Hersonissos 3: Felix Gill vs Menelaos Efstathiou

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Felix Gill (75%) · Felix Gill at 89¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 16

Felix Gill89¢Menelaos Efstathiou11¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Felix Gill

Consensus Traders

Felix Gill 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$422.2

Smart Money Entry

69¢ → 88.5¢

+28% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralFelix Gill at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Felix Gill

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Felix Gill89%

Menelaos Efstathiou12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Felix Gill9 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares6,021

Combined PnL-$124.74

Menelaos Efstathiou3 traders

Total Value$766.14

Total Shares1,474

Combined PnL+$546.94

Felix Gill — 75%Menelaos Efstathiou — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Felix Gillavg 66¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$20.85	58% 3743-2698 (6441)
VeryLucky888CTR	Menelaos Efstathiouavg 17¢	$244.83	$755.58	+$510.92	48% 208-228 (436)
TH thirdt1me	Felix Gillavg 72.5¢	$357.15	$381.8	+$24.65	33% 54-112 (166)
DA darkumbreon88	Felix Gillavg 82¢	$496.25	$287.46	-$208.79	61% 891-567 (1458)
TH thestingsnake	Felix Gillavg 72.9¢	$368.69	$269.99	+$28.65	16% 60-327 (387)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Felix Gillavg 70.2¢	$129.92	$133.59	+$8.78	50% 1378-1396 (2774)
└ Felix Gill leg	Felix Gillavg 70.2¢	$80.21	$98.83	+$18.62
└ Menelaos Efstathiou leg	Menelaos Efstathiouavg 18.1¢	$46.5	$34.76	-$9.85
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Felix Gillavg 76.4¢	$119.73	$119.47	-$0.26	56% 3774-2944 (6718)
BA babybells	Felix Gillavg 68.4¢	$105.46	$117.63	+$12.18	15% 62-357 (419)
machinelearned<$100	Felix Gillavg 75¢	$90	$84.6	-$5.4	31% 257-580 (837)
LI LightParadox<$100	Felix Gillavg 70.3¢	$41.82	$44.29	+$2.48	24% 202-628 (830)
VE Venusian<$100	Felix Gillavg 74.6¢	$14.53	$15.43	+$0.91	24% 205-634 (839)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Menelaos Efstathiouavg 22¢	$8.71	$8.89	+$0.19	25% 202-618 (820)
SC SchruteBucksCTR<$100	Menelaos Efstathiouavg 18¢	$54.38	$1.68	+$35.83	18% 107-477 (584)

RN1

Felix Gill

Invested

$2,751.73

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$20.85

Record

58%

3743-2698 (6441)

VeryLucky888CTR

Menelaos Efstathiou

Invested

$244.83

Value

$755.58

PnL

+$510.92

Record

48%

208-228 (436)

thirdt1me

Felix Gill

Invested

$357.15

Value

$381.8

PnL

+$24.65

Record

33%

54-112 (166)

darkumbreon88

Felix Gill

Invested

$496.25

Value

$287.46

PnL

-$208.79

Record

61%

891-567 (1458)

thestingsnake

Felix Gill

Invested

$368.69

Value

$269.99

PnL

+$28.65

Record

16%

60-327 (387)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$129.92

Value

$133.59

PnL

+$8.78

Record

50%

1378-1396 (2774)

Both legs:

Felix Gill$80.2170.2¢+$18.62

Menelaos Efstathiou$46.518.1¢-$9.85

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Felix Gill

Invested

$119.73

Value

$119.47

PnL

-$0.26

Record

56%

3774-2944 (6718)

babybells

Felix Gill

Invested

$105.46

Value

$117.63

PnL

+$12.18

Record

15%

62-357 (419)

machinelearned<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$90

Value

$84.6

PnL

-$5.4

Record

31%

257-580 (837)

LightParadox<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$41.82

Value

$44.29

PnL

+$2.48

Record

24%

202-628 (830)

Venusian<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$14.53

Value

$15.43

PnL

+$0.91

Record

24%

205-634 (839)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Menelaos Efstathiou

Invested

$8.71

Value

$8.89

PnL

+$0.19

Record

25%

202-618 (820)

SchruteBucksCTR<$100

Menelaos Efstathiou

Invested

$54.38

Value

$1.68

PnL

+$35.83

Record

18%

107-477 (584)

Research grade

NeutralFelix Gill at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Felix Gill

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Felix Gill wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.