Charlottesville: Alexis Galarneau vs Daniel Milavsky

9 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Daniel Milavsky (50%) · Daniel Milavsky at 61¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 10

Alexis Galarneau39¢Daniel Milavsky61¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Daniel Milavsky

Consensus Traders

Daniel Milavsky 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

-$171.47

Smart Money Entry

61.4¢ → 61¢

-1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralDaniel Milavsky at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Daniel Milavsky

9 of 18 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Alexis Galarneau39%

Daniel Milavsky61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Daniel Milavsky9 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares6,806

Combined PnL-$190.9

Alexis Galarneau9 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,437

Combined PnL+$19.44

Daniel Milavsky — 50%Alexis Galarneau — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239	Daniel Milavskyavg 63.8¢	$3.6K	$3.4K	-$186.5	38% 519-831 (1350)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Alexis Galarneauavg 47.8¢	$575.21	$515.36	-$75.91	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
└ Alexis Galarneau leg	Alexis Galarneauavg 47.8¢	$442.68	$365.92	-$76.76
└ Daniel Milavsky leg	Daniel Milavskyavg 53.7¢	$132.53	$149.44	+$0.85
NO NotJumpCTR	Alexis Galarneauavg 36¢	$360	$395	+$35	44% 10222-13273 (23495)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Alexis Galarneauavg 46.1¢	$302.88	$331.57	+$22.13	50% 512-509 (1021)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Alexis Galarneauavg 48.1¢	$344.8	$282.93	-$61.86	52% 6711-6252 (12963)
VeryLucky888	Daniel Milavskyavg 48.6¢	$251.56	$248.3	-$0.26	58% 44610-32488 (77098)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Alexis Galarneauavg 59.8¢	$238.01	$195.45	-$42.56	54% 906-787 (1693)
└ Alexis Galarneau leg	Alexis Galarneauavg 59.8¢	$151.13	$99.86	-$51.27
└ Daniel Milavsky leg	Daniel Milavskyavg 55¢	$86.88	$95.59	+$8.71
38 38791873984189	Daniel Milavskyavg 53¢	$205.71	$192.12	-$13.58	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Alexis Galarneauavg 51.3¢	$161.1	$161.57	+$0.47	50% 20187-20523 (40710)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Alexis Galarneauavg 52.4¢	$120.65	$133.9	+$16.15	60% 4225-2826 (7051)
poshposhCTR	Alexis Galarneauavg 38¢	$114	$118.5	+$4.5	57% 11866-8957 (20823)
0xheavy888<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 50.7¢	$92.87	$92.53	-$0.33	55% 7598-6093 (13691)
CI cigarettes<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 41¢	$39.5	$50	+$10.5	54% 22035-19135 (41170)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Alexis Galarneauavg 39¢	$39	$39.5	+$0.5	47% 10564-11815 (22379)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Alexis Galarneauavg 36.5¢	$36.5	$39.5	+$3	52% 14121-12894 (27015)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 48.5¢	$26.11	$26.12	+$0.01	61% 13937-8970 (22907)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Alexis Galarneauavg 51.3¢	$13.15	$12.7	-$0.45	52% 830-771 (1601)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 54¢	$10	$9.16	-$0.83	74% 2370-822 (3192)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 46.2¢	$4.62	$4.45	-$0.17	54% 6054-5063 (11117)
LI Limousin<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 53.2¢	$2.76	$3.04	+$0.27	56% 942-736 (1678)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$3,565.33

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$186.5

Record

38%

519-831 (1350)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Alexis Galarneau

Invested

$575.21

Value

$515.36

PnL

-$75.91

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

Both legs:

Alexis Galarneau$442.6847.8¢-$76.76

Daniel Milavsky$132.5353.7¢+$0.85

NotJumpCTR

Alexis Galarneau

Invested

$360

Value

$395

PnL

+$35

Record

44%

10222-13273 (23495)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Alexis Galarneau

Invested

$302.88

Value

$331.57

PnL

+$22.13

Record

50%

512-509 (1021)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Alexis Galarneau

Invested

$344.8

Value

$282.93

PnL

-$61.86

Record

52%

6711-6252 (12963)

VeryLucky888

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$251.56

Value

$248.3

PnL

-$0.26

Record

58%

44610-32488 (77098)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Alexis Galarneau

Invested

$238.01

Value

$195.45

PnL

-$42.56

Record

54%

906-787 (1693)

Both legs:

Alexis Galarneau$151.1359.8¢-$51.27

Daniel Milavsky$86.8855¢+$8.71

38791873984189

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$205.71

Value

$192.12

PnL

-$13.58

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Alexis Galarneau

Invested

$161.1

Value

$161.57

PnL

+$0.47

Record

50%

20187-20523 (40710)

thestingsnakeCTR

Alexis Galarneau

Invested

$120.65

Value

$133.9

PnL

+$16.15

Record

60%

4225-2826 (7051)

poshposhCTR

Alexis Galarneau

Invested

$114

Value

$118.5

PnL

+$4.5

Record

57%

11866-8957 (20823)

0xheavy888<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$92.87

Value

$92.53

PnL

-$0.33

Record

55%

7598-6093 (13691)

cigarettes<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$39.5

Value

$50

PnL

+$10.5

Record

54%

22035-19135 (41170)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Alexis Galarneau

Invested

$39

Value

$39.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

47%

10564-11815 (22379)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Alexis Galarneau

Invested

$36.5

Value

$39.5

PnL

+$3

Record

52%

14121-12894 (27015)

Lilybaeum<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$26.11

Value

$26.12

PnL

+$0.01

Record

61%

13937-8970 (22907)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Alexis Galarneau

Invested

$13.15

Value

$12.7

PnL

-$0.45

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$10

Value

$9.16

PnL

-$0.83

Record

74%

2370-822 (3192)

Eulhunter<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$4.62

Value

$4.45

PnL

-$0.17

Record

54%

6054-5063 (11117)

Limousin<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$2.76

Value

$3.04

PnL

+$0.27

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

Research grade

NeutralDaniel Milavsky at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Daniel Milavsky

9 of 18 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Daniel Milavsky wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.