Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Benjamin Thomas George, while the market favors Nikola Slavic (94%). 5 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Drummondville: Benjamin Thomas George vs Nikola Slavic

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Benjamin Thomas George (36%) · Benjamin Thomas George at 6.5¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 22

Benjamin Thomas George7¢Nikola Slavic93¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Benjamin Thomas George

Consensus Traders

Benjamin Thomas George 36%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$34.4

Smart Money Entry

17.6¢ → 6.5¢

-63% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidBenjamin Thomas George at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Benjamin Thomas George

5 of 14 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Nikola Slavic 94%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Benjamin Thomas George7%

Nikola Slavic94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nikola Slavic9 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,465

Combined PnL+$52.11

Benjamin Thomas George5 traders

Total Value$918.34

Total Shares6,624

Combined PnL-$86.5

Nikola Slavic — 64%Benjamin Thomas George — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Nikola Slavicavg 94.5¢	$930.71	$940.58	+$9.87	38% 1332-2185 (3517)
NO NotJumpCTR	Benjamin Thomas Georgeavg 50¢	$1.9K	$572.24	+$7.27	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Benjamin Thomas Georgeavg 5¢	$210.53	$231.58	+$21.05	50% 2851-2894 (5745)
BA babybells	Nikola Slavicavg 81.5¢	$145.82	$142.31	-$3.51	34% 272-524 (796)
TH thirdt1me	Nikola Slavicavg 52.7¢	$147.08	$139.34	+$37.28	48% 373-412 (785)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Benjamin Thomas Georgeavg 36.1¢	$265.87	$90.35	-$175.53	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
└ Nikola Slavic leg	Nikola Slavicavg 81.5¢	$54.63	$63.99	+$9.35
└ Benjamin Thomas George leg	Benjamin Thomas Georgeavg 36.1¢	$211.24	$26.36	-$184.88
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Benjamin Thomas Georgeavg 36¢	$52.2	$63.8	+$11.6	44% 92-117 (209)
CA CandleHammerDrums<$100	Nikola Slavicavg 69¢	$42.44	$50.86	+$8.42	48% 638-680 (1318)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Benjamin Thomas Georgeavg 21¢	$166.81	$43.69	-$123.12	12% 67-474 (541)
38 38791873984189<$100	Nikola Slavicavg 62¢	$42.9	$39.44	-$3.46	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Nikola Slavicavg 82.6¢	$15.57	$17.16	+$1.59	53% 220-193 (413)
MA MadridTime<$100	Nikola Slavicavg 94¢	$9.48	$9.53	+$0.05	38% 1354-2191 (3545)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Nikola Slavicavg 65¢	$10	$8.77	-$1.23	47% 226-251 (477)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Benjamin Thomas Georgeavg 30.8¢	$16.67	$7.03	-$3.3	36% 256-453 (709)
PA Pan9X<$100	Nikola Slavicavg 59.3¢	$50.73	$6.58	+$3.1	50% 2190-2198 (4388)

Limousin

Nikola Slavic

Invested

$930.71

Value

$940.58

PnL

+$9.87

Record

38%

1332-2185 (3517)

NotJumpCTR

Benjamin Thomas George

Invested

$1,912.03

Value

$572.24

PnL

+$7.27

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Benjamin Thomas George

Invested

$210.53

Value

$231.58

PnL

+$21.05

Record

50%

2851-2894 (5745)

babybells

Nikola Slavic

Invested

$145.82

Value

$142.31

PnL

-$3.51

Record

34%

272-524 (796)

thirdt1me

Nikola Slavic

Invested

$147.08

Value

$139.34

PnL

+$37.28

Record

48%

373-412 (785)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Benjamin Thomas George

Invested

$265.87

Value

$90.35

PnL

-$175.53

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

Both legs:

Nikola Slavic$54.6381.5¢+$9.35

Benjamin Thomas George$211.2436.1¢-$184.88

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Benjamin Thomas George

Invested

$52.2

Value

$63.8

PnL

+$11.6

Record

44%

92-117 (209)

CandleHammerDrums<$100

Nikola Slavic

Invested

$42.44

Value

$50.86

PnL

+$8.42

Record

48%

638-680 (1318)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Benjamin Thomas George

Invested

$166.81

Value

$43.69

PnL

-$123.12

Record

12%

67-474 (541)

38791873984189<$100

Nikola Slavic

Invested

$42.9

Value

$39.44

PnL

-$3.46

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

Eulhunter<$100

Nikola Slavic

Invested

$15.57

Value

$17.16

PnL

+$1.59

Record

53%

220-193 (413)

MadridTime<$100

Nikola Slavic

Invested

$9.48

Value

$9.53

PnL

+$0.05

Record

38%

1354-2191 (3545)

glennyorkshire<$100

Nikola Slavic

Invested

$10

Value

$8.77

PnL

-$1.23

Record

47%

226-251 (477)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Benjamin Thomas George

Invested

$16.67

Value

$7.03

PnL

-$3.3

Record

36%

256-453 (709)

Pan9X<$100

Nikola Slavic

Invested

$50.73

Value

$6.58

PnL

+$3.1

Record

50%

2190-2198 (4388)

Research grade

AvoidBenjamin Thomas George at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Benjamin Thomas George

5 of 14 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Nikola Slavic 94%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Benjamin Thomas George wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance7.8%

6.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1174.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

1274.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.