Taranto: Felix Gill vs Jay Clarke

16 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Felix Gill (84%) · Felix Gill at 51¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 13

Felix Gill51¢Jay Clarke49¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Felix Gill

Consensus Traders

Felix Gill 84%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.4K

Combined PnL

$-2.0K

Smart Money Entry

70¢ → 50.5¢

-28% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralFelix Gill at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Felix Gill

16 of 19 top traders (84%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Felix Gill51%

Jay Clarke50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jay Clarke3 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares7,915

Combined PnL-$790.53

Felix Gill16 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares9,009

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Jay Clarke — 16%Felix Gill — 84%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on Felix Gill. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFelix Gill 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpFelix Gill 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrFelix Gill 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedFelix Gill 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Felix Gill 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Jay Clarkeavg 31.7¢	$2.7K	$3.0K	+$270.09	51% 4823-4685 (9508)
└ Jay Clarke leg	Jay Clarkeavg 31.7¢	$1.9K	$2.4K	+$414.95
└ Felix Gill leg	Felix Gillavg 64.3¢	$728.19	$696.59	-$144.86
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Jay Clarkeavg 47.1¢	$3.6K	$2.6K	-$812.01	42% 8022-11209 (19231)
LI Limousin	Felix Gillavg 73.9¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$124.37	51% 1635-1545 (3180)
VE Venusian	Felix Gillavg 72.6¢	$2.1K	$1.4K	-$695.15	50% 1594-1623 (3217)
LI LightParadox	Felix Gillavg 60.1¢	$421.7	$376.12	-$45.58	50% 1582-1596 (3178)
MA MadridTime	Felix Gillavg 78.9¢	$462.93	$287.65	-$175.28	49% 1537-1615 (3152)
38 38791873984189	Felix Gillavg 71.8¢	$328.41	$282.61	-$43.05	48% 61871-66733 (128604)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Felix Gillavg 71¢	$355.24	$244.99	-$110.25	59% 33076-23246 (56322)
TH thestingsnake	Felix Gillavg 63¢	$415.55	$235.48	-$37.66	60% 4477-2988 (7465)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Jay Clarkeavg 47.6¢	$231.53	$189.6	-$41.93	51% 26315-24941 (51256)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Felix Gillavg 56.9¢	$309.35	$180.93	-$0.7	53% 807-715 (1522)
└ Felix Gill leg	Felix Gillavg 56.9¢	$118.29	$132.09	+$13
└ Jay Clarke leg	Jay Clarkeavg 37.4¢	$50.09	$48.84	-$13.7
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Jay Clarkeavg 25.9¢	$76.28	$139.7	+$63.42	46% 1661-1945 (3606)
LI Lilybaeum	Felix Gillavg 49.9¢	$120.58	$118.3	+$0.14	61% 14438-9369 (23807)
0xheavy888<$100	Felix Gillavg 49¢	$69.47	$84.36	+$14.89	56% 8099-6423 (14522)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Felix Gillavg 50¢	$52.56	$70.56	+$18	54% 6301-5367 (11668)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Felix Gillavg 78.9¢	$77.26	$65.58	-$11.68	52% 14581-13270 (27851)
└ Felix Gill leg	Felix Gillavg 78.9¢	$47.26	$44.04	-$3.22
└ Jay Clarke leg	Jay Clarkeavg 36.9¢	$30	$21.54	-$8.46
VeryLucky888<$100	Felix Gillavg 49¢	$50.15	$50.15	-$0	58% 47033-33917 (80950)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Felix Gillavg 76.3¢	$48.85	$31.36	-$17.49	57% 19366-14337 (33703)
TRCM<$100	Felix Gillavg 73.3¢	$34.01	$28.53	-$5.48	55% 4068-3281 (7349)
CI cigarettes<$100	Felix Gillavg 37¢	$11.98	$20.56	+$8.58	53% 23824-20966 (44790)
PA Pan9X<$100	Felix Gillavg 50¢	$15.5	$15.19	-$0.31	54% 10087-8472 (18559)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Felix Gillavg 50¢	$5	$4.9	-$0.1	82% 7472-1649 (9121)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Jay Clarke

Invested

$2,665.63

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$270.09

Record

51%

4823-4685 (9508)

Both legs:

Jay Clarke$1,937.4531.7¢+$414.95

Felix Gill$728.1964.3¢-$144.86

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Jay Clarke

Invested

$3,631.12

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$812.01

Record

42%

8022-11209 (19231)

Limousin

Felix Gill

Invested

$2,002.3

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$124.37

Record

51%

1635-1545 (3180)

Venusian

Felix Gill

Invested

$2,136.21

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$695.15

Record

50%

1594-1623 (3217)

LightParadox

Felix Gill

Invested

$421.7

Value

$376.12

PnL

-$45.58

Record

50%

1582-1596 (3178)

MadridTime

Felix Gill

Invested

$462.93

Value

$287.65

PnL

-$175.28

Record

49%

1537-1615 (3152)

38791873984189

Felix Gill

Invested

$328.41

Value

$282.61

PnL

-$43.05

Record

48%

61871-66733 (128604)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Felix Gill

Invested

$355.24

Value

$244.99

PnL

-$110.25

Record

59%

33076-23246 (56322)

thestingsnake

Felix Gill

Invested

$415.55

Value

$235.48

PnL

-$37.66

Record

60%

4477-2988 (7465)

FlaznorpCTR

Jay Clarke

Invested

$231.53

Value

$189.6

PnL

-$41.93

Record

51%

26315-24941 (51256)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$309.35

Value

$180.93

PnL

-$0.7

Record

53%

807-715 (1522)

Both legs:

Felix Gill$118.2956.9¢+$13

Jay Clarke$50.0937.4¢-$13.7

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Jay Clarke

Invested

$76.28

Value

$139.7

PnL

+$63.42

Record

46%

1661-1945 (3606)

Lilybaeum

Felix Gill

Invested

$120.58

Value

$118.3

PnL

+$0.14

Record

61%

14438-9369 (23807)

0xheavy888<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$69.47

Value

$84.36

PnL

+$14.89

Record

56%

8099-6423 (14522)

Eulhunter<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$52.56

Value

$70.56

PnL

+$18

Record

54%

6301-5367 (11668)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$77.26

Value

$65.58

PnL

-$11.68

Record

52%

14581-13270 (27851)

Both legs:

Felix Gill$47.2678.9¢-$3.22

Jay Clarke$3036.9¢-$8.46

VeryLucky888<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$50.15

Value

$50.15

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

47033-33917 (80950)

BillBenter2026<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$48.85

Value

$31.36

PnL

-$17.49

Record

57%

19366-14337 (33703)

TRCM<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$34.01

Value

$28.53

PnL

-$5.48

Record

55%

4068-3281 (7349)

cigarettes<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$11.98

Value

$20.56

PnL

+$8.58

Record

53%

23824-20966 (44790)

Pan9X<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$15.5

Value

$15.19

PnL

-$0.31

Record

54%

10087-8472 (18559)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

Value

$4.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

82%

7472-1649 (9121)

Research grade

NeutralFelix Gill at 51%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Felix Gill

16 of 19 top traders (84%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on Felix Gill. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFelix Gill 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpFelix Gill 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrFelix Gill 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedFelix Gill 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Felix Gill 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Felix Gill wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.