Hersonissos 3: Felix Gill vs Massimo Giunta

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Felix Gill (89%) · Felix Gill at 54¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 18

Felix Gill54¢Massimo Giunta46¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Felix Gill

Consensus Traders

Felix Gill 89%

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$182.24

Smart Money Entry

51.8¢ → 53.5¢

+3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralFelix Gill at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Felix Gill

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Felix Gill54%

Massimo Giunta47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Felix Gill8 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares9,961

Combined PnL+$182.22

Massimo Giunta1 trader

Total Value$2.33

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0.03

Felix Gill — 89%Massimo Giunta — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Felix Gillavg 51.2¢	$2.7K	$2.4K	+$113.45	52% 422-389 (811)
GC GC-P	Felix Gillavg 51.9¢	$850.79	$877.44	+$26.65	20% 92-378 (470)
NM NM-P	Felix Gillavg 51.9¢	$850.79	$877.44	+$26.65	59% 3470-2365 (5835)
FL Flaznorp	Felix Gillavg 53¢	$444.14	$448.33	+$4.19	51% 1779-1735 (3514)
38 38791873984189	Felix Gillavg 52.5¢	$376.51	$383.6	+$7.09	48% 1202-1284 (2486)
DA darkumbreon88	Felix Gillavg 53¢	$192.46	$194.28	+$1.82	61% 919-590 (1509)
PA Pan9X	Felix Gillavg 52.6¢	$114.67	$116.63	+$1.96	49% 629-666 (1295)
SE sentrio<$100	Felix Gillavg 53¢	$43.63	$44.05	+$0.41	37% 325-557 (882)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Massimo Giuntaavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.33	+$0.03	30% 250-585 (835)

VeryLucky888

Felix Gill

Invested

$2,732.58

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$113.45

Record

52%

422-389 (811)

GC-P

Felix Gill

Invested

$850.79

Value

$877.44

PnL

+$26.65

Record

20%

92-378 (470)

NM-P

Felix Gill

Invested

$850.79

Value

$877.44

PnL

+$26.65

Record

59%

3470-2365 (5835)

Flaznorp

Felix Gill

Invested

$444.14

Value

$448.33

PnL

+$4.19

Record

51%

1779-1735 (3514)

38791873984189

Felix Gill

Invested

$376.51

Value

$383.6

PnL

+$7.09

Record

48%

1202-1284 (2486)

darkumbreon88

Felix Gill

Invested

$192.46

Value

$194.28

PnL

+$1.82

Record

61%

919-590 (1509)

Pan9X

Felix Gill

Invested

$114.67

Value

$116.63

PnL

+$1.96

Record

49%

629-666 (1295)

sentrio<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$43.63

Value

$44.05

PnL

+$0.41

Record

37%

325-557 (882)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.33

PnL

+$0.03

Record

30%

250-585 (835)

Research grade

NeutralFelix Gill at 54%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Felix Gill

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Felix Gill wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.