Hersonissos 3: Michael Geerts vs Juan Martin

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Juan Martin (54%) · Juan Martin at 65¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 16

Michael Geerts36¢Juan Martin64¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Juan Martin

Consensus Traders

Juan Martin 54%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

-$164.84

Smart Money Entry

58.3¢ → 64.5¢

+11% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralJuan Martin at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Juan Martin

7 of 13 top traders (54%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Michael Geerts36%

Juan Martin65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Juan Martin7 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,860

Combined PnL+$119.09

Michael Geerts6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,704

Combined PnL-$283.94

Juan Martin — 54%Michael Geerts — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Juan Martinavg 39.6¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$321.93	54% 1596-1343 (2939)
└ Juan Martin leg	Juan Martinavg 39.6¢	$852.45	$1.1K	+$277.37
└ Michael Geerts leg	Michael Geertsavg 43.7¢	$513.41	$557.97	+$44.55
VE Venusian	Juan Martinavg 64¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$8.4	24% 204-632 (836)
0xheavy888CTR	Michael Geertsavg 65.9¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$121.11	54% 93-78 (171)
LI Limousin	Juan Martinavg 56.3¢	$818.5	$865.05	+$46.55	24% 199-638 (837)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Michael Geertsavg 38.7¢	$801.8	$479.36	-$2.07	48% 695-751 (1446)
└ Michael Geerts leg	Michael Geertsavg 38.7¢	$416.32	$382.34	-$33.99
└ Juan Martin leg	Juan Martinavg 55.6¢	$83.62	$97.02	+$31.92
TH thirdt1meCTR	Michael Geertsavg 44.6¢	$806.74	$475.47	-$127.27	31% 51-112 (163)
LI LightParadox	Juan Martinavg 49.6¢	$300.71	$360.7	+$59.99	24% 201-625 (826)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Michael Geertsavg 45.8¢	$160.59	$159.61	-$0.98	56% 3774-2942 (6716)
└ Juan Martin leg	Juan Martinavg 53.7¢	$78.83	$87.38	+$8.55
└ Michael Geerts leg	Michael Geertsavg 45.8¢	$81.75	$72.23	-$9.52
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Michael Geertsavg 46¢	$115.53	$140.87	+$25.34	34% 161-312 (473)
└ Juan Martin leg	Juan Martinavg 35¢	$46.53	$71.12	+$24.59
└ Michael Geerts leg	Michael Geertsavg 46¢	$69	$69.75	+$0.75
FL FlaznorpCTR	Michael Geertsavg 43.1¢	$117.99	$119.02	+$1.03	50% 1375-1392 (2767)
BA babybellsCTR	Michael Geertsavg 48¢	$141.5	$104.73	-$36.78	14% 60-356 (416)
RN1CTR<$100	Michael Geertsavg 50¢	$20.81	$21.5	+$0.69	58% 3741-2693 (6434)
MA MadridTime<$100	Juan Martinavg 48¢	$20.57	$20.78	+$0.21	24% 200-617 (817)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Juan Martinavg 56.2¢	$16.85	$18.45	+$1.6	11% 57-450 (507)
PA Pan9X<$100	Juan Martinavg 33¢	$10.56	$13.12	+$2.56	48% 400-437 (837)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Juan Martinavg 58¢	$8.67	$8.45	-$0.22	53% 49-43 (92)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Michael Geertsavg 63¢	$8.01	$7.5	-$0.51	22% 77-281 (358)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Juan Martin

Invested

$1,365.86

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$321.93

Record

54%

1596-1343 (2939)

Both legs:

Juan Martin$852.4539.6¢+$277.37

Michael Geerts$513.4143.7¢+$44.55

Venusian

Juan Martin

Invested

$1,075.33

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$8.4

Record

24%

204-632 (836)

0xheavy888CTR

Michael Geerts

Invested

$1,150.5

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$121.11

Record

54%

93-78 (171)

Limousin

Juan Martin

Invested

$818.5

Value

$865.05

PnL

+$46.55

Record

24%

199-638 (837)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Michael Geerts

Invested

$801.8

Value

$479.36

PnL

-$2.07

Record

48%

695-751 (1446)

Both legs:

Michael Geerts$416.3238.7¢-$33.99

Juan Martin$83.6255.6¢+$31.92

thirdt1meCTR

Michael Geerts

Invested

$806.74

Value

$475.47

PnL

-$127.27

Record

31%

51-112 (163)

LightParadox

Juan Martin

Invested

$300.71

Value

$360.7

PnL

+$59.99

Record

24%

201-625 (826)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Michael Geerts

Invested

$160.59

Value

$159.61

PnL

-$0.98

Record

56%

3774-2942 (6716)

Both legs:

Juan Martin$78.8353.7¢+$8.55

Michael Geerts$81.7545.8¢-$9.52

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Michael Geerts

Invested

$115.53

Value

$140.87

PnL

+$25.34

Record

34%

161-312 (473)

Both legs:

Juan Martin$46.5335¢+$24.59

Michael Geerts$6946¢+$0.75

FlaznorpCTR

Michael Geerts

Invested

$117.99

Value

$119.02

PnL

+$1.03

Record

50%

1375-1392 (2767)

babybellsCTR

Michael Geerts

Invested

$141.5

Value

$104.73

PnL

-$36.78

Record

14%

60-356 (416)

RN1CTR<$100

Michael Geerts

Invested

$20.81

Value

$21.5

PnL

+$0.69

Record

58%

3741-2693 (6434)

MadridTime<$100

Juan Martin

Invested

$20.57

Value

$20.78

PnL

+$0.21

Record

24%

200-617 (817)

BillBenter2026<$100

Juan Martin

Invested

$16.85

Value

$18.45

PnL

+$1.6

Record

11%

57-450 (507)

Pan9X<$100

Juan Martin

Invested

$10.56

Value

$13.12

PnL

+$2.56

Record

48%

400-437 (837)

Eulhunter<$100

Juan Martin

Invested

$8.67

Value

$8.45

PnL

-$0.22

Record

53%

49-43 (92)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Michael Geerts

Invested

$8.01

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$0.51

Record

22%

77-281 (358)

Research grade

NeutralJuan Martin at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Juan Martin

7 of 13 top traders (54%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Juan Martin wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.