo Martineau

Invested

$511.93

Value

$521.12

PnL

+$9.19

Record

49%

1833-1925 (3758)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Felix Gill

Invested

$301.21

Value

$299.99

PnL

-$1.22

Record

50%

21541-21839 (43380)

GC-PCTR

Felix Gill

Invested

$264.65

Value

$181.94

PnL

-$82.7

Record

64%

10178-5767 (15945)

LightParadox

Matteo Martineau

Invested

$173.61

Value

$177.37

PnL

+$3.76

Record

49%

1791-1892 (3683)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$195.8

Value

$154.49

PnL

+$33.37

Record

53%

827-732 (1559)

Both legs:

Matteo Martineau$56.0950¢+$54.03

Felix Gill$90.4631.8¢-$20.66

EulhunterCTR<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$57.22

Value

$54.03

PnL

-$3.19

Record

54%

6325-5389 (11714)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Matteo Martineau

Invested

$39.68

Value

$43.29

PnL

+$3.61

Record

52%

14650-13313 (27963)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$43.47

Value

$41.81

PnL

-$1.66

Record

64%

5376-2994 (8370)

BillBenter2026<$100

Matteo Martineau

Invested

$28.64

Value

$29.45

PnL

+$0.81

Record

57%

19424-14372 (33796)

LimousinCTR<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$27.28

Value

$21.2

PnL

-$6.08

Record

50%

1843-1850 (3693)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$29.79

Value

$19.87

PnL

-$4.12

Record

60%

4506-3007 (7513)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$26.32

Value

$15.28

PnL

-$11.05

Record

54%

10448-8768 (19216)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$10

Value

$10.36

PnL

+$0.09

Record

53%

2695-2376 (5071)

efntrickCTR<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$7.15

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.2

Record

48%

3686-3932 (7618)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.85

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

9014-8167 (17181)

Research grade

NeutralMatteo Martineau at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Matteo Martineau

10 of 20 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Matteo Martineau wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.