Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Alexis Galarneau, while the market favors Stefan Kozlov (55%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Knoxville: Alexis Galarneau vs Stefan Kozlov
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Alexis Galarneau (80%) · Alexis Galarneau at 46¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
Alexis Galarneau
5
Alexis Galarneau 80%
$4.0K
$88.8
44.2¢ → 45.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralAlexis Galarneau at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Stefan Kozlov 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Alexis Galarneauavg 44¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$49.54 | 58% 3768-2723 (6491) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Alexis Galarneauavg 44.4¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$38.92 | 51% 252-247 (499) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Alexis Galarneauavg 45¢ | $182.7 | $182.7 | +$0 | 50% 1423-1425 (2848) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Alexis Galarneauavg 44¢ | $17.22 | $17.61 | +$0.39 | 56% 117-91 (208) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Stefan Kozlovavg 55¢ | $5.05 | $5 | -$0.05 | 25% 171-513 (684) |
RN1CTRInvested
$2,179.76
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$49.54
Record
58%
3768-2723 (6491)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,549.23
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$38.92
Record
51%
252-247 (499)
Invested
$182.7
Value
$182.7
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1423-1425 (2848)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$17.22
Value
$17.61
PnL
+$0.39
Record
56%
117-91 (208)
Invested
$5.05
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.05
Record
25%
171-513 (684)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.